Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
256 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Satellite imagery shows thunderstorms over north central North
Dakota are beginning to fizzle out while storms begin to bubble
across the southwest. An upper level disturbance over eastern
Montana extending into western South Dakota will continue move
northeastward into North Dakota. Warmer temperatures in the lower
90s with dewpoints in the lower 60s will provide plenty of energy
for afternoon storms. This will lead to CAPE values around
1500-2000 j/kg with 0-6km bulk shear up to 30 kts over central
North Dakota. Therefore, an isolated strong to severe storm
should not be ruled out. Convection continues to bubble up in the
southwest this afternoon while the CAMs highlight an area of
precip along the HWY 83 corridor this evening. Thunderstorms along
a stationary front slowly moving southward, located from Tioga to
Minot, could see the greatest chance for severe weather this
afternoon. Inverted V soundings and high D-CAPE around 1000 j/kg
could support outflow winds up to 60 mph. Quarter size hail is
possible this afternoon and evening from any strong to severe
storms over central North Dakota. Thunderstorms could also produce
brief heavy rain with PWATs well over 1 inch.

Rain chances will continue overnight across much of the region.
Thunderstorms are possible tonight, however the strong to severe
threat should subside. A cold front is expected to move through the
area tonight bringing low stratus deck in from Canada that
will linger through tomorrow afternoon. Patchy fog is set to
develop over portions of north central and northwestern North
Dakota early this morning. Low temperatures are forecast to cool
off into the upper 50s to lower 60s. High temperatures Wednesday
are forecast to stay in 70s across the state with some lingering
rain showers across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Surface high pressure over the Dakotas is going to progress
eastward Thursday as a shortwave over Montana. The aforementioned
shortwave is going to increase precipitation chances Friday
afternoon across the west. Temperatures are forecast to fairly
cool in the upper 70s to 80s through work week with a warming
trend returning this weekend. A slow moving cutoff low over the
Pacific Northwest is forecast to reach the Northern Plains this
weekend bringing increased chances for severe weather over the
weekend. The CSU MLP is highlighting a 15% chance for severe
weather Friday and Saturday. We will see how models develop the
aforementioned system this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across much
of the state. As storms develop AMDs will be made to match
current conditions, as confidence on timing and location of storms
remains low. VFR conditions will continue this through this
evening until a low cloud deck moves in from the north. This will
bring widespread IFR to LIFR conditions to the region tomorrow
morning. However, KBIS and KJMS may be on the edge of the low
cloud deck, therefore they were left VFR for now.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Johnson
LONG TERM...Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
218 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-034>036-241930-
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
218 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 /118 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and south central North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible today through
this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with
quarter hail size and winds gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ001-009-017-018-025-031>033-037-040>048-050-051-241930-
Divide-Williams-McKenzie-Dunn-Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
218 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2022 /118 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and
southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible today through this evening.
Severe weather is not likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
142 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022

NDZ033-040-041-232015-
Hettinger ND-Stark ND-Slope ND-
142 PM MDT Tue Aug 23 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
HETTINGER, NORTHEASTERN SLOPE AND SOUTHWESTERN STARK COUNTIES THROUGH
215 PM MDT...

At 142 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles northwest of
New England, or 17 miles southwest of Dickinson, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  New England around 200 PM MDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4656 10306 4674 10307 4679 10267 4652 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 267DEG 13KT 4665 10296

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SAVADEL