Gale Warning 2, NWS Juneau, AK

508 
FZAK67 PAJK 081255
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-090700-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
Lower pressure remains in the gulf with a weak front extending 
eastward across the Southern Panhandle Saturday morning. A second 
Gale force front lifts northward through the region Saturday 
evening through Sunday. At the same time, a strong area of low 
pressure moves northward toward Kodiak Island by Sunday evening. 
Outlook. A series of strong lows and fronts move into the region 
next week. 
 

$$

PKZ310-090700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
355 AM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S gale to 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

195 
FZAK67 PAJK 082354
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-091800-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front lifts northward through the region Saturday
evening through Sunday. At the same time, a strong area of low 
pressure moves northward toward Kodiak Island by Sunday evening. 
Outlook. A series of strong lows and fronts move into the region 
next week. 

$$

PKZ310-091800-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
254 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SE swell. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

718 
FZAK67 PAJK 091254
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 AM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-100700-
354 AM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force front lifts northward through the region Sunday. At 
the same time, a strong area of low pressure moves northward 
toward Kodiak Island by Sunday evening. Outlook. A series of 
strong lows and fronts move into the region next week. 

$$

PKZ310-100700-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
354 AM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft building to 26 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. SE swell. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.WED...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

299 
FZAK67 PAJK 100030
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
330 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-101830-
330 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A storm force low will cross the outer coast west of Yakutat by
this evening. Gale force winds will persist over the eastern
Gulf of Alaska through Monday as a wave rides north along the
existing frontal boundary. Outlook. A series of strong lows and 
fronts will move over the region through mid week. 

$$

PKZ310-101830-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
330 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt. Seas 23 ft
subsiding to 17 ft late. 
.MON...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE...W wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...Winds light increasing to NW 15 kt late. Seas
10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

531 
FZAK67 PAJK 100846
OFFAJK

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1146 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

Offshore waters forecast for Gulf of Alaska east of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ398-110300-
1146 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A gale force low moves northward through the central gulf through
Tuesday. At the same time, an associated front lifts north 
through the Panhandle. Outlook. A series of additional lows and 
fronts will move northward through the Gulf this week. 

$$

PKZ310-110300-
Gulf of Alaska North of 55 Degrees North and East of 144 Degrees
West-
1146 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022


.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas17 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SE swell. 
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. SE swell. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. S swell. 
.TUE NIGHT...Winds light increasing to NW 15 kt late. Seas
10 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau
AK 252 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Friday night to Monday/ A complex and dynamic
weather pattern for the weekend and into next week. Still a fair
amount of uncertainty with forecast details, so expect updates and
changes to occur as more information and ground truth is collected.
All areas in Southeast AK should prepare for the incoming weather
which will consist of: heavy accumulating snow, changes from snow to
rain with potential of heavy rain and possibly freezing rain or
drizzle due to warming temperatures, and increased winds with very
strong gusts. The result from this is not limited to difficulties in
all travel methods, but also increased snow loading on all
structures, boats, and aircraft, increased avalanche danger, and
with rain on snow potential of local flooding issues and surface ice
development. Add in winds there is potential for power outages due
to downed trees and power lines.

The blocking pattern that had been in place the past week breaks
down and we shift from cold dry northerly outflow to more southerly
flow with a warmer air mass and increased precipitation. A weak
trough over the AK Gulf Friday evening shifts south but for now
keeps any precip offshore. By late Friday night into Saturday
morning, snow showers move over the southern panhandle from this
trough ahead of a stronger front. At this time, we do not expect
this shower band to move much further north than Frederick Sound and
should only see an inch or two of accumulations.

The first main front tracks up from the south Saturday afternoon as
parent low moves into the South Central Gulf. Still differences on
models on timing of this front, but for now it has a good swath of
QPF and with the cold air in place expect all locations to start as
snow. As the low moves north heavier precip develops through Sunday,
but along with this heavy precip is a warmer air mass and rising
snow levels. Locations south of Frederick Sound look good for winds
to shift south and temps to steadily rise into the upper 30s and low
40s through early Monday. Coastal areas will follow a similar
timing, but the central areas are more tricky to pin down. New
pressure patterns keep northerly flow and thus keep precip as all
snow or at least a rain snow mix v becoming all rain into Monday.
This colder air also increases snow ratio so snow totals may be
higher. As of now looking at snow totals for the south between 4 to
12 inches, central areas 14 to 26 and the north 18 to 26. For snow
amount details see area forecast and winter weather hazard
statements. To make matters more complicated the warm air mass that
moves in aloft may go above freezing but surface temps at the same
time stay below freezing until the entire column mixes. This is the
set up for freezing rain/drizzle.

