Tornado Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

965 
WWUS54 KBMX 031927
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
127 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALC063-119-032015-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220203T2015Z/
Greene AL-Sumter AL-
127 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
GREENE AND EAST CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTIES...
    
At 127 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Bluffport, or near Livingston, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Eutaw, Forkland, Boligee, Epes, Thornhill, Allison, Walden Quarters,
Tishabee, Five Points Intersection, Belmont, Birdine and Eutaw
Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8774 3294 8774 3293 8777 3290 8777
      3290 8781 3286 8783 3280 8782 3276 8787
      3277 8783 3275 8781 3271 8783 3272 8780
      3266 8779 3266 8775 3265 8774 3264 8781
      3261 8780 3250 8799 3265 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 231DEG 37KT 3259 8807 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

05

577 
WWUS54 KBMX 031938
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
138 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALC119-031948-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220203T2015Z/
Sumter AL-
138 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for west central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3267 8806 3269 8804 3270 8805 3295 8774
      3292 8777 3290 8777 3289 8780 3286 8783
      3280 8782 3276 8787 3277 8783 3275 8781
      3271 8783 3271 8780 3266 8779 3262 8790
      3263 8793 3260 8802 3264 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 231DEG 33KT 3264 8799 

$$

ALC063-032015-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220203T2015Z/
Greene AL-
138 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY...
    
At 138 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Tishabee, or 11 miles east of Livingston, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Eutaw, Forkland, Thornhill, Walden Quarters, Tishabee, Five Points
Intersection and Eutaw Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3267 8806 3269 8804 3270 8805 3295 8774
      3292 8777 3290 8777 3289 8780 3286 8783
      3280 8782 3276 8787 3277 8783 3275 8781
      3271 8783 3271 8780 3266 8779 3262 8790
      3263 8793 3260 8802 3264 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 231DEG 33KT 3264 8799 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

05

617 
WWUS54 KBMX 031947
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
147 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALC063-032015-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220203T2015Z/
Greene AL-
147 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY...
    
At 147 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Thornhill, or 9 miles south of Eutaw, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Thornhill and Walden Quarters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8795 3270 8797 3282 8782 3280 8782
      3276 8787 3277 8783 3275 8781 3271 8783
      3271 8780 3269 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 241DEG 26KT 3271 8790 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

05

290 
WWUS54 KBMX 031955
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
155 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALC063-032015-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220203T2015Z/
Greene AL-
155 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY...
    
At 155 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Walden Quarters, or near Eutaw, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Walden Quarters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3269 8783 3274 8788 3276 8787 3277 8783
      3275 8781 3271 8783 3271 8780 3269 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 231DEG 37KT 3276 8782 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

05

513 
WWUS54 KBMX 031957
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
157 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALC063-032015-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220203T2015Z/
Greene AL-
157 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY...
    
At 157 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Wedgeworth, or 7 miles southeast of Eutaw, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Walden Quarters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3269 8783 3274 8788 3276 8787 3277 8783
      3275 8781 3271 8783 3271 8780 3269 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 231DEG 37KT 3278 8779 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

05

356 
WWUS54 KBMX 031958
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
158 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALC063-032008-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220203T2015Z/
Greene AL-
158 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for west central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3269 8783 3274 8788 3276 8787 3277 8783
      3275 8781 3271 8783 3271 8780 3269 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 231DEG 37KT 3279 8778 

$$

05

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1229 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

.UPDATE...
Midday Update and 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 03 2022/

Through Tomorrow.

The weather situation will become more active as we continue into
the early afternoon. Current surface obs indicate an elongated
1008mb surface low centered roughly over eastern Mississippi. The
surface low is tracking northeast along a cold front which extends
through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. Based on theta-e
analysis, a diffuse warm front is positioned roughly from Birmingham
southeast towards Auburn. South-southeasterly surface winds coupled
with south-southwesterly low-level winds are supplying warm, moist
air with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 60s across our
southwestern counties. This will provide a corridor of surface based
destabilization on the order of 800-1200 J/kg, per latest hi-res
guidance and SPC mesoanalysis, which could combine with sufficient
vertical wind shear to support an environment favorable for updraft
organization and strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging
winds. Curved forecast hodographs continue to show potential for
rotating updrafts with tornadoes possible. Still expect the most
favorable environment will focus across our southwestern counties
with instability diminishing with northward and eastern extent, but
a smaller risk may continue as far north as the Birmingham metro.
The ability for these storms to actually produce severe weather may
be limited by the lack of upper-level support and relatively
disorganized low-level support, but environmental profiles suggest
enough potential to continue the Slight risk for severe storms as it
currently stands. The risk will wane this evening as temperatures
cool and instability decreases.

