Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

426 
WWUS43 KAPX 042039
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098-050445-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, and St. James
339 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095>097-050445-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
339 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-021>023-027-028-033-099-050445-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Kalkaska, Grayling, Lake City, 
and Charlevoix
339 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

245 
WWUS43 KAPX 050319
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1019 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098-051200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, and St. James
1019 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 
  10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095>097-051200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
1019 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-021>023-027-028-033-099-051200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Kalkaska, Grayling, Lake City, 
and Charlevoix
1019 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

841 
WWUS43 KAPX 050845
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
345 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098-052200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, and St. James
345 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Blowing and drifting snow. Total
  snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Highest amounts will be in
  central and western Leelanau, Benzie, and Manistee Counties.

* WHERE...Portions of Northwest Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and especially evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ024-029-052200-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T1200Z/
Alpena-Oscoda-
Including the cities of Alpena and Mio
345 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Some blowing and drifting snow. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Alpena and Oscoda Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095>097-052200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
345 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Some blowing and drifting snow. Total 
  snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-021>023-027-028-033-099-052200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.220105T0900Z-220106T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Kalkaska-
Crawford-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Kalkaska, Grayling, Lake City, 
and Charlevoix
345 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Some blowing and drifting snow. Total 
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

267 
WWUS43 KAPX 051630
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1130 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098-060030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, and St. James
1130 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 7 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095>097-060030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
1130 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-021>024-027>029-033-099-060030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, 
Lake City, and Charlevoix
1130 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

300 
WWUS43 KAPX 052058
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
358 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098-060500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, and St. James
358 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095>097-060500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
358 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-021>024-027>029-033-099-060500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, 
Lake City, and Charlevoix
358 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

037 
WWUS43 KAPX 060332
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1032 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098-061200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, Cadillac, and St. James
1032 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two
  inches...with locally higher amounts expected under more 
  organized lake enhanced snow showers.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095>097-060600-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T0600Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
1032 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-021>024-027>029-033-099-061200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, 
Lake City, and Charlevoix
1032 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

612 
WWUS43 KAPX 060830
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

MIZ098-060930-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
330 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...


$$

MIZ016-017-021>023-027>029-033-099-060930-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Mancelona, Gaylord, 
Atlanta, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Lake City, and Charlevoix
330 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-061200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, and Cadillac
330 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Localized additional snow accumulations
  of around and inch early this morning.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Manistee and Wexford 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ018-024-061200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Presque Isle-Alpena-
Including the cities of Rogers City and Alpena
330 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Localized additional snow accumulations
  of around and inch early this morning.

* WHERE...Alpena and Presque Isle Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

JZ

135 
WWUS43 KAPX 061152
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
652 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

MIZ020-025-026-031-032-061300-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-Wexford-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
Manistee, and Cadillac
652 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Light lake effect snow will produce localized accumulations of up
to 3 inches today.


$$

MIZ018-024-061300-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T1200Z/
Presque Isle-Alpena-
Including the cities of Rogers City and Alpena
652 AM EST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

Light lake effect snow will produce localized accumulations of up
to 3 inches today.


$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
637 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...Snow moves in late tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Trending moderate toward the very
end of the forecast period, as synoptic snow arrives.

Low pressure is moving east, north of Lk Huron. A boundary trails
off to western upper MI, where it transitions to a warm front
ahead of our next system, deepening in the northern plains. The
low will deepen further as it moves east, with a 992mb low over
central upper MI by dawn Wed. The progressive 500mb parent
shortwave will be closing off just w of the surface low overnight.
Snow will break out in advance of this system late tonight.

Nothing going on out there presently. An MVFR stratocu deck covers
most areas north of M-55, though with some thin spots in eastern
upper MI. Temps are mostly in the 20s under the clouds, though
with some teens outside of it (and 8f at ISQ). Westerly low-level
flow is generating some very low-end lake effect at the east end
of Superior; Sault Canada has reported -SN with 20SM vsby, which
is very very light indeed. A few snow showers/flurries remain
possible today north of M-28, and especially near Whitefish Pt,
with marginal instability but a very long w fetch. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy conditions will prevail M-72 and north, with partly
sunny becoming mostly cloudy in the far south.

