Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
627 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

.UPDATE...
Morning Update and 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0618 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/

Through Friday.

Current boundary is now south of the I-20 corridor with westerly
flow south of this. Showers and storms will continue to back-fill
south of this boundary as moisture remains trapped under the main
flow. The outflow from the early overnight storms will continue
to slide west while storms develop ahead and along the outflow.
The appearance will be the storms are moving west. but really the
storms are moving east but developing to west with the outflow.
The end result may be localized flooding throughout the I-85
corridor and points south during the morning and into the early
afternoon. A few of the hi-res models are handling this scenario
okay, but just on the slow side. Rearranged pops this morning to
account for this trend. Heavy rains and localized flash flooding
in the southeast will remain possible this morning. Will continue
to see high rain chances in the south until this boundary pushes
south or washes out over the next 2 days.

Look for a pretty good gradient rain wise from north to south as the
drier airmass continues to try to work south. Rain chances for
most of the area but will taper off the further north you go.
Through early afternoon Birmingham has around a 15 to 20%
generally during the peak heating of the day. This activity will
be isolated as the bulk of the moisture will be across the south
of the area. Meanwhile, Montgomery and Troy will be much higher
with a 70 to 80%. Most of the activity dissipates overnight but a
few showers and storms will remain possible through the night in
the southeast.

As we move into Friday the front will be further south and areas
along and north of I-20 will just have a slight chance while areas
in the south are once again around 60 to 70%. Highs will be a little
warmer on Friday in the north as there will be a touch more sun.
However, drier conditions should keep the heat index down to less
than 100.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/

Saturday through Wednesday.

Compared to 24 hours, ago models are in better agreement for
Saturday and Sunday. The combination of residual drier air to
the north of a stalled front and a weak 500 mb ridge axis, should
limit the development of diurnal convection across much of the
forecast area. The greatest coverage (30-40 percent) should be
found over our eastern and southeastern counties. This scenario
may repeat for Sunday.

Greater rain chances are expected Monday and Tuesday with the
arrival of an upper-level trough and deep- layer west to southwest
flow. The focus for convection may shift to the southern portions
of Alabama for Wednesday as the upper-level trough continues to
move southward.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Lots of rain across the south and just now working into the MGM
area. Look for persistent rain and storms at TOI and MGM today,
with generally isolated to scattered activity in the north. Went
ahead and removed TSRA across the north as chances are just too
low given the trapped moisture in the south at MGM and TOI. Tried
to time out the movement of the morning outflow at these sites
and then will focus on the afternoon with the next set. Low clouds
develop again tonight, with best chances across the south.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fog and low clouds are possible this morning, particularly across
Northwest Alabama. Showers and thunderstorms should be confined
to areas mainly south of Interstate 20 through Friday. 20 foot
winds will be light and variable. Somewhat drier air is expected
to move in across the north on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  92  68  92 /  10  10  10  10  20
Anniston    88  70  92  69  91 /  20  10  20  10  20
Birmingham  88  71  93  72  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  89  72  93  72  95 /  30  10  20  10  10
Calera      88  71  92  71  92 /  40  10  20  10  20
Auburn      86  72  88  71  88 /  70  30  50  20  30
Montgomery  90  73  93  72  92 /  80  30  50  10  30
Troy        87  71  88  70  90 /  80  40  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
504 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-151315-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
504 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Patchy dense fog may reduce visibilities to less than one mile at
times through 9 AM across portions of northwestern Alabama.

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into the evening hours across southeastern Alabama. The
threats will be damaging winds.

Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is also possible in the same
area through the day. Flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas
may result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon and tonight.