Blizzard Warning 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

724 
WWAK41 PAFG 131140
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
240 AM AKST Tue Dec 13 2022

AKZ204-131245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0017.000000T0000Z-221213T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
240 AM AKST Tue Dec 13 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
209 PM AKST Mon Dec 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Active weather continues for our forecast area today. A weather
system is pushing across the state today, bringing light snow for
the interior north to the Eastern North Slope. Right on its heals
is the next system moving into the West Coast. This storm is not
nearly as strong as the last one, bringing just some light snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Aloft: At the 500mb level, a deep shortwave is working its way
across the state, currently located directly over the center of
the state. It stems from a closed low located over Wrangel Island
off the northern coast of Siberia. This trough then is oriented
from the Northwest Coast south to Prince William Sound. This low
and trough pretty much encompass our entire forecast area and much
of the mainland of AK. Being under low pressure is the reason for
our continued active weather.

Surface: On the surface a closed low of 983mb exists in the Prince
William Sound. This is located at the base of the upper level
trough. A ridge exists over the Western Interior, while a weak
trough is over the Bering strait. Some troughing also exists over
the North Slope, but this area of our forecast area doesn't have
any signficant features.

Models: Models initialized well and maintain good agreement
through the short term. The have improved in their performance
from a couple days ago. All show the exit of the weather system in
the interior exiting as expected, with the next system being
handled well also. This leads to high forecast confidence in the
short term.

North Slope and Brooks Range: Relatively quiet weather exists over
the North Slope today. Some light snow is falling on the Eastern
North Slope in association with the weather system moving through
most of state. Other than that, pretty quiet weather for the next
few days on the North Slope, as the storm track is keeping
significant weather south of the Brooks Range. Just some gusty
westerly winds immediately on the coast, which is common this time
of year.

West Coast and Western Interior: Some light snow is moving into
the Seward Peninsula today associated with the weak trough in the
Bering Strait. This is expected to exit tonight, then the weather
should actually quiet for the next few days, giving the area a
much needed break. This break is the result of the next weather
system staying to the south of our forecast area and then a break
entirely of weather systems entering the West Coast.

Central and Eastern Interior: light snow is falling across the
interior today. The back edge is moving through the Central
Interior now and is well defined, so weather should clear quickly
when it does stop snowing. The interior will have a short break,
then the next chance of snow will be tomorrow through tomorrow night.
Just some light accumulations are expected of this next round of
an inch at most for the interior.

Extended (Days 4-7): Moderate confidence going into the extended
forecast. Models do indicate an active weather pattern
continuing for the rest of the week, then a substantial ridge
building over the West Coast for the weekend. If this comes to
fruition, our forecast area could see some very cold temperatures
starting this weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ221>223-225-226.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ224.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ201-210-220.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ225.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&

BJB