Gale Warning 10, NWS Juneau, AK

444 
FZAK51 PAJK 011303
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-020345-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
Low pressure in the northern gulf moves south into the gulf
through Saturday. High pressure builds over the Yukon through
the weekend. 

$$

PKZ011-020345-
Glacier Bay-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Snow showers and rain showers. Freezing spray in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NW gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-020345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming N in the morning, then increasing
to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then
2 ft or less, then then 5 ft in the afternoon. Snow early in the
morning, then snow showers. Freezing spray in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...N storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas
10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas
9 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-020345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming NW in the morning, then becoming N
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Snow early in the morning,
then snow showers. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt late. Gusts to 60 kt
late. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers in the evening. Freezing spray
late. 
.SUN...N storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt, except
70 kt out of interior passes. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N storm force wind to 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas
8 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-020345-
Icy Strait-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain early in the
morning, then snow showers and rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers in the evening. 
.SUN...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-020345-
Cross Sound-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow and rain early in the
morning, then rain showers and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt late. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...E gale to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE gale to 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...NE gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-020345-
Stephens Passage-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to
4 ft. Snow and rain early in the morning, then snow showers and
rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt, Gusts to 45 kt late. North of Taku
Inlet, N wind 25 kt becoming NE 45 kt late. Seas 5 ft. Freezing
spray late. 
.SUN...N gale to 45 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-020345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow early in the
morning. Rain and snow showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow showers. 
.SUN...N gale to 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing
spray in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...N gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-020345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain early in the morning, then rain showers and snow
showers. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
late. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas
9 ft. Snow showers and rain showers. 
.SUN...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Snow showers with rain showers in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-020345-
Frederick Sound-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATE 
TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the morning, then
becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow early in
the morning. Snow showers. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt 
late. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft late. 
.SUN...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt, except 40 kt out
of interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-020345-
Sumner Strait-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 
4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow early in the
morning then snow showers. Rain showers in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
late. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Snow showers
and rain showers. 
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. Snow showers in the morning. Rain showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 5 ft,
except 10 ft near ocean entrances. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-020345-
Clarence Strait-
403 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Out of interior
passes, gusts to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 11 ft subsiding
to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
late. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt
in the morning. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Rain
showers and snow showers. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft near ocean entrances. Freezing
spray. 
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1123 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

.UPDATE...The colder air has proven much more resilient than
originally expected through the southern Inner Channels, so we
extended the winter storm warning through 6 AM. Latest 11 PM
observations have come in with the trend towards rain, but even so
nasty conditions out will make travel difficult. Elsewhere,
snowfall has trended on the wetter side, and the great originally
forecasted accumulations are more doubtful, but conditions still
warrant the warnings. We will receive further reports come
morning, aside from some calls to law enforcement and other
emergency management officials overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...344 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday Night/...The well advertised
winter storm started this morning with pre-frontal precipitation
in the form of snow across much of the panhandle. Yakutat picked
up a quick 6 inches of snow, but most areas received anywhere from
a dusting to 3 inches with the first round. Both Sitka and Port
Alexander have changed to rain, so the advisory there was
cancelled. Some areas through the Icy Strait corridor have seen a
distinct break in the precipitation intensity, but never fear,
there is more on the doorstep. As of 2pm, the main precipitation
shield is sitting just offshore, so expect precip rates to
increase through the afternoon hours. Warnings appear to still be
on track for tonight into tomorrow. A change from snow to rain is
still expected for the southern areas which will limit snowfall
totals.

As the parent surface low pressure moves from the northern gulf to
the south tomorrow, models are indicating banded precipitation
setting up over the central to southern panhandle. For this
forecast package included up to an additional 3 inches of
snowfall for Saturday night from areas near Petersburg to the
south. There is some uncertainty regarding when places that turned
to rain will change back to snow. There is also uncertainty as to
exactly where the band will set up, so this feature will continue
to be refined as new model data arrives.