Strengthening theta-e advection, initially strongest below 700mb,
will warm and moisten the column tonight. Bufr soundings show a
somewhat nonstandard bottom-up saturation taking place, but this
system doesn't have much of a warm conveyor belt. The upstream
airmass in the OH and mid-MS Valleys is dry; we are not tapping
Gulf moisture, or anything close to it. That said, dynamics really
start to ramp up overnight, and expect -SN to break out overnight
from w to e. There are some smaller chances for light precip
before that in the moistening low-level airmass. There is a usable
DGZ around 700mb, but the strongest lift is well below that (at
and below 850mb). And our BL will be on the warm side, especially
near Lake MI. So snow-liquid ratios will be somewhat limited
overnight, in the lower teens.

By 7am, expect about 2" of snow from MBL to the Dunes, and in far
western Mack Co. Amounts diminish to east; around 1" for the Sault
and St Iggy, and for TVC-CAD. Less that that to the east.

Mild temps today, near 30f to the mid 30s. Lows tonight in the
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating and blowing snow through
the period...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

This past evening's surface analysis shows a SW-NE oriented boundary
bifurcating surface high pressure across the center of the
continent...generally extending from low pressure to our north in
southern Ontario...back into the Dakotas. This boundary then extends
to the northwest through central Montana and into southern British
Columbia...reflecting the baroclinic zone across the region...and
separating the cold air across Canada from the less cold air across
the northern US. Plentiful moisture is already spreading across the
Dakotas north of the front...in advance of the approaching shortwave
trough over the West Coast. 100+kt NW-SE oriented jet max aloft sits
over Michigan...with a stronger (140+kt) jet max rounding the base
of aforementioned troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest.

Going into Wednesday morning...will look for parent slightly
anomalous shortwave associated with our surface system to be located
just to our northwest, centered over northern Wisconsin/western
UP...potentially closed off, or nearly so, at 500mb....with a
neutral or perhaps slightly negative tilt as it sits in the left
exit region of a 100+kt upper level jet max rounding its base.
This shortwave feature appears to open back up through the day
Wednesday...as it progresses on its way through the flow rather
quickly. Quick on its heels will be a second shortwave sharpening up
across the central Plains/Upper Midwest ahead of a stronger (140+kt)
jet max diving in from the west/northwest...also becoming slightly
anomalous (-2 standard deviations)...which looks to swing through
the region through the day Thursday. There are still some
differences in the exact evolution of this second feature for
Thursday...so will keep an eye on it...but the overall idea seems to
be similar, on that shortwave energy swinging through Thursday into
the Thursday night...with the bulk of the energy further south than
for Wednesday, suggesting we should be colder behind this second
system.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Winds Wednesday...accumulating snow
Wednesday through Thursday...

With the surface low track still looking like it will be right
through the Straits...strongest winds should be largely displaced to
our south. That being said...will have to watch for some stronger
winds at times along the M-55 corridor, where the pressure gradient
will be strongest south of the system...and where the isallobaric
gradient is generally strongest (which could add extra oomph to
gusts with the fropa)...both early on, as the initial cold front
passes through...and later in the day/toward evening, as the
secondary cold front swings down from the northwest. There are some
signals for stronger winds in the western portions of Chip and Mack
in the eastern UP Wednesday afternoon behind the surface low...with
additional isallobaric concerns at times...though again, given the
surface low track...the strongest winds appear to stay just out over
Lake Superior. Will have to keep an eye on this...as a slight shift
in the track could bring much stronger winds across either our
southern CWA...or our northern areas.

