Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
355 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/

Through Friday.

Current boundary is now south of the I-20 corridor with westerly
flow south of this. Showers and storms will continue to back-fill
south of this boundary as moisture remains trapped under the main
flow. Heavy rains and localized flash flooding in the southeast will
remain possible this morning. Will continue to see high rain chances
in the south until this boundary pushes south or washes out over the
next 2 days.

Look for a pretty good gradient rain wise from north to south as the
drier airmass continues to try to work south. Rain chances for
most of the area but will taper off the further north you go.
Through early afternoon Birmingham has around a 30 to 40%
generally during the peak heating of the day. This activity will
be scattered so keep an eye out for activity. Meanwhile Montgomery
and Troy will be much higher with a 70 to 80%. Most of the activity
dissipates overnight but a few showers and storms will remain
possible through the night in the southeast.

As we move into Friday the front will be further south and areas
along and north of I-20 will just have a slight chance while areas
in the south are once again around 60 to 70%. Highs will be a little
warmer on Friday in the north as there will be a touch more sun.
However, drier conditions should keep the heat index down to less
than 100.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022/

Saturday through Wednesday.

Compared to 24 hours, ago models are in better agreement for
Saturday and Sunday. The combination of residual drier air to
the north of a stalled front and a weak 500 mb ridge axis, should
limit the development of diurnal convection across much of the
forecast area. The greatest coverage (30-40 percent) should be
found over our eastern and southeastern counties. This scenario
may repeat for Sunday.

Greater rain chances are expected Monday and Tuesday with the
arrival of an upper-level trough and deep- layer west to southwest
flow. The focus for convection may shift to the southern portions
of Alabama for Wednesday as the upper-level trough continues to
move southward.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

The main boundary has drifted to the south and is now near the
I-85 corridor. We do have some showers and storms developing near
AUO as of this hour and will continue to see a slight chance in
the south overnight. Did not include in TAFs at this time as the
chances remain low but will amend if needed.

Diurnal showers and storms develop again by late morning (after
15z) and continue through the afternoon/evening. Latest guidance
indicates the best chances across the south and may need to lower
the chances for the northern sites. Continued with afternoon prob
30 in the north for this set but could reduce that even more with
the 12z set of TAFs.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fog and low clouds are possible this morning, particularly across
Northwest Alabama. Showers and thunderstorms should be confined
to areas mainly south of Interstate 20 through Friday. 20 foot
winds will be light and variable. Somewhat drier air is expected
to move in across the north on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  92  68  92 /  20  10  10  10  20
Anniston    88  70  92  69  91 /  40  10  20  10  20
Birmingham  88  71  93  72  93 /  40  10  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  89  72  93  72  95 /  50  10  20  10  10
Calera      88  71  92  71  92 /  50  10  20  10  20
Auburn      86  72  88  71  88 /  70  30  50  20  30
Montgomery  90  73  93  72  92 /  80  30  50  10  30
Troy        87  71  88  70  90 /  80  40  60  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Fayette...Lamar...Marion...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
504 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

ALZ011>015-017>050-151315-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
504 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Patchy dense fog may reduce visibilities to less than one mile at
times through 9 AM across portions of northwestern Alabama.

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon into the evening hours across southeastern Alabama. The
threats will be damaging winds.

Additionally, locally heavy rainfall is also possible in the same
area through the day. Flooding of low lying or poor drainage areas
may result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
this afternoon and tonight.