Also in the Saturday night period, northerly winds begin to pick
up across the northern panhandle with models showing a 1050mb
high pressure over the Yukon, and with the low pressure to our
south, that sets up quite the pressure gradient. With the deep
layer of cold air in Canada, expect winds to be ramping up
Saturday night in the typical outflow areas (Downtown Juneau, Lynn
Canal, Taku, etc.) Winds and gusts were increased accordingly.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday Night/ Lingering showers from the weekend
storm will continue to move out of the region on Sunday as high
pressure begins to establish itself in the Yukon. This high pressure
will be the main feature of the forecast period. As it builds, a
very strong pressure gradient will kick up the winds, mainly for
northern portions of the panhandle. To account for this, a High Wind
Watch has been issued for Downtown Juneau and Skagway. Strong winds
are also expected in Haines but confidence in reaching "High Wind"
criteria is lacking at this time. As further guidance becomes
available, will be better prepared to issue any headlines for there
and other locations if needed. Expect that this will also translate
to storm force winds through Lynn Canal with Gales and high end
small craft winds, mainly through N-S aligned channels, as you
travel further south. Arctic outflow around the high will also cause
a massive dip in the temperatures. Well below normal temperatures
are currently in the forecast for the entirety of next week with
several daily records potentially in Jeopardy. Extreme low
temperatures for the month of January appear to be safe at this
point (among observation sites with long established periods of
record) but the chance of setting such a benchmark somewhere is not
zero. Little to no PoP in the forecast means that the cold and the
wind are the forecast challenges. Since the snowfall will be ending
at approximately the beginning of the strongest winds, blowing snow
may become a travel concern for some locations. Another potential
hazard will be the combination of wind and frigid temperatures will
likely lead to wind chill concerns. As of now, the higher elevations
along the Klondike Hwy appear to be the most likely place to see
such issues, but regardless of weather or not advisory or warning
criteria are met, many locations will likely feel very uncomfortable
if outside for too long.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Saturday for AKZ025-026.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018>022-024.
     High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
     night for AKZ018-025.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ017-028.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-034-036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-035-041>043-051>053.

&&

BFL/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1131 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 NE MENDENHALL VALLEY  58.38N 134.57W
12/31/2021  M6.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CLEARED DRIVEWAY OF ESTIMATED LESS THAN 2
            INCHES OF SNOW AROUND 4PM. MEASURED 6 INCHES
            OF NEW SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 10PM.

&&

GJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1151 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 E YAKUTAT             59.55N 139.71W
12/31/2021  M6.0 INCH        YAKUTAT            AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER REPORTED THAT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
            ACCUMULATION HAS FALLEN. THERE IS CURRENTLY
            A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION.

0740 PM     SNOW             KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
12/31/2021  M3.0 INCH        KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MENTION HAD 3" DOWN WHERE HE LIVED. HEARD
            THAT THE WALMART AREA MAY HAVE 4 TO 6
            INCHES.

0930 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 SSW JUNEAU            58.29N 134.43W
12/31/2021  E7.8 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            7.8 INCHES REPORTED AT WEST JUNEAU. LIGHT
            WET SNOW STILL COMING DOWN WITH VISIBILITY
            1-2 SM. 3.6 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 5AM-NOON,
            4.2 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9:30 PM.

1000 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 NE MENDENHALL VALLEY  58.38N 134.57W
12/31/2021  M6.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CLEARED DRIVEWAY OF ESTIMATED LESS THAN 2
            INCHES OF SNOW AROUND 4PM. MEASURED 6 INCHES
            OF NEW SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 10PM.

0915 PM     SNOW             PELICAN                 57.96N 136.23W
12/31/2021  M8.0 INCH        HOONAH-ANGOON      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 PM     HEAVY SNOW       7 SSE HAINES            59.15N 135.35W
12/31/2021  M12.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MUD BAY RECORDED 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN 18
            HOURS. THREE INCHES FELL BETWEEN 5 AM AND
            1:30 PM, AND 9 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 1:30 PM
            AND 11:30 PM.

&&