Gale Warning 1, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1123 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

.UPDATE...The colder air has proven much more resilient than
originally expected through the southern Inner Channels, so we
extended the winter storm warning through 6 AM. Latest 11 PM
observations have come in with the trend towards rain, but even so
nasty conditions out will make travel difficult. Elsewhere,
snowfall has trended on the wetter side, and the great originally
forecasted accumulations are more doubtful, but conditions still
warrant the warnings. We will receive further reports come
morning, aside from some calls to law enforcement and other
emergency management officials overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT ...344 PM AKST Fri Dec 31 2021

SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday Night/...The well advertised
winter storm started this morning with pre-frontal precipitation
in the form of snow across much of the panhandle. Yakutat picked
up a quick 6 inches of snow, but most areas received anywhere from
a dusting to 3 inches with the first round. Both Sitka and Port
Alexander have changed to rain, so the advisory there was
cancelled. Some areas through the Icy Strait corridor have seen a
distinct break in the precipitation intensity, but never fear,
there is more on the doorstep. As of 2pm, the main precipitation
shield is sitting just offshore, so expect precip rates to
increase through the afternoon hours. Warnings appear to still be
on track for tonight into tomorrow. A change from snow to rain is
still expected for the southern areas which will limit snowfall
totals.

As the parent surface low pressure moves from the northern gulf to
the south tomorrow, models are indicating banded precipitation
setting up over the central to southern panhandle. For this
forecast package included up to an additional 3 inches of
snowfall for Saturday night from areas near Petersburg to the
south. There is some uncertainty regarding when places that turned
to rain will change back to snow. There is also uncertainty as to
exactly where the band will set up, so this feature will continue
to be refined as new model data arrives.

Also in the Saturday night period, northerly winds begin to pick
up across the northern panhandle with models showing a 1050mb
high pressure over the Yukon, and with the low pressure to our
south, that sets up quite the pressure gradient. With the deep
layer of cold air in Canada, expect winds to be ramping up
Saturday night in the typical outflow areas (Downtown Juneau, Lynn
Canal, Taku, etc.) Winds and gusts were increased accordingly.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday Night/ Lingering showers from the weekend
storm will continue to move out of the region on Sunday as high
pressure begins to establish itself in the Yukon. This high pressure
will be the main feature of the forecast period. As it builds, a
very strong pressure gradient will kick up the winds, mainly for
northern portions of the panhandle. To account for this, a High Wind
Watch has been issued for Downtown Juneau and Skagway. Strong winds
are also expected in Haines but confidence in reaching "High Wind"
criteria is lacking at this time. As further guidance becomes
available, will be better prepared to issue any headlines for there
and other locations if needed. Expect that this will also translate
to storm force winds through Lynn Canal with Gales and high end
small craft winds, mainly through N-S aligned channels, as you
travel further south. Arctic outflow around the high will also cause
a massive dip in the temperatures. Well below normal temperatures
are currently in the forecast for the entirety of next week with
several daily records potentially in Jeopardy. Extreme low
temperatures for the month of January appear to be safe at this
point (among observation sites with long established periods of
record) but the chance of setting such a benchmark somewhere is not
zero. Little to no PoP in the forecast means that the cold and the
wind are the forecast challenges. Since the snowfall will be ending
at approximately the beginning of the strongest winds, blowing snow
may become a travel concern for some locations. Another potential
hazard will be the combination of wind and frigid temperatures will
likely lead to wind chill concerns. As of now, the higher elevations
along the Klondike Hwy appear to be the most likely place to see
such issues, but regardless of weather or not advisory or warning
criteria are met, many locations will likely feel very uncomfortable
if outside for too long.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until noon AKST Saturday for AKZ025-026.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ018>022-024.
     High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through late Sunday
     night for AKZ018-025.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ017-028.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ029.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ031-034-036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-032-033-035-041>043-051>053.

&&

BFL/JDR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1131 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 NE MENDENHALL VALLEY  58.38N 134.57W
12/31/2021  M6.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CLEARED DRIVEWAY OF ESTIMATED LESS THAN 2
            INCHES OF SNOW AROUND 4PM. MEASURED 6 INCHES
            OF NEW SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 10PM.

&&

GJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1151 PM AKST FRI DEC 31 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     HEAVY SNOW       1 E YAKUTAT             59.55N 139.71W
12/31/2021  M6.0 INCH        YAKUTAT            AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER REPORTED THAT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
            ACCUMULATION HAS FALLEN. THERE IS CURRENTLY
            A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION.

0740 PM     SNOW             KETCHIKAN               55.36N 131.69W
12/31/2021  M3.0 INCH        KETCHIKAN GATEWAY  AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MENTION HAD 3" DOWN WHERE HE LIVED. HEARD
            THAT THE WALMART AREA MAY HAVE 4 TO 6
            INCHES.

0930 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 SSW JUNEAU            58.29N 134.43W
12/31/2021  E7.8 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            7.8 INCHES REPORTED AT WEST JUNEAU. LIGHT
            WET SNOW STILL COMING DOWN WITH VISIBILITY
            1-2 SM. 3.6 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 5AM-NOON,
            4.2 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9:30 PM.

1000 PM     HEAVY SNOW       1 NE MENDENHALL VALLEY  58.38N 134.57W
12/31/2021  M6.0 INCH        JUNEAU             AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            CLEARED DRIVEWAY OF ESTIMATED LESS THAN 2
            INCHES OF SNOW AROUND 4PM. MEASURED 6 INCHES
            OF NEW SNOW SHORTLY AFTER 10PM.

0915 PM     SNOW             PELICAN                 57.96N 136.23W
12/31/2021  M8.0 INCH        HOONAH-ANGOON      AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 PM     HEAVY SNOW       7 SSE HAINES            59.15N 135.35W
12/31/2021  M12.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MUD BAY RECORDED 12 INCHES OF SNOW IN 18
            HOURS. THREE INCHES FELL BETWEEN 5 AM AND
            1:30 PM, AND 9 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 1:30 PM
            AND 11:30 PM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
149 AM AKST SAT JAN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     HEAVY SNOW       5 SSE HAINES            59.17N 135.39W
01/01/2022  E15.0 INCH       HAINES             AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER HAS REPORTED 15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
            FALLEN SO FAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
            CURRENT SYSTEM, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
            CONTINUING TO FALL.

&&