Storms have begun consolidating along the cold front over
southeastern Mississippi and eastern Louisiana. This broken line
of storms will track northeast and enter southwest Alabama over
the next couple of hours as the cold front moves into west
Alabama. In addition to the severe risk, we will have a continued
risk for flash flooding with the potential for an additional one
to two and a half inches of rainfall along the I-20 corridor.
These areas have already received around an inch of rainfall since
yesterday, so runoff is likely to occur quickly under any heavier
thunderstorms.

Cooler air will quickly filter in behind the front. There is still
small potential for a brief changeover to a wintry mix or freezing
drizzle in our far northwest counties after midnight, but
accumulation is not expected and the duration appears even less on
some of the recent guidance. Therefore, the potential for even a
light glaze is beginning to appear less likely. However,
temperatures trends will need to be monitored overnight. Dry mid-
level air will end precip chances across the north and western
portions of the forecast area by tomorrow afternoon. The anafront
nature of this system means the surface boundary will be well
east of the area, but lingering showers can be expected across
the southeast as the low to mid level trough axis passes across
the Deep South. Highs will range from the lower 40s northwest to
lower 60s southeast.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0355 AM CST Thu Feb 03 2022/

Saturday through Wednesday.

The long-term forecast period will contain a somewhat progressive
upper-level pattern, and due to several progged shortwave features
embedded in a complex jet stream configuration throughout this time,
this will be a relatively low predictability pattern. For now I've
focused on temperatures, and overall moisture availability for
forecasting PoPs. At this time, the influence of the more zonal flow
aloft and persistent continental air mass precludes any mentionable
or meaningful rain chances. Overall, it appears we'll have a cool
and dry stretch of weather across the Deep South with diurnal
temperatures running below average.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Messy aviation conditions will continue through this TAF period as a
cold front passes through Central AL. Potential for SHRA or TSRA
will continue through the overnight hours ending first at the
northern TAF sites generally by 06Z. Precip may continue at TOI/MGM
through tomorrow morning. IFR ceilings can be expected to continue,
but may occasionally drop into LIFR. As the front passes by
overnight, sfc winds will shift from southerly to northwesterly with
gusts up to 20-22 kts.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A frontal system is approaching the area today. This will
eventually lead to a widespread soaking rainfall, along with a
thunderstorm potential, this afternoon through tonight. In the
mean time, rain shower activity will persist in some areas along
with south-southeasterly 20 ft winds at 5-10 mph. Cooler, drier
conditions are expected to take hold Saturday onward with fire
weather elements above critical thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     37  42  24  47  26 / 100  20   0  10  10
Anniston    41  45  26  49  29 / 100  30  10  10  10
Birmingham  37  42  26  47  28 / 100  20   0  10  10
Tuscaloosa  36  44  27  49  27 /  90  20   0  10  10
Calera      40  44  28  49  30 / 100  30  10  10  10
Auburn      51  55  30  50  33 /  90  70  30  10  10
Montgomery  46  48  31  52  31 / 100  60  20  10  10
Troy        51  56  32  51  32 /  90  70  40  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following counties:
Autauga...Bibb...Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...
Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Greene...
Hale...Jefferson...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...
Montgomery...Perry...Randolph...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...
Talladega...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa.

Flood Watch through late tonight for the following counties:
Blount...Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Pickens...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
419 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-041330-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
419 AM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Periods of heavy rainfall are possible through tonight along and
north of Interstate 85. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
are forecast, with locally higher amounts. This may result in
localized flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas.

Strong to severe thunderstorm are possible this afternoon across
portions of Central Alabama. Threats include damaging wind gusts,
hail, and tornadoes. The greatest risk area will be southwest
Central Alabama.

A transition to light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is possible
across northwest Central Alabama early Friday morning. This may
result in slippery roadways, especially on bridges and overpasses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Portions of the Tombigbee and the Black Warrior rivers are forecast
to go into minor flood stage on Friday. Minor flooding may persist
into early next week. Please refer to the latest river flood
warnings for the latest stage information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
needed tonight through Friday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1236 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

ALZ030-031915-
Sumter AL-
1236 PM CST Thu Feb 3 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Sumter
County through 115 PM CST...

At 1235 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alamucha, or 11 miles southwest of Cuba, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Livingston, York, Cuba, The University Of West Alabama, Bluffport,
Coatopa, Dug Hill, Kinterbish, Old Mallard Airport, Belmont,
Demopolis Lock And Dam, Lilita, McDowell, Bellamy, I 20 Welcome
Center At Cuba, Ward and Whitfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for southwestern
and west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8840 3269 8810 3269 8804 3264 8806
      3263 8808 3259 8806 3263 8793 3262 8791
      3262 8788 3259 8786 3261 8788 3260 8790
      3259 8790 3252 8784 3252 8792 3246 8796
      3242 8804 3238 8804 3231 8794 3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1835Z 236DEG 42KT 3232 8850

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

05