Gale Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

019 
WHUS73 KAPX 041535
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1035 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

LHZ349-042345-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0001.220105T1200Z-220106T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1035 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-042345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1035 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 10 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-042345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1035 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace 
  to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt 
  MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-042345-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.220104T2100Z-220106T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1035 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

767 
WHUS73 KAPX 042034
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

LHZ349-050445-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0001.220105T1200Z-220106T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
334 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kts from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-050445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
334 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-050445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
334 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the south and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace 
  to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt 
  MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-050445-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.220104T2100Z-220106T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
334 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kts from the east and highest 
  waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

275 
WHUS73 KAPX 050340
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1040 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

LHZ349-051145-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0001.220105T1200Z-220106T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1040 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 40 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 9 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-051145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1040 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southeast and highest
  waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-051145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1040 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the southeast and 
  highest waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace 
  to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt 
  MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-051145-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1040 PM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the east and highest 
  waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

121 
WHUS73 KAPX 050923
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
423 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

LHZ349-051730-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0001.220105T1200Z-220106T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
423 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet expected.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-051730-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
423 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the northeast and 
  highest waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-051730-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
423 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the east and highest 
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace 
  to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt 
  MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-051730-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
423 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the northeast and 
  highest waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

978 
WHUS73 KAPX 051608
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1108 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

LHZ349-060015-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1108 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 35 kt from the southwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous highest waves 
  which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-060000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1108 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the north and highest 
  waves around 8 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-060000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1108 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 25 kt from the north and highest 
  waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace 
  to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt 
  MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-060000-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T0000Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1108 AM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kt from the northeast and highest
  waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

823 
WHUS73 KAPX 052040
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

LHZ349-060445-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220106T0200Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T2200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
340 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northwest and 
  highest waves around 6 feet.

* WHERE...Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-060445-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T2200Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
340 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 9 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Michigan. 

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ345>348-060445-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T2200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
340 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the north and highest 
  waves around 4 feet.

* WHERE...Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge 
  including Mackinac Island, 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island, St Ignace 
  to False Detour Channel and Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt 
  MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ321-322-060445-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T2200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
340 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Highest gusts up to 30 kts from the northeast and 
  highest waves around 5 feet.

* WHERE...St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing 
  Bay and Whitefish Bay (U. S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point 
  Iroquois MI.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
402 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

...Snow moves in late tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Trending moderate toward the very
end of the forecast period, as synoptic snow arrives.

Low pressure is moving east, north of Lk Huron. A boundary trails
off to western upper MI, where it transitions to a warm front
ahead of our next system, deepening in the northern plains. The
low will deepen further as it moves east, with a 992mb low over
central upper MI by dawn Wed. The progressive 500mb parent
shortwave will be closing off just w of the surface low overnight.
Snow will break out in advance of this system late tonight.

Nothing going on out there presently. An MVFR stratocu deck covers
most areas north of M-55, though with some thin spots in eastern
upper MI. Temps are mostly in the 20s under the clouds, though
with some teens outside of it (and 8f at ISQ). Westerly low-level
flow is generating some very low-end lake effect at the east end
of Superior; Sault Canada has reported -SN with 20SM vsby, which
is very very light indeed. A few snow showers/flurries remain
possible today north of M-28, and especially near Whitefish Pt,
with marginal instability but a very long w fetch. Otherwise,
mostly cloudy conditions will prevail M-72 and north, with partly
sunny becoming mostly cloudy in the far south.

Strengthening theta-e advection, initially strongest below 700mb,
will warm and moisten the column tonight. Bufr soundings show a
somewhat nonstandard bottom-up saturation taking place, but this
system doesn't have much of a warm conveyor belt. The upstream
airmass in the OH and mid-MS Valleys is dry; we are not tapping
Gulf moisture, or anything close to it. That said, dynamics really
start to ramp up overnight, and expect -SN to break out overnight
from w to e. There are some smaller chances for light precip
before that in the moistening low-level airmass. There is a usable
DGZ around 700mb, but the strongest lift is well below that (at
and below 850mb). And our BL will be on the warm side, especially
near Lake MI. So snow-liquid ratios will be somewhat limited
overnight, in the lower teens.

By 7am, expect about 2" of snow from MBL to the Dunes, and in far
western Mack Co. Amounts diminish to east; around 1" for the Sault
and St Iggy, and for TVC-CAD. Less that that to the east.

Mild temps today, near 30f to the mid 30s. Lows tonight in the
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating and blowing snow through
the period...

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

This past evening's surface analysis shows a SW-NE oriented boundary
bifurcating surface high pressure across the center of the
continent...generally extending from low pressure to our north in
southern Ontario...back into the Dakotas. This boundary then extends
to the northwest through central Montana and into southern British
Columbia...reflecting the baroclinic zone across the region...and
separating the cold air across Canada from the less cold air across
the northern US. Plentiful moisture is already spreading across the
Dakotas north of the front...in advance of the approaching shortwave
trough over the West Coast. 100+kt NW-SE oriented jet max aloft sits
over Michigan...with a stronger (140+kt) jet max rounding the base
of aforementioned troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest.

