Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
530 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.UPDATE...
Issued at 516 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Severe thunderstorm watch continues for much of central and
eastern ND. Outflow from a dying thunderstorm is currently moving
through the Mandan and Bismarck local area. Currently, strong to
severe storms were located from northern Burleigh and southeast
Mclean counties eastward into Wells and Foster counties. Expect
the main severe weather threat into the early evening to extend
from these storms south to the South Dakota border.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Severe weather expected through the evening, with cool and breezy
conditions expected for Saturday. A boundary with strong
instability and increasing shear has set up across central and
eastern portions of the CWA. This will be the focus for severe
weather through much of the evening. SPC has issued a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM CDT to account for this potential.
CAPE values are still high and shear is increasing as the front
gets closer. Cap should also continue to erode with and advancing
cold front. Hodographs are still pretty straight favoring large
hail as the main threat. Strong winds are also possible with any
storm as DCAPE is over 1000. The tornado threat is still there
given all the remnant boundaries. Hodographs are little more
favorable in the southeast, and will have to be monitored.
Meanwhile areas behind the front, mainly the west and north
central are likely out of the severe weather threat for today, but
may still see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lastly,
training storms and overall slow movement of storms will bring a
flash flooding threat through tonight.

Severe weather threat should diminish later this evening. Tonight
sees scattered showers, cooling temperatures into the 40s for some
western areas, and switch to breezy northwest flow. Saturday is
then your typical post front day. Breezy to windy northwest winds
will be found for most areas. There is some low to medium
confidence in advisory level winds across much of the area.
With ongoing severe weather and only up to medium confidence, will
hold off on any wind highlight for now. Otherwise perhaps a few
post frontal showers are possible in the north and east on
Saturday. Cool temperatures in the 60s and low 70s can also be
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

After another cool and breezy day on Sunday, the upcoming week looks
to see warm temperatures and a few chances for precipitation.

Broad upper level trough will exit the area through the day Sunday.
This will bring one more day of cooler than normal temperatures
generally in the 70s, and breezy sub advisory level winds mainly in
the central and east. A broad area of high pressure at the surface
then looks to bring warming temperatures to the area Monday. Look
for temperatures in the 80s as a result. There is a back door front
that tries to push through the area Monday into Monday night that
may bring a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the north
and east. Another surface high moves through the area on Tuesday,
maintaining warm temperatures and generally dry conditions. Tuesday
night through Wednesday, we switch to southwest flow aloft ahead of
the next cold front. This will bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms, with more warm temperatures. Perhaps an isolated
severe storm is possible during this mid week time period, although
the CSU Machine Learning is only showing low probabilities at this
time. Another cool and breezy post frontal pattern could then set up
to end next week. This looks to be a mainly dry pattern, with
temperatures cooling back into the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 516 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Thunderstorms are expected over south central into eastern ND
early this evening, including KJMS. Elsewhere showers and
possibly a few thunderstorms are expected at the remaining TAF
sites this evening. Northwest flow at all TAF sites to begin the
00Z TAF period, will spread into KJMS. Later tonight, showers and
MVFR ceilings may develop and linger into Saturday morning.&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...TWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-031-032-251915-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 /108 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today with gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, small hail, and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-251915-
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 /108 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 9 PM CDT this
evening across central and eastern North Dakota. Main threats will
be large hail up to three inches in diameter, wind gusts up to 75
mph, and a tornado or two. See more details at
www.weather.gov/bis.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212.

NDZ003-004-011-018-033-040-041-043-044-251915-
Renville-Bottineau-Ward-Dunn-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 /108 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Some storms
may be severe with quarter size hail and winds gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
507 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W HAMBERG             47.76N 99.56W
06/24/2022                   WELLS              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURE OF WATER ON WELLS COUNTY
            5 ROAD 2 MILES WEST OF HAMBERG.

&&

JAA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
509 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             4 SW SANGER             47.13N 101.05W
06/24/2022  E1.00 INCH       OLIVER             ND   PUBLIC

&&

JJA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
523 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

NDZ021-022-035-242300-
McLean ND-Burleigh ND-Sheridan ND-
523 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
SHERIDAN, SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN AND NORTHERN BURLEIGH COUNTIES THROUGH
600 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Turtle Lake to 7 miles northwest of Regan.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mcclusky, Wilton, Turtle Lake, Mercer, Hoffer Lake and New Johns
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
south central North Dakota.

&&

LAT...LON 4773 10057 4724 10018 4715 10081 4757 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 256DEG 22KT 4755 10089 4722 10065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EDWARDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
533 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             SYKESTON                47.47N 99.40W
06/24/2022  E1.50 INCH       WELLS              ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM SYKESTON.
            PICTURE RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA OF
            HAIL HALF DOLLAR TO PING PONG BALL SIZE IN
            SYKESTON.

&&

JAA