Gale Warning 121, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
425 PM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Northern Alaska is undergoing as pattern change this weekend
where the Interior will have decreasing clouds, temperatures and
snow tapering off, while the West Coast sees warmer conditions
with high winds and possible blizzard conditions and high surf.

A strong low in the northern Gulf of AK will move southeast
through Sat. Light snow along the Alaska Range with blowing snow
through passes will continue tonight and taper off Sat.

Strong high pressure building over the Interior Sat will build
over the ALCAN Border on Sun. This will causing clearing over the
Interior Sat into Sun, with temperatures falling to 10 to 20 below
by Sun.

A strong storm moving north over Eastern Russia Sat and Sun will
bring southerly gale force winds, high surf, and possible blizzard
conditions to the Bering Strait and Northwest Alaska Sat night
and Sun. This could bring snow and blowing snow along with
elevated surf to the Southern Seward Peninsula Sat night and Sun.

A second strong storm will move north over the Eastern Bering Sea
on Mon and over the Chukchi Sea on Tue. This will bring another
southerly gales, high surf, and possible blizzard conditions to
the West Coast from the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait Mon into
Tue, and the area from the Bering Strait to Point Hope Mon PM
into Tue. This could bring heavy snow with possible rain and
freezing rain to the Western Interior Mon into Tue. This will also
bring strong south winds to the Alaska Range Mon into Tue.

Aloft...
A deep long wave trough over Mainland AK will move east through
the weekend as a strong long wave ridge over the Bering Sea will
build east over Mainland AK over the weekend. A series of short
wave troughs moving north along the west side of this ridge over
the weekend will push several surface lows north over the weekend
into early next week. This will bring warmer, windier and stormier
conditions to the West Coast this weekend into early next week.

Surface...
A 990 mb low in the NE Gulf of AK will move southeast this
weekend. A strong surface high will build over Interior AK Sat and
Sun.

A 1013 mb low near Deering will move inland and weaken
tonight. Snow showers with this over NW AK will diminish tonight.

A 1012 mb low over the Lower Yukon Valley will move southeast
tonight. Snow with this over the SW Interior will taper off this
evening.

A strong weather front in the Western Bering Sea will move to
along the Dateline by 4am Sun and to Utqiagvik to the Bering
Strait by 4pm Sun.

A strong storm will move north over the Eastern Bering Sea on Mon
and over the Southern CHukchi Sea on Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z. Models show very similar
solutions aloft through 4am Mon. From Mon on see differences in
short wave strength and timing that increase through the week,
with large differences by the end of next week. Models do agree on
a long wave ridge persisting over Eastern Alaska by the end of
next week. Will use a blend of models for solutions aloft through
4am Mon, then a blend of the NAM and GFS through 4pm Mon as the
ECMWF is the outlier moving the low aloft in the Bering Sea to the
north faster than the other models starting on Mon.

With precipitation, models in fair agreement through Sun, then
the ECMWF bring precip north more quickly than the NAm and GFS on
Sun night and Mon. Given preference for the NAM and GFS aloft,
will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for precip. Looks like precip
will start as snow and then mix with rain from the Bering Strait
south Sat night and Sun, but should remain all snow north of the
Bering Strait with a chance of rain or freezing rain south of
Point Hope Sun.

At the surface at 15Z, models all verified 4 mb too weak on the
low in the Northern Gulf of AK and 2 mb too weak on the low over
the YK Delta. Will bump up winds several kt today over SW AK, and
bump up north winds 5 kt through AK Range Passes through tonight
and to account for those differences. Given preferences aloft for
the NAM and GFS, will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for
surface features and winds through Mon.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
High surf expected from the Bering Strait to Point Hope Sat night
and Sun.
High surf possible from the Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait to
Mon and Mon night.

&&

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ201.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ211.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ215.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ207>209.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215-220-225-230.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-225.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ235.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
&&