Wind Advisory 48, NWS Fairbanks, AK

569 
WWAK73 PAFG 140534
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
834 PM AKST Tue Dec 13 2022

AKZ226-140645-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WI.Y.0048.000000T0000Z-221214T0600Z/
Eastern Alaska Range-
Including the cities of Black Rapids, Donnelly Dome, 
Trims DOT Camp, Eagle Trail, and Mineral Lake
834 PM AKST Tue Dec 13 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
345 AM AKST Tue Dec 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively quiet weather exists across the Central and Eastern
Interior this morning and will remain so into the early afternoon
hours. This is ahead of a relatively weak storm that is moving
into Southwest Alaska that will track east today, spreading light
snow across the Interior, making it into the Fairbanks Area by
this evening. Active weather will once again plague portions of
the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday as another storm moves
north across the Alaska Range into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The current pattern at 500 hpa consists of 488 decameter (dam) low
near Wrangel Island with a weak 512 dam low over Southwest Alaska
with weak ridging across the Central and Eastern Interior. Over
the next several days, this pattern progresses eastward, with the
low near Wrangel Island pushing a shortwave through the Interior
this afternoon into Wednesday. With another trough moving across
the Interior Thursday. Overall, Northern Alaska will be
encompassed by troughing, keeping conditions active for many
locations today into Thursday.

At the surface, the main features early this morning are a 992 mb
low moving into Southwest Alaska, a weak trough over the Seward
Peninsula north into the Upper Kobuk Valley, and a 1020 mb high
over the Eastern Interior. As the day progresses, these features
will shift east, with the low in Southwest Alaska spreading snow
across the Interior, primarily south of the Brooks Range, and
weakening Wednesday morning across the Eastern Interior.
Attention shifts to Thursday with a stronger system lifting north
and spreading moisture into the Central and Eastern Interior,
increasing the threat of snow for the Fairbanks Area. While the
West Coast and Western Interior, along with the North Slope,
dries out as a 1045 mb high builds in across the region.

Model Discussion...
Model spread between solutions as far as feature position, track,
and strength remains in general good agreement through Thursday.
Solutions have improved in their performance from a couple of days
ago. All are handling the weak system affecting the Interior today
and with the next system on Thursday. With that being said, for
this mornings's forecast package, we went with a general blend of
model solutions, making minor changes to the inherited forecast.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A tight pressure gradient set up over Barter Island during the
overnight hours, creating blizzard conditions for a few hours,
but that has since improved as winds diminished and visibility
improved. Otherwise, relatively benign weather conditions will
exist across most of the region over the next several days. A
weak system will affect portions of the Central and Eastern Brooks
Range Wednesday with light snow, then quickly exit stage right
into the Yukon by Thursday morning. On the temperature front, a
cooling trend over the next several days for most areas with highs
dropping to around zero for coastal communities and into the mid
single digits below zeros for inland locations.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A weak trough across the Seward Peninsula north into the Upper
Kobuk Valley will shift east today bringing chances of light snow
into this afternoon. While another system moves into Southwest
Alaska this morning, bringing light snow to the Lower Yukon Delta
and then east into the Middle Yukon Valley and Upper Kuskokwim
Valley by this afternoon and coming to an end by early Wednesday
morning. Snow accumulations will generally be light, with the
highest amounts across the Upper Kuskokwim Valley where 2 to 4
inches are possible. Another system will move north, affecting
mainly the Upper Kuskokwim Valley Thursday, with up to 3 inches,
with the highest amounts southeast of McGrath.

Central and Eastern Interior...
After the recent snows for many locations across the region, enjoy
the brief respite this morning into the early afternoon hours as
another weak system will move through this evening. This will
increase the threat of light snow across the Interior with
generally less than an inch of snow accumulations by Wednesday
morning. Elsewhere, winds through Alaska Range passes will ramp up
this morning with gusts to around 45 mph and then diminish by
tonight. Attention shifts to Thursday as another system moves in
from the south, bringing another round of snow across the Central
and Eastern Interior, primarily south of Stevens Village, with
many areas seeing 2 to 4 inches by Friday morning, with higher
amounts east and southeast of Fairbanks and across the Alaska
Range where generally 4 to 8 inches are possible.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
No concerns at this time.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 through 7...
For the extended period that begins Friday, models indicate a
relatively benign weather pattern across Northern Alaska with
ridging building across the West Coast while a trough digs down
across the Yukon and into the Eastern Interior. This will usher in
much colder temperatures into the Central and Eastern Interior by
the weekend and by early next week, lows could dip down into the
mid 40s below for the typical cold spots across the Fortymile
Country. Stay tuned...

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ201-210-220-225.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201-210.

&&

RZ DEC 22