Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
255 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Key Messages:

 - Severe weather expected this afternoon and evening

 - Frost/Freeze Headlines Maybe Needed Sunday Night

Late This Afternoon and Evening...

Continuing to monitor the northward progression of a warm front
which extends from Albert Lea, MN to Platteville, WI. Temperatures
south of this warm front range from the mid-80s to lower 90s. Dew
points have dropped into the 50s in the wake of this mornings
convection. Further to the southwest, the dew points range from
the mid-60s to lower 70s. There is still some questions how much
moisture recovery there will be in the warm sector. The latest
HRRR has a good handle on the current dew points and it shows that
the dew points will recover into the lower 60s. Until that
moisture gets back into the area, there may be a lull in
convection in this area. Soundings show an inverted V in this
area, so there will be a threat of damaging winds and large hail
once the convection returns to this area between 5 PM and 7 PM.

Meanwhile, along the warm front, VWP is showing backing winds at
KLSE and this lengthening the 0-3 km hodograph. The RAP and HRRR
indicate helicities increasing into the 300 to 400. The 0-1 km
computed CAPES will likely climb into the 800 to 1200 J/kg range.
The highest values look to be from the Iowa/Minnesota boarder
north into southeast Minnesota and maybe the counties bordering
the Mississippi in Wisconsin. This tornado threat looks to be from
4 PM to 7 PM.

As the cold front approaches and the moves into the narrow ribbon
of return moisture, there will a line of storms developing along
the cold front. These storms will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds. There is still some uncertainty on how
far south the storms will develop into the warm sector.

Sunday through Thursday...

Precipitation chances continue into Sunday morning as an upper level
trough moves over the area. As the trough lifts out of the area,
precipitation could linger over our northern counties into early
Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will remain in the upper 50s/low
60s during the day, and with clouds moving out overnight, low
temperatures could drop down to the low/mid 30s for some.
Frost/freeze headlines may be needed Monday morning.

Although the end of the weekend into Monday appears to be dry,
increasing chances for precipitation returns through the week. While
ensemble solutions show increasing agreement on upper level
troughing moving across the area midweek, there are differences in
the progression of the trough. With this disagreement, differences
in the timing and coverage of precipitation across the area remains.
Temperatures will return to the low/mid 60s for the start of the
week. However, EPS solutions suggest an upward trend in
temperatures into the weekend, with ensemble means above model
climatology.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move through
the TAF sites through 19.20z. Additional showers and storms will
develop after 19.22z and continue through 20.05z. A few of these
storms could become severe early this afternoon and then a more
widespread threat from 19.21z through 20.05z. The initial threat
will be large hail and then there will be a threat for large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes late this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Boyne/EMS
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
449 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-201200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
449 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible today into tonight. Large
hail is the primary threat with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and heavy rainfall also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms could develop over northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today. Hail reports are
always appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
140 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 PM     HAIL             2 SW ROCHESTER          43.99N 92.50W
05/19/2022  U1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

0137 PM     HAIL             3 S ROCHESTER           43.97N 92.48W
05/19/2022  U1.25 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

0136 PM     HAIL             1 NW ROCHESTER          44.03N 92.49W
05/19/2022  U0.75 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
213 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             4 S ROCHESTER           43.95N 92.47W
05/19/2022  U1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
214 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             1 SW ROCHESTER          44.01N 92.50W
05/19/2022  E1.00 INCH       OLMSTED            MN   PUBLIC

&&