Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
348 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0347 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022/

Today.

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected to spread across
Central AL this morning as a warm front lifts through the region. A
fast-moving complex of thunderstorms will then move eastward through
the area. Damaging winds will be the main concern with these
thunderstorms given the ample forcing and shear. There will likely
be a sharp northward gradient in the severe threat as surface based
instability struggles to lift northward into our area behind the
warm front. Based on current guidance the area with the best chance
for damaging winds and maybe a tornado or two will be generally
along and south of the Hwy 80/I-85 corridor, which is where the high
resolution guidance suggests the surface based instability build in.
A few storms this morning in MS have produced large hail along the
warm front, so I've added mentioned for hail in the hazardous
weather outlook with any storms that lift northward this morning
with the warm front into Central AL.

The complex of storms should push east of our area by the mid-
afternoon, ending the threat for severe weather across Central AL.

Wednesday.

As we go into Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach from the
northwest. Model guidance has been very consistent in showing an
unstable airmass across all of Central AL ahead of the frontal
passage. The main low pressure system itself, along with most of the
upper level dynamics are displaced well to the north, which limits
our mid and upper level forcing along the front. Guidance has also
continued to show a good amount of dry air aloft with this system,
which could limit the amount of deep convection along the front as
it moves in. Additionally, recent high resolution guidance has
trended with more convective development just to our south
associated with a pre-frontal shortwave that moves across the Gulf
Coast, which could limit the low level moisture return for Central
AL. These potential limitations cast a good amount of uncertainty in
the severe threat on Wednesday. If thunderstorms are able to develop
along the front, or ahead of the front in the unstable airmass, they
could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail as the
main threats. I can't completely rule out the tornado potential, but
the likelihood remains on the lower end. The question will be
what wins out - the shallow moist layer with the cold front or the
dry air aloft.

The front is expected to move out of the area by Wednesday night
around midnight with much cooler and drier air advecting from the
northwest.

25/Owen

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0347 AM CDT Tue Apr 05 2022/

Thursday through Monday.

The main system will be exiting the region Thursday morning and
giving way to overall dry weather through the weekend. With that
said an upper low will begin to swing into the region Friday
afternoon and into Saturday. There some hints that some light
rain/drizzle may be around in the northeast Friday and Saturday
afternoon as several shortwaves slide around the upper low. For now
will just go with some increased clouds during the afternoon.
Another concern on Saturday and Sunday mornings will be the
potential frost and possible freeze in the northern third of the
area. The potential frost is looking pretty good, with a low
confidence of a freeze for a few location. Given the April timeframe
now will go ahead and add cold into the HWO for Saturday morning and
may need to add Sunday morning as well in the update tomorrow night.
Moisture returns to the west on Monday and remains in the area
through Tuesday before finally pushing east some by the middle of
next week.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Good flight conditions right now, but things will be changing
fairly quickly this morning as the MCS begins to swing into the
area. Vis/cloud and rain will increase in intensity after 12z in
the north and west, then south and east after 15z. Conditions will
improve after 2 to 4z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A strong storm system will bring widespread showers and storms to
the area today, with locally heavy rainfall. All areas can expect
gusty winds today as a squall line will move rapidly from west to
east, which could produce wind gusts above 50 mph. The threat of
higher winds will be mainly along and south of the Highway 80/I-85
corridor. There will be a lull in the rain Tuesday night. A cold
front will push into north Alabama Wednesday afternoon and trigger
scattered to numerous showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  59  80  45  66 / 100  10  70  60   0
Anniston    72  63  80  48  66 / 100  20  60  70   0
Birmingham  74  63  80  48  67 / 100  10  70  60   0
Tuscaloosa  77  64  82  47  67 / 100  10  70  40   0
Calera      75  65  81  50  67 / 100  10  70  60   0
Auburn      71  65  78  53  68 / 100  30  70  70   0
Montgomery  76  67  82  53  70 / 100  20  60  70   0
Troy        77  66  83  54  71 / 100  30  70  70   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
401 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-061215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
401 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible today. Damaging winds up to
60 mph and large hail will be the main threat with tornadoes
possible. Localized flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday. Damaging winds
and
hail are the main threats, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Today and Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
439 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALZ033-040-051015-
Dallas AL-Perry AL-
439 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Perry
and central Dallas Counties through 515 AM CDT...

At 438 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bogue Chitto, or 15 miles southeast of Uniontown, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Selma, Valley Grande, Orrville, Bogue Chitto, Paul M Grist State
Park, Memorial Stadium, Marion Junction, Dallas County Horse Arena,
Potter Station, Skyharbor Airport, Radford, Summerfield, Hazen,
Suttle, Selma University, Barrett Creek and Edmund Pettus Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3233 8742 3270 8712 3254 8690 3252 8689
      3251 8689 3222 8725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0938Z 220DEG 32KT 3233 8729

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
440 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALZ040>042-051015-
Autauga AL-Lowndes AL-Dallas AL-
440 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Autauga, northwestern Lowndes and southeastern Dallas Counties
through 515 AM CDT...

At 440 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Belknap, or 17 miles south of Selmont-West Selmont, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
White Hall, Benton, Dallas Lake, Belknap, Gardner Island, Tyler,
Dannelly Reservoir, Collirene, Carlowville, Robert F. Henry Lock And
Dam and Minter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8715 3248 8686 3230 8662 3205 8693
      3205 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0940Z 220DEG 36KT 3212 8702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
441 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALZ042-051015-
Lowndes AL-
441 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Lowndes
County through 515 AM CDT...

At 441 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lowndes County Airport, or near Fort Deposit, moving northeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Deposit, Hayneville, Gordonville, Lowndes County Airport,
Beechwood, Calhoun, Mount Willing, Clover Hill and Letohatchee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8681 3234 8649 3234 8648 3233 8647
      3231 8649 3228 8648 3227 8645 3224 8641
      3207 8641 3196 8652 3196 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 0941Z 220DEG 36KT 3198 8668

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
502 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

ALZ039-051100-
Marengo AL-
502 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Marengo
County through 600 AM CDT...

At 502 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Butler, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Demopolis, Linden, Jefferson, Sweet Water, Myrtlewood, Dayton,
Putnam, Freddie Jones Field, Pin Hook, Nanafalia, Chickasaw State
Park, Half Acre, Old Spring Hill, Calvary and Tompkinsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 8811 3206 8807 3208 8804 3214 8804
      3215 8802 3228 8802 3231 8798 3231 8795
      3228 8793 3231 8793 3236 8801 3254 8783
      3252 8782 3252 8779 3236 8759 3199 8802
      3199 8807 3202 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 225DEG 29KT 3212 8812

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

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