Regarding moisture Wednesday and Wednesday night...we should be
pretty well saturated by Monday morning across most, if not all, of
the CWA...even right up through 400mb, per guidance derived
soundings. Model pwats between 0.30 and 0.40 inches across the area
Wednesday morning would be on the high end of climatology for this
time of year...suggesting that moisture will be deep and abundant.
This should (fortunately) be on the decrease through the day...as
the system moves on out...though both mid-level and boundary layer
moisture appear to remain decent across the area right on into
Wednesday night...with wraparound moisture present as the secondary
cold front drops through.

Best upper-level forcing appears to be early in the day
Wednesday...as we'll be nearest to the left exit region of that
120+kt jet max aloft...and will still be ahead of the shortwave
aloft. This will depart quickly to the east as the system itself
departs...leaving us with forcing largely related to the fronts
themselves. Guidance still points to some better low-level
convergence along our west coast Wednesday morning as the cold
front swings through...potentially with a touch of southwest-flow
lake enhancement in some areas. Additional foci for low-level
convergence appear to be associated with the surface front itself,
as well as the more or less zonally-oriented secondary/reinforcing
cold front that drops in from the north Wednesday afternoon behind
the departing low. Will have to watch this for lake enhancement
potential as well along the Lake Michigan coast yet again, as winds
shift to more northwest behind this front. Guidance is still trying
to nail down the exact position of this secondary front Wednesday
afternoon...which could be anywhere from the eastern UP to the Tip
of the Mitt...so will have to watch this as well.
Interestingly...some guidance would like to have some mid-level
frontogenesis during the early-mid afternoon Wednesday across
Northern Lower...ahead of the cold front sweeping through. The
interesting part about this is that the warm side of this band would
be to the north or northeast of the fgen max (a bit contrary to what
you'd normally expect), given the tongue of cold air sweeping around
the southwest side of the surface low. With the potential trowal in
play with this system, too...will have to monitor the northwest
quadrant of the system for additional enhancement of snowfall totals
going into the latter part of Wednesday.

Thermal profile with regard to overlake instability will be
interesting...depending on exactly where that axis of warmer air
sets up. As mentioned above related to the frontogenesis...with that
cold air advecting in south of the surface low, will initially look
for 925mb temps around -8 or -10C behind that first cold front
Wednesday morning, particularly across our southwest...which will
easily be sufficient for overlake instability, given lake surface
temps around 4-5C. Will actually see some warmer temps aloft advect
southward for a time Wednesday afternoon along the Lake Michigan
coast...closer to -6C (ish) in the afternoon...ahead of the
secondary front...with temps returning to those -10C or colder
numbers behind it. A plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates appears
to move through Wednesday morning as well...ahead of the cold
front...which could keep things more unstable aloft for a time. Will
look for low-level conditional instability along the lakeshore to be
realized, given boundary layer moisture in place, suggesting the
lake will indeed remain in play going into Wednesday night. Model
derived sounding suggest this as well...particularly as we go into
Wednesday night...still with more of a signal for lake enhancement
more so than pure lake effect.

Bottom line for Wednesday into Wednesday night (but particularly
Wednesday)...it will snow, with the highest totals likely in the
pinky finger of Michigan (that is, Leelanau, Benzie,
Manistee)...with some uncertainty as to how far inland those highest
totals will go. Attm...looks like an easy 3-6+" for that area
just during the daylight hours Wednesday, and will not be surprised
if some localized areas exceed that, given lake enhancement. (24
hour totals will obviously be higher.) Additionally...with the
stronger winds in this region...though not as strong as points
further south...will have some blowing/drifting/visibility concerns
to deal with. Still have some concerns for higher amounts as well
across the Tip of the Mitt/eastern Upper as well...though perhaps
not adding up quite as quickly as the Pinky finger, given the
general lack of lake enhancement.