Going into Wednesday morning...will look for parent slightly
anomalous shortwave associated with our surface system to be located
just to our northwest, centered over northern Wisconsin/western
UP...potentially closed off, or nearly so, at 500mb....with a
neutral or perhaps slightly negative tilt as it sits in the left
exit region of a 100+kt upper level jet max rounding its base.
This shortwave feature appears to open back up through the day
Wednesday...as it progresses on its way through the flow rather
quickly. Quick on its heels will be a second shortwave sharpening up
across the central Plains/Upper Midwest ahead of a stronger (140+kt)
jet max diving in from the west/northwest...also becoming slightly
anomalous (-2 standard deviations)...which looks to swing through
the region through the day Thursday. There are still some
differences in the exact evolution of this second feature for
Thursday...so will keep an eye on it...but the overall idea seems to
be similar, on that shortwave energy swinging through Thursday into
the Thursday night...with the bulk of the energy further south than
for Wednesday, suggesting we should be colder behind this second
system.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Winds Wednesday...accumulating snow
Wednesday through Thursday...

With the surface low track still looking like it will be right
through the Straits...strongest winds should be largely displaced to
our south. That being said...will have to watch for some stronger
winds at times along the M-55 corridor, where the pressure gradient
will be strongest south of the system...and where the isallobaric
gradient is generally strongest (which could add extra oomph to
gusts with the fropa)...both early on, as the initial cold front
passes through...and later in the day/toward evening, as the
secondary cold front swings down from the northwest. There are some
signals for stronger winds in the western portions of Chip and Mack
in the eastern UP Wednesday afternoon behind the surface low...with
additional isallobaric concerns at times...though again, given the
surface low track...the strongest winds appear to stay just out over
Lake Superior. Will have to keep an eye on this...as a slight shift
in the track could bring much stronger winds across either our
southern CWA...or our northern areas.

Regarding moisture Wednesday and Wednesday night...we should be
pretty well saturated by Monday morning across most, if not all, of
the CWA...even right up through 400mb, per guidance derived
soundings. Model pwats between 0.30 and 0.40 inches across the area
Wednesday morning would be on the high end of climatology for this
time of year...suggesting that moisture will be deep and abundant.
This should (fortunately) be on the decrease through the day...as
the system moves on out...though both mid-level and boundary layer
moisture appear to remain decent across the area right on into
Wednesday night...with wraparound moisture present as the secondary
cold front drops through.

Best upper-level forcing appears to be early in the day
Wednesday...as we'll be nearest to the left exit region of that
120+kt jet max aloft...and will still be ahead of the shortwave
aloft. This will depart quickly to the east as the system itself
departs...leaving us with forcing largely related to the fronts
themselves. Guidance still points to some better low-level
convergence along our west coast Wednesday morning as the cold
front swings through...potentially with a touch of southwest-flow
lake enhancement in some areas. Additional foci for low-level
convergence appear to be associated with the surface front itself,
as well as the more or less zonally-oriented secondary/reinforcing
cold front that drops in from the north Wednesday afternoon behind
the departing low. Will have to watch this for lake enhancement
potential as well along the Lake Michigan coast yet again, as winds
shift to more northwest behind this front. Guidance is still trying
to nail down the exact position of this secondary front Wednesday
afternoon...which could be anywhere from the eastern UP to the Tip
of the Mitt...so will have to watch this as well.
Interestingly...some guidance would like to have some mid-level
frontogenesis during the early-mid afternoon Wednesday across
Northern Lower...ahead of the cold front sweeping through. The
interesting part about this is that the warm side of this band would
be to the north or northeast of the fgen max (a bit contrary to what
you'd normally expect), given the tongue of cold air sweeping around
the southwest side of the surface low. With the potential trowal in
play with this system, too...will have to monitor the northwest
quadrant of the system for additional enhancement of snowfall totals
going into the latter part of Wednesday.

Thermal profile with regard to overlake instability will be
interesting...depending on exactly where that axis of warmer air
sets up. As mentioned above related to the frontogenesis...with that
cold air advecting in south of the surface low, will initially look
for 925mb temps around -8 or -10C behind that first cold front
Wednesday morning, particularly across our southwest...which will
easily be sufficient for overlake instability, given lake surface
temps around 4-5C. Will actually see some warmer temps aloft advect
southward for a time Wednesday afternoon along the Lake Michigan
coast...closer to -6C (ish) in the afternoon...ahead of the
secondary front...with temps returning to those -10C or colder
numbers behind it. A plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates appears
to move through Wednesday morning as well...ahead of the cold
front...which could keep things more unstable aloft for a time. Will
look for low-level conditional instability along the lakeshore to be
realized, given boundary layer moisture in place, suggesting the
lake will indeed remain in play going into Wednesday night. Model
derived sounding suggest this as well...particularly as we go into
Wednesday night...still with more of a signal for lake enhancement
more so than pure lake effect.

