Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Severe weather expected through the evening, with cool and breezy
conditions expected for Saturday. A boundary with strong
instability and increasing shear has set up across central and
eastern portions of the CWA. This will be the focus for severe
weather through much of the evening. SPC has issued a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM CDT to account for this potential.
CAPE values are still high and shear is increasing as the front
gets closer. Cap should also continue to erode with and advancing
cold front. Hodographs are still pretty straight favoring large
hail as the main threat. Strong winds are also possible with any
storm as DCAPE is over 1000. The tornado threat is still there
given all the remnant boundaries. Hodographs are little more
favorable in the southeast, and will have to be monitored.
Meanwhile areas behind the front, mainly the west and north
central are likely out of the severe weather threat for today, but
may still see a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lastly,
training storms and overall slow movement of storms will bring a
flash flooding threat through tonight.

Severe weather threat should diminish later this evening. Tonight
sees scattered showers, cooling temperatures into the 40s for some
western areas, and switch to breezy northwest flow. Saturday is
then your typical post front day. Breezy to windy northwest winds
will be found for most areas. There is some low to medium
confidence in advisory level winds across much of the area.
With ongoing severe weather and only up to medium confidence, will
hold off on any wind highlight for now. Otherwise perhaps a few
post frontal showers are possible in the north and east on
Saturday. Cool temperatures in the 60s and low 70s can also be
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

After another cool and breezy day on Sunday, the upcoming week looks
to see warm temperatures and a few chances for precipitation.

Broad upper level trough will exit the area through the day Sunday.
This will bring one more day of cooler than normal temperatures
generally in the 70s, and breezy sub advisory level winds mainly in
the central and east. A broad area of high pressure at the surface
then looks to bring warming temperatures to the area Monday. Look
for temperatures in the 80s as a result. There is a back door front
that tries to push through the area Monday into Monday night that
may bring a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the north
and east. Another surface high moves through the area on Tuesday,
maintaining warm temperatures and generally dry conditions. Tuesday
night through Wednesday, we switch to southwest flow aloft ahead of
the next cold front. This will bring an increase in showers and
thunderstorms, with more warm temperatures. Perhaps an isolated
severe storm is possible during this mid week time period, although
the CSU Machine Learning is only showing low probabilities at this
time. Another cool and breezy post frontal pattern could then set up
to end next week. This looks to be a mainly dry pattern, with
temperatures cooling back into the 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Showers and thunderstorms will bring VFR to MVFR conditions
through this evening, with some MVFR conditions lingering into
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be continue to develop
across the area this afternoon, and continue through the evening.
A few storms may be strong to severe with strong winds and large
hail, mainly from KMOT to KBIS and eastward. Have placed a TEMPO
group in the impacted TAFs to account for this potential.
Thunderstorms diminish later this evening, although showers and
MVFR ceilings may linger through night in Saturday morning. A
breezy northwest wind may also develop by the end of Saturday
morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Anglin
LONG TERM...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

NDZ001-002-009-010-017-031-032-251915-
Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 /108 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible today with gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, small hail, and lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-251915-
Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-
Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Grant-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-
McIntosh-Dickey-
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 /108 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect until 9 PM CDT this
evening across central and eastern North Dakota. Main threats will
be large hail up to three inches in diameter, wind gusts up to 75
mph, and a tornado or two. See more details at
www.weather.gov/bis.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212.

NDZ003-004-011-018-033-040-041-043-044-251915-
Renville-Bottineau-Ward-Dunn-Stark-Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022 /108 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Some storms
may be severe with quarter size hail and winds gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any sized hail and damaging
wind gusts to the National Weather Service at 1-800-247-0212.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1028 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             5 ENE HIRSCHVILLE       47.10N 102.46W
06/20/2022  E1.00 INCH       DUNN               ND   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. HAIL ESTIMATED TO BE ONE
            INCH IN DIAMETER. HAIL CHIPPED PAINT OFF A
            WINDOWSILL AND TORE LEAVES OFF TREES. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

BG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N ZAP                 47.38N 101.93W
06/20/2022  E60 MPH          MERCER             ND   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 TO
            60 MPH ALONG WITH A LOT OF PEA SIZED HAIL
            RESULTED IN THE LEVELING OF A CORN FIELD.

&&

BG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
245 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             5 WSW MARSHALL          47.12N 102.43W
06/22/2022  E0.70 INCH       DUNN               ND   PUBLIC

&&

JJA