As for Thursday...will look for cyclonic flow/troughing to hang out
across the area as the next upstream niblet sharpens up with an
incoming jet. Here in the Great Lakes...will look for continued
moisture over our region...slowly diminishing through the night
Thursday night as ridging approaches from the west. Bulk of the
upper level forcing will remain to our south this time...with
mesoscale/lake factors mainly in play. Even so...guidance derived
soundings still suggest this will not be pure lake effect. Sharp,
positively tilted troughing actually keeps some winds more
northeasterly across NE Lower...suggesting we may have some
northeast flow lake effect in play for a change...though low-level
convergence with this is not terribly strong. Will still have some
concerns for north-ish flow lake effect/enhancement along the Lake
Michigan coast as well, near the base of the aforementioned trough
going into Thursday night. (This could affect NE Lower as well.) So
will look for perhaps a slightly more widespread snow Thursday than
pure lake effect as that boundary/trough slides through, with
localized higher totals under the heavier bands (particularly in the
same areas impacted most by Wednesday's system...those pinky finger
counties of northwest Lower). Additionally...with regard to
Thursday...it will be much colder than Wednesday...with temperatures
likely not recovering much from overnight lows Wednesday night
(single digits across Eastern Upper and teens across most of
Northern Lower)...as cold advection draws some -15C air at 850mb
overhead for Thursday into Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Lingering accumulating lake effect
snow Friday...more cold air early next week?

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Second shortwave axis should be departing up the East Coast by
Friday morning...with a brief shot at ridging for Friday into
Friday night. This should help shut off any remaining lake
effect...though the lake aggregate trough should be
present...keeping some semblance of cyclonic flow in place over the
Great Lakes into the end of the workweek/start of the weekend.
Another shortwave shaping up across the northwestern US late Friday
night/early Saturday will bring the next system in for the weekend.
Attm...this appears to briefly settle a trough in across the Great
Lakes/eastern US...bringing some of the coldest air yet right along
with it, though guidance has been bouncing back and forth a little
the last few days on just how cold we will/won't go for the latter
half of the weekend/early next week. After all, Monday morning is
156hrs out from the current (00z/04) run...so some uncertainty is to
be expected...and there is still plenty of time to get details
ironed out. Even so...guidance seems to like this idea of a
brief shot of cold air for early next week...so will have to monitor
that going forward as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 636 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

MVFR cigs this morning. -SN and IFR vsbys move in late tonight.

An MVFR stratocu deck lingers over much of northern lower MI,
with MBL along the south edge of this edge. This will eventually
erode as warmer southerly flow increases today. VFR conditions
will be in place this afternoon and evening. Strengthening low
pressure will approach the northern lakes late tonight, and -SN
will spread into the region as the low gets closer. Expect IFR
vsbys by 12Z at all sites but APN.

S to sw winds will be somewhat gusty this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

Complicated marine forecast over the next few days. Southerly
winds ramp up somewhat today, especially on Lake MI, ahead of
strengthening low pressure that moves into the northern lakes late
tonight. Gusty winds return across the entire area on Wednesday/
Wed evening, as colder air swings back in behind the departing
low. Most confident that gales will be reached Wed near Oscoda and
Tawas, otherwise it will be close to gales at times. Will reassess
marine headlines in a bit.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Wednesday
     night for MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
     GALE WARNING from 7 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
415 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-051200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
415 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow will move into northern Michigan late tonight. Accumulations
will be highest near Lake Michigan in both eastern upper and
northwest lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Accumulating snow continues Wednesday and Wednesday evening,
before diminishing to lake effect snow showers. Gusty winds will
develop, resulting in blowing and drifting snow. The snow will be
heaviest in northwest lower Michigan. See the ongoing winter
storm watch for details.

Accumulating snow is possible at times Thursday and Thursday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-051200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
415 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few gale force gusts are possible on Lake Michigan today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few gale force gusts are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Gale gusts are most likely near Tawas and Oscoda. See gale
warning for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.