Bottom line for Wednesday into Wednesday night (but particularly
Wednesday)...it will snow, with the highest totals likely in the
pinky finger of Michigan (that is, Leelanau, Benzie,
Manistee)...with some uncertainty as to how far inland those highest
totals will go. Attm...looks like an easy 3-6+" for that area
just during the daylight hours Wednesday, and will not be surprised
if some localized areas exceed that, given lake enhancement. (24
hour totals will obviously be higher.) Additionally...with the
stronger winds in this region...though not as strong as points
further south...will have some blowing/drifting/visibility concerns
to deal with. Still have some concerns for higher amounts as well
across the Tip of the Mitt/eastern Upper as well...though perhaps
not adding up quite as quickly as the Pinky finger, given the
general lack of lake enhancement.

As for Thursday...will look for cyclonic flow/troughing to hang out
across the area as the next upstream niblet sharpens up with an
incoming jet. Here in the Great Lakes...will look for continued
moisture over our region...slowly diminishing through the night
Thursday night as ridging approaches from the west. Bulk of the
upper level forcing will remain to our south this time...with
mesoscale/lake factors mainly in play. Even so...guidance derived
soundings still suggest this will not be pure lake effect. Sharp,
positively tilted troughing actually keeps some winds more
northeasterly across NE Lower...suggesting we may have some
northeast flow lake effect in play for a change...though low-level
convergence with this is not terribly strong. Will still have some
concerns for north-ish flow lake effect/enhancement along the Lake
Michigan coast as well, near the base of the aforementioned trough
going into Thursday night. (This could affect NE Lower as well.) So
will look for perhaps a slightly more widespread snow Thursday than
pure lake effect as that boundary/trough slides through, with
localized higher totals under the heavier bands (particularly in the
same areas impacted most by Wednesday's system...those pinky finger
counties of northwest Lower). Additionally...with regard to
Thursday...it will be much colder than Wednesday...with temperatures
likely not recovering much from overnight lows Wednesday night
(single digits across Eastern Upper and teens across most of
Northern Lower)...as cold advection draws some -15C air at 850mb
overhead for Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Lingering accumulating lake effect
snow Friday...more cold air early next week?

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Second shortwave axis should be departing up the East Coast by
Friday morning...with a brief shot at ridging for Friday into
Friday night. This should help shut off any remaining lake
effect...though the lake aggregate trough should be
present...keeping some semblance of cyclonic flow in place over the
Great Lakes into the end of the workweek/start of the weekend.
Another shortwave shaping up across the northwestern US late Friday
night/early Saturday will bring the next system in for the weekend.
Attm...this appears to briefly settle a trough in across the Great
Lakes/eastern US...bringing some of the coldest air yet right along
with it, though guidance has been bouncing back and forth a little
the last few days on just how cold we will/won't go for the latter
half of the weekend/early next week. After all, Monday morning is
156hrs out from the current (00z/04) run...so some uncertainty is to
be expected...and there is still plenty of time to get details
ironed out. Even so...guidance seems to like this idea of a
brief shot of cold air for early next week...so will have to monitor
that going forward as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022

Weak low pressure centered NE of Lake Superior will continue to
push eastward thru Ontario and Quebec overnight. Meanwhile...a
much stronger low pressure system will push out of the Northern
Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Northern
Lower Michigan will remain dry with mainly MVFR cigs thru Tuesday
as these two systems remain north and west of our area
respectively. Our next chance of snow will develop Tuesday night
as that upstream low pressure system pushes thru Wisconsin.
Surface winds will remain from the SW at around 10 kts tonight...
becoming south at 10 to 20 kts on Tuesday and then SE Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

Complicated marine forecast over the next few days. Southerly
winds ramp up somewhat today, especially on Lake MI, ahead of
strengthening low pressure that moves into the northern lakes late
tonight. Gusty winds return across the entire area on Wednesday/
Wed evening, as colder air swings back in behind the departing
low. Most confident that gales will be reached Wed near Oscoda and
Tawas, otherwise it will be close to gales at times. Will reassess
marine headlines in a bit.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH from late tonight through late Wednesday
     night for MIZ020-025-026-031-032-098.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     LHZ349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
354 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-051200-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
354 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Snow will move into northern Michigan late tonight. Accumulations
will be highest near Lake Michigan in both eastern upper and
northwest lower Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Accumulating snow continues Wednesday and Wednesday evening,
before diminishing to lake effect snow showers. Gusty winds will
develop, resulting in blowing and drifting snow. The snow will be
heaviest in northwest lower Michigan. See the ongoing winter
storm watch for details.

Accumulating snow is possible at times Thursday and Thursday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-051200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
354 AM EST Tue Jan 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few gale force gusts are possible on Lake Michigan today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few gale force gusts are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JZ