Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS La Crosse, WI

789 
WWUS53 KARX 191754
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1254 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

IAC089-191800-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-220519T1845Z/
Howard IA-
1254 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4375 9220 4356 9213 4347 9270 4348 9273
      4357 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 252DEG 39KT 4356 9259 

$$

IAC131-MNC045-099-191845-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-220519T1845Z/
Mitchell IA-Mower MN-Fillmore MN-
1254 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL...SOUTHEASTERN MOWER AND SOUTHWESTERN
FILLMORE COUNTIES...

At 1250 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Le Roy, or 20
miles east of Austin, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported ping pong ball sized hail 
         south of Adams at 1245 PM.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe storm will be near...
  Le Roy around 1255 PM CDT.
  Spring Valley around 105 PM CDT.
  Wykoff around 115 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Lake
Louise State Park, Forestville State Park, Etna, Taopi, Cherry Grove,
County Roads 4 And 3 and Ostrander.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4375 9220 4356 9213 4347 9270 4348 9273
      4357 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 252DEG 39KT 4356 9259 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Dahl

047 
WWUS53 KARX 191805
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
105 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

IAC131-MNC045-099-191815-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-220519T1845Z/
Mitchell IA-Mower MN-Fillmore MN-
105 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL...
SOUTHEASTERN MOWER AND SOUTHWESTERN FILLMORE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4375 9220 4356 9213 4347 9270 4348 9273
      4357 9281
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 257DEG 40KT 4360 9236 

$$

Dahl

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1240 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

Key Messages:

 - Severe storm chances this afternoon thru tonight

 - Cooler this weekend

Storms possible today and tonight:

Numerous severe storms are possible beginning this afternoon. Water
vapor imagery shows a trough located along the southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan border around 06Z this morning. This wave is
slated to slide southeast into North Dakota throughout the day
before riding the divergence in the left jet exit region to the
northeast into Ontario late tonight. Warm air advection in the
southwesterly flow will help temps rise into the mid 70s to low 80s
by the afternoon despite partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Dew points along and behind a warm front that will move northward
into the area have a 70-90% chance of reaching 60 degrees in
northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southwest into west-central
Wisconsin by 21Z (19.03 SREF). A stout cap at the surface will
inhibit surface-based storms and widespread convection until the
afternoon when increased daytime heating helps erode some of the
inhibition. When convection is realized, strong to severe storms
will likely develop rapidly just behind the warm front where
differential moisture advection, CAPE, and mechanical lifting are
all co-located. The main threat with these storms is large hail
thanks to very steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE values around
2,000 J/kg (19.00 HREF mean). Tornadoes and damaging winds are
also possible with a 90+% chance of 0-6 KM bulk sheer exceeding 50
kts, especially if storms become surface based. Heavy rainfall is
expected if storms develop with some locations receiving over an
inch of rain, especially if training storms form along the warm
front.

The chance for strong to severe storms will continue into the
evening until the cold front traverses the forecast area tonight.
A linear band of storms could form along the cold front posing a
damaging wind threat.

One caveat to storm development that we will have to keep a close
eye on throughout the day is how much mixing is realized. The HRRR
is currently very aggressive with its mixing but has temperatures
climbing into the mid 80s in Rochester, which seems a little too
high. The RAP, on the other hand, does not exhibit much mixing but
afternoon highs only climb into the low 70s, likely too cold. A good
happy medium seems to be the 3km NAM which has afternoon temps in
the upper 70s and a mixed layer to around 800 mb. The NAM 3k CIN
values do not drop below 100 J/kg until 5 PM.

Weekend outlook:

Below average temperatures will return tomorrow behind the cold
front. Upper level troughing through the weekend will extend the
cooler temperatures, with highs in the 50's Saturday and Sunday for
most. A short wave brings precipitation chances to the area
Saturday, especially in northeast Iowa and Southwest Wisconsin.
Freeze headlines look increasingly likely Sunday night when clear
nighttime skies will help temperatures cool into the low 30s in
central Wisconsin and upper 30s elsewhere.

Looking ahead:

Mid level flow becomes more zonal at the start of next week helping
temperatures return to the 60s. There are periodic precipitation
chances throughout the week with pulses of wave energy passing
through the area. Model consensus is increasing in a deep upper
level trough sliding through around midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move through
the TAF sites through 19.20z. Additional showers and storms will
develop after 19.22z and continue through 20.05z. A few of these
storms could become severe early this afternoon and then a more
widespread threat from 19.21z through 20.05z. The initial threat
will be large hail and then there will be a threat for large hail,
damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes late this afternoon and
evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...KAA
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
449 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-201200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
449 AM CDT Thu May 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible today into tonight. Large
hail is the primary threat with damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and heavy rainfall also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms could develop over northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today. Hail reports are
always appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             LYLE                    43.51N 92.94W
05/19/2022  E1.25 INCH       MOWER              MN   POST OFFICE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1232 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

MNZ079-086>088-094>096-191900-
Wabasha MN-Olmsted MN-Dodge MN-Fillmore MN-Winona MN-Mower MN-
Houston MN-
1232 PM CDT Thu May 19 2022

...Strong thunderstorms affecting southeastern Minnesota into the
early afternoon...

At 1228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of storms over
southeast Minnesota, drifting east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Pea to Half inch hail. However, isolated storms could
         produce larger damaging hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Austin, Caledonia, Dodge Center, Preston, Kasson,
Stewartville, St. Charles, Plainview, Spring Valley, Eyota,
Rushford, and Spring Grove.

This includes much of Interstate 90 in southeast Minnesota.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4420 9305 4419 9186 4350 9126 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 239DEG 49KT 4388 9237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Baumgardt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1241 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             1 NE MAPLEVIEW          43.70N 92.96W
05/19/2022  M0.25 INCH       MOWER              MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&