Outflow and northerly winds shift to a more frontal nature by
Saturday night with gulf winds nearing 50 kts. Inner channel winds
will not see much of a reprise with gales and small craft winds
continuing into the weekend, albeit for different dynamic reasoning.
Overland winds gust also reaching 40 to 55 mph with the fronts which
will add to issues where heavy snow has loaded trees and power
lines.

The low previously discussed moves into the NE Gulf into early
Monday and precip rates look to diminish as another low center moves
up from the south and increases rainfall over the southern areas.
This is where flooding potential is more likely an issue and will be
monitored, however not discounting rain issues for any SE AK
locations.

Ensembles still had a spread on PoP location, QPF, snow totals, and
temps. NBM was a fair middle ground and decided to nudge toward
operations model temps v bias corrected due to pattern shift. This
kept the central colder a bit longer in line with the N winds. GFS
was still fastest moving in precip while NAM kept everything too far
to the south. Besides the minor changes to Monday wind directions,
temps and snow ratios kept previous grids mostly as is. Even though
warnings have been issued, confidence is still low regarding
details, especially with potential for higher snow amounts.

.LONG TERM.../ Tuesday Onwards / Ensembles and operational runs
alike continue to be at odds with timing, intensity, and location of
a parade of systems which will race in from the south as a
reorientation of the jet stream results major changes to storm
pattern over the Pacific. While another system is increasingly
anticipated for Tuesday, widespread disagreement prevents any
details from being forecast with beyond this point. What all
guidance does agree on is that there will be rain and snow through
the timeframe. The repeated systems moving out of the S will help
maintain warmer weather over the area in stark contrast to what has
been seen recently. Given this warmer weather, expect rain or a rain
snow mix to be abundant throughout the timeframe. However some minor
accumulating snow cannot be ruled out- especially overnight or in
the N panhandle.

With this in mind, made only minimal changes to the wind grids as
wind direction and speed will be largely dependent on the timing and
placement of various systems-though it must be noted that wind
speeds and direction could change significantly as confidence grows
in coming days. Moved temperatures more towards the NBM, which
slightly moderated the warmup, while still keeping it in forecast-as
is supported by anticipated 850 mb heights. Forecaster confidence is
high for anticipated precip and the warmer weather, but low for
precipitation type and exact timing or intensity.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 6 PM AKST Sunday
for      AKZ026-028.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM AKST Sunday
     for AKZ027.
     Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to 9 PM AKST Sunday for
     AKZ020>022-024-025.
     Strong Wind through late tonight for AKZ025.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Saturday to noon AKST Sunday for
     AKZ023.
     Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM AKST Monday for
     AKZ029.
     Winter Storm Warning from midnight Saturday night to 6 AM AKST
     Monday for AKZ017>019.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ032.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-031-042-043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-032>036-041-051>053.

&&

PRB/GFS

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

AKZ017>029-090200-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
317 PM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

...RAIN AND HIGH FREEZING LEVELS TO FOLLOW SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
WINTER STORM...

There is high confidence in a pattern shift with rain and warmer
temperatures next week following a significant winter storm that
will likely drop more heavy snow across our region. Winter storm
warnings and advisories have been issued for heavy snow amounts
across Southeast Alaska. As snow transitions to rain or even heavy
rain Sunday into Monday, conditions will worsen, become very
slippery, and promote significant ponding. Additional heavy snow
on top of already deep snowpack on roof-tops and other structures,
boats, and aircraft will become heavier as rain-soaked snow
challenges load capability. Rain in higher terrain and higher
freezing levels could also lead to a risk of nuisance flooding
into next week. Finally, we are also concerned that an abrupt
rise in temperatures and freezing levels could mean an increased
risk of avalanches near steep terrain.