Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS La Crosse, WI

382 
WGUS73 KARX 130504
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

IAC131-130630-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220413T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell IA-
1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR MITCHELL COUNTY...

At 1204 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing have 
moved out of the warned area. Between 3 and 4 inches of rain have 
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.3 inches are possible in 
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Osage, St. Ansgar, Lyle, Stacyville, Mitchell, McIntire, Carpenter, 
Little Cedar, Toeterville, Osage Spring Park, Meyer, Pioneer State 
Park, Mona, Otranto Park, and Rock Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9302 4350 9281 4350 9256 4342 9256
      4321 9286 4321 9294 4321 9296 4321 9301
      4321 9302 4338 9302 4339 9302 4349 9302

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JAR

140 
WGUS73 KARX 130624
FFSARX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
124 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

IAC131-130634-
/O.EXP.KARX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220413T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell IA-
124 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 130 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR MITCHELL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4350 9302 4350 9281 4350 9256 4342 9256
      4321 9286 4321 9294 4321 9296 4321 9301
      4321 9302 4338 9302 4339 9302 4349 9302

$$

Skow

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
611 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Key Messages:

 - Gusty winds/scattered storms late this afternoon with hail
   potential

 - Severe weather risk this evening/tonight, highest west of the
   MS River

 - Strong, gusty winds likely on Thursday

Tonight: Severe Storm Risk

The main focus late this afternoon and tonight remains on severe
storm potential. Preceding the surface low, gusty S/SE winds have
developed in conjunction with strengthening low-level flow. Gusts
have locally reached 45 to 50 mph in some areas so did issue a short
wind advisory for areas west of the MS River. Additionally, showers
and storms will continue to translate northeast with a slug of
strong mid-level warm advection on the edge of the elevated
instability axis through late afternoon. With the steepening mid-
level lapse rates, any storms may produce some hail, with a few
storms likely to produce hail to 1"+.

Heading into this evening, the filling surface low will lift from
eastern NE into southern MN with its associated warm front lifting
north into the area. Despite the extensive low clouds north of
the boundary, an airmass change will occur as the boundary lifts
north with increasing dew points/temps. While a plume of elevated
instability will lift north through the afternoon/evening as lapse
rates steepen aloft, a pool of MLCAPE will spread north and east
more gradually and weaken ahead of the low/cold front this
evening/tonight.

After the initial warm advection storms, the general expectation is
for storms to develop late this afternoon closer to the triple point
in western IA/eastern NE/southwest MN spreading east through evening
and likely organizing into a linear band of storms by the time they
approach. HREF UH paintballs show clustering across western
IA/southern MN during the evening, with storms approaching the local
area by late evening (10-11 pm), weakening as they track east
into WI overnight. Scattered elevated storms also could form by
early to mid evening near the warm front in northern IA/southern
MN/northern WI as the low-level jet strengthens posing primarily a
hail threat given the strong low-level stability/capping in the
warm sector.

There remains some uncertainty in the evolution/strength of the
storms late this evening. RAP soundings show fairly stable/capped
low-levels despite the moistening/increasing MLCAPE through the
evening. The window for surface-based storms looks quite narrow,
focused right ahead of the approaching front. This is when the risk
for damaging winds or an isolated tornado would be maximized with
any bowing segments/mesovortices, especially across far
southwestern counties where HREF/RAP fields show SBCAPE/MLCAPE
maximized over 1000 J/kg. Some severe weather risk could persist
into western WI, although buoyancy will be on the decline
overnight as storms move into this area. Despite the impressive
low-level shear, the low-level thermodynamic profiles and late
evening/overnight timing decreases confidence in the overall
threat, especially with eastward extent, but it will be an evening
to keep on eye on trends as storms begin to develop, given the
rapid airmass change as warm, moist air advects north.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night

Upper level closed low over the Northern Plains States lifts slowly
northeast into northern Minnesota Wednesday into Thursday. Several
pieces of energy rotate around the closed upper level low into the
Upper Mississippi River valley. Main surface front passes across the
forecast area early Wednesday morning. This will push the deeper
moisture transport/east of the forecast area during the day
Wednesday. However...with pieces of energy rotating around the upper
closed low...showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will linger
mainly along and east of the Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon.
Cooler temperatures will advect in behind the surface front and
allow for temperatures to remain nearly steady or fall into the
middle 40s to lower 50s by middle of Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday

Focus turns to the windy conditions across the forecast area
Thursday. Combination of pressure gradient tightening and winds
aloft mixing down to the surface will produce windy conditions
across the forecast area. Both of the NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings show
45 to 50 knots at the top of the mixed layer. Expect wind gusts to
be 40 to 50 miles per hour. Along with the windy
conditions...rain/snow showers will develop Thursday afternoon and
mainly over the northern half of the forecast area.

Friday through Tuesday

Main forecast concerns Friday through Tuesday are precipitation
chances Sunday into Monday. Upper level closed low/trough slowly
pulls east of the Upper Mississippi River valley and another
shortwave trough will track into the Northern Plains States this
weekend. The 12.12z deterministic GFS/ECMWF show some differences on
the strength with the shortwave trough. This will have impacts on
timing of precipitation chances. Depending on temperatures Sunday
into Monday...light snow will continue to be possible across much of
the forecast area. The deterministic models continue to show cooler
airmass filtering in with the shortwave trough and into early next
week. The 12.12z GFS/ECMWF indicate 925mb temperatures around 0
degrees celsius to minus 4 degrees celsius through the forecast
period. Temperatures will remain well below normal...with highs
mainly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

The next round of convection is quickly developing over northern
Iowa and is expected to expand northeast into the area this
evening. Current expectations are that thunderstorms will be
possible at both sites from mid-evening through about midnight or
so with MVFR/IFR conditions. Behind the storms, lingering
showers/rain for awhile overnight with what should be VFR ceilings
before the ceilings go back down to MVFR late tonight as the
showers/rain come to an end. The winds will be gusty out of the
southeast this evening coming around to the south/southwest
overnight before going west once the front goes through early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...DTJ/JM
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
326 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-131230-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
326 AM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe storms are possible this evening and early
tonight, mainly across northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.
Hail and damaging winds would be the main threats along with a
narrow window of opportunity for a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong west to southwest winds develop on Thursday with gusts of
40 to 50 mph possible. Scattered snow showers are possible north
of Interstate 90 that, when combined with the strong winds, may
lead to brief visibility reductions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Severe weather reports may be needed this evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

KDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
501 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW NECEDAH           44.03N 90.08W
04/12/2022  M52 MPH          JUNEAU             WI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION NEHW3 NECEDAH.

&&

DB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
502 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             4 WNW MONROE CENTER     44.15N 90.02W
04/12/2022  M1.00 INCH       JUNEAU             WI   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
901 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     NORA SPRINGS            43.14N 93.01W
04/12/2022  M72 MPH          FLOYD              IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1007 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             LE ROY                  43.51N 92.51W
04/12/2022  M0.75 INCH       MOWER              MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1010 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SAINT ANSGAR            43.38N 92.92W
04/12/2022  M2.64 INCH       MITCHELL           IA   PUBLIC

&&

JAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1014 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     HAIL             1 E OSTRANDER           43.61N 92.41W
04/12/2022  M1.00 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

1012 PM     HAIL             SPRING VALLEY           43.69N 92.39W
04/12/2022  E0.25 INCH       FILLMORE           MN   911 CALL CENTER

&&

SHEA