Storm Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

577 
FZAK51 PAFG 052313
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
313 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-061415-
313 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong weather front in the Western Bering Sea will move to 
the Dateline by 12am Sun and to the Bering Strait by 6am Sun, then
east to Utqiagvik by 4pm Sun. Another strong storm will move north
to the Southern Chukchi Sea by late Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ225-061415-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
313 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 45 kt increasing to 60 kt. Seas 9 ft building
to 16 ft. Freezing fog and blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 60 kt. Seas 16 ft. Blowing snow and freezing fog.
Vsby 1 NM or less. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-061415-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
313 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE winds 30 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 7 ft building
to 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...S winds 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE...S winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU...S winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-061415-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
313 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to
6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or
less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM
or less. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-061415-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
313 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...S winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 20 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-061415-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
313 PM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. 
.SUN...SE winds 15 kt. 
.SUN NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.MON...SW winds 10 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SE winds 15 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 15 kt. 
.WED...E winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt.  

$$

Nov 22

138 
FZAK51 PAFG 061200
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
300 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-070315-
300 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A strong weather front in the Western Bering Sea will move to 
to the Bering Strait by 6am Sun, then east to Utqiagvik by 4pm 
Sun. Another strong storm will move north to the Southern Chukchi 
Sea by Tuesday morning.

$$

PKZ225-070315-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
300 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S winds 50 kt becoming SW 40 kt. Seas 17 ft subsiding to
12 ft. Freezing fog. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing fog. Snow.
Freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 45 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-070315-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
300 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S winds 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE...S winds 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-070315-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
300 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Blowing snow. Heavy freezing
spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Freezing
spray. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-070315-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
300 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.WED...S winds 15 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-070315-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
300 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

.TODAY...SW winds 10 kt becoming SE. 
.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Nov 22

550 
FZAK51 PAFG 062335
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
235 PM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-071530-
235 PM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A weather front along the Northwest Arctic Coast will slowly 
slide east and weaken through this afternoon. Another strong 
storm system will move north to the Southern Chukchi Sea by Mon 
night, with the main low at 976 mb in the Southern Chukchi Sea by
Tue morning.

$$

PKZ225-071530-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
235 PM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing fog. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain. Freezing
spray. 
.TUE...S winds 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow and rain. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...S winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.  

$$

PKZ230-071530-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
235 PM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 35 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 12 ft subsiding
to 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ235-071530-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
235 PM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON...SE winds 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE...S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...S winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.  

$$

PKZ240-071530-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
235 PM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...SE winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...S winds 25 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 25 kt. 
.WED...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-071530-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
235 PM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

.TONIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.MON...E winds 20 kt. 
.MON NIGHT...E winds 25 kt. 
.TUE...SW winds 20 kt. 
.TUE NIGHT...S winds 20 kt. 
.WED...SE winds 20 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...SE winds 15 kt. 
.THU...W winds 15 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 15 kt.  

$$

Nov 22

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
425 PM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska is undergoing as pattern change this weekend
where the Interior will have decreasing clouds, temperatures and
snow tapering off, while the West Coast sees warmer conditions
with high winds and possible blizzard conditions and high surf.

A strong low in the northern Gulf of AK will move southeast
through Sat. Light snow along the Alaska Range with blowing snow
through passes will continue tonight and taper off Sat.

Strong high pressure building over the Interior Sat will build
over the ALCAN Border on Sun. This will causing clearing over the
Interior Sat into Sun, with temperatures falling to 10 to 20 below
by Sun.

A strong storm moving north over Eastern Russia Sat and Sun will
bring southerly gale force winds, high surf, and possible blizzard
conditions to the Bering Strait and Northwest Alaska Sat night
and Sun. This could bring snow and blowing snow along with
elevated surf to the Southern Seward Peninsula Sat night and Sun.

A second strong storm will move north over the Eastern Bering Sea
on Mon and over the Chukchi Sea on Tue. This will bring another
southerly gales, high surf, and possible blizzard conditions to
the West Coast from the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait Mon into
Tue, and the area from the Bering Strait to Point Hope Mon PM
into Tue. This could bring heavy snow with possible rain and
freezing rain to the Western Interior Mon into Tue. This will also
bring strong south winds to the Alaska Range Mon into Tue.

Aloft...
A deep long wave trough over Mainland AK will move east through
the weekend as a strong long wave ridge over the Bering Sea will
build east over Mainland AK over the weekend. A series of short
wave troughs moving north along the west side of this ridge over
the weekend will push several surface lows north over the weekend
into early next week. This will bring warmer, windier and stormier
conditions to the West Coast this weekend into early next week.

Surface...
A 990 mb low in the NE Gulf of AK will move southeast this
weekend. A strong surface high will build over Interior AK Sat and
Sun.

A 1013 mb low near Deering will move inland and weaken
tonight. Snow showers with this over NW AK will diminish tonight.

A 1012 mb low over the Lower Yukon Valley will move southeast
tonight. Snow with this over the SW Interior will taper off this
evening.

A strong weather front in the Western Bering Sea will move to
along the Dateline by 4am Sun and to Utqiagvik to the Bering
Strait by 4pm Sun.

A strong storm will move north over the Eastern Bering Sea on Mon
and over the Southern CHukchi Sea on Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show very similar
solutions aloft through 4am Mon. From Mon on see differences in
short wave strength and timing that increase through the week,
with large differences by the end of next week. Models do agree on
a long wave ridge persisting over Eastern Alaska by the end of
next week. Will use a blend of models for solutions aloft through
4am Mon, then a blend of the NAM and GFS through 4pm Mon as the
ECMWF is the outlier moving the low aloft in the Bering Sea to the
north faster than the other models starting on Mon.

With precipitation, models in fair agreement through Sun, then
the ECMWF bring precip north more quickly than the NAm and GFS on
Sun night and Mon. Given preference for the NAM and GFS aloft,
will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for precip. Looks like precip
will start as snow and then mix with rain from the Bering Strait
south Sat night and Sun, but should remain all snow north of the
Bering Strait with a chance of rain or freezing rain south of
Point Hope Sun.

At the surface at 15Z, models all verified 4 mb too weak on the
low in the Northern Gulf of AK and 2 mb too weak on the low over
the YK Delta. Will bump up winds several kt today over SW AK, and
bump up north winds 5 kt through AK Range Passes through tonight
and to account for those differences. Given preferences aloft for
the NAM and GFS, will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for
surface features and winds through Mon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
High surf expected from the Bering Strait to Point Hope Sat night
and Sun.
High surf possible from the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait to
Mon and Mon night.

&&

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ201.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207>209.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-220-225-230.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-225.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&