Storm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

577 
FZAK69 PAFG 070006
OFFAFG

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
406 PM AKDT Thu Oct 6 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the US Arctic Waters

Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of
the combined wind wave and swell height. Individual waves may be
twice as high.

PKZ599-071215-
406 PM AKDT Thu Oct 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A strong 957 mb low is 175 NM NE of Wrangel Island with Storm 
Force winds in the Southwest Arctic and gales spreading E across 
the Arctic. The low will move 300 NM NE of Wrangel Island by Fri 
morning with gales spreading east as winds slowly diminish Fri. 
Saturday the low will be in the High Arctic with southwest winds 
diminishing across the area.

$$

PKZ500-071215-
Western US Arctic Offshore-
406 PM AKDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 50 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow after
midnight. 
.FRI...W winds 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Snow and rain in the morning. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...W winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TUE...W winds 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ505-071215-
Central US Arctic Offshore-
406 PM AKDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 45 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 21 ft.
Snow in the morning. Freezing spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.  

$$

PKZ510-071215-
Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
406 PM AKDT Thu Oct 6 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S winds 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...S winds 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SW winds 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.MON...SW winds 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...SW winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.  

$$

Oct 22

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 PM AKDT Wed Oct 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Strong storm moving to the West Coast tonight bringing
varying coastal flooding impacts to high surf and strong winds.
Warnings and Advisories have been issued for most of the West
Coast, go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks for details. Across the
Alaska Range southerly winds will increase tonight into Thursday.
The front associated withe the West Coast low will move eastward
across Western and into Central Interior by Friday brining rain
initially. Colder air behind the system will bring much cooler
temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing has moved over the Western Arctic
and West Coast from Point Lay to Anvik. A 505 dam low will deepen
over Wrangel Island to 501 dam by tomorrow morning.  A strong
shortwave associated with the low will move over the Western Gulf
of Anadyr and Northern Bering Sea near the Dateline. Another
trough will move across Russia and into the Western Alaskan coast
by Friday and slowly move across the Interior through weekend. At
the surface, the strong low over Kamchatka at 977 mb is expected
to move to Wrangel Island to be 958 mb by tomorrow morning. Leeside
troughing will develop north of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges with
a tight pressure gradient developing and will see increased
winds. The weather front associated with the low along the West
Coast will push across Western and Central.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Precipitation diminished across
Utqiagvik to Deadhorse earlier this morning but will briefly see a
break as winds will increase overnight particularly along the
Chukchi Sea coast as a strong low moves towards Wrangel Island.
There was some uncertainty with the strength especially for
Utqiagvik but expecting winds to reach up to 60 mph and upgraded
the high wind watch to the high wind warning. Thus expect strong
winds starting this afternoon across Point Lay with wind gusts up
to 70 mph and extending eastward to Utqiagvik with wind gusts
increasing tomorrow. The other concern is that with the system
will be warmer temperatures initially with rain mainly across the
Chukchi Sea coast but at higher elevations along the Brooks Range
will see snow. Expect the snow to be heavier and wet thus not
anticipating and blowing snow type issues. Will see this front
move across on Thursday from Utqiagvik extending precipitation to
Nuiqsut and Deadhorse by tomorrow morning. As this front moves
eastward across the North Slope there will also be increased winds
in Eastern Brooks Range as well later tomorrow into Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...Already starting to see winds
increase across the West Coast today as southerly winds push
across the area. Kept the high wind warnings as expect wind gust
of 60 to 65 mph along the coast from the Bering Strait northward.
Will also see precipitation mainly in form of rain extend from
Chukchi Sea coast southward to Yukon Delta as front moves across
the West Coast tonight into overnight and then push into the
Western Interior extending from Ambler southward to Kaltag and to
Mountain Village. By tomorrow afternoon the front will
precipitation will extend from Eastern Brooks Range to Ruby to
Holy Cross. This low will also produce some coastal surge and
Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories have been issued. The winds
will turn more from the west on Friday as they being to diminish.

Central and Eastern Interior.. Southerly winds will increase late
tonight across the Alaska Range with 25 to 40 mph gusting to 65
mph. Have included the Denali in with the wind advisory so it
includes the entire Alaska Range. Will see increase precipitation
across Central Interior tomorrow and start to move across into
Eastern Interior by Friday and Saturday. Higher elevations may see
some snow across the Middle Tanana Valley Saturday night into
Sunday as temperatures begin to fall but at this time it does not
appear to low enough for the valley areas. One of the main
concerns as the front moves across is Thursday night into Friday
is increased winds across higher elevations which may need
potentially need an advisory for high elevation passes
particularly Eagle Summit.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Currently have the coastal
flood warning and advisories primarily north of the Bering Strait
with exception of Golovin area. South of the Bering Strait with
Watches, and Advisories for the strong low moving to the area
tonight. Low will move northeast into the high Arctic with strong
winds across the Arctic through the weekend. One area of coastal
hazard concern will be the potential of next low pressure system
that may move into the area as early as next Monday.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Cooler temperatures expected
to remain in the extended across the area. One area of concern
looking into the extended withe the various ensemble members is
the potential of the next low pressure system that is expected to
move into the Bering Strait potentially next Monday which could
bring impacts to the Yukon Delta. There is still much uncertainty
with the timing and the low pressure track but something to keep
monitoring with the current situation on the West Coast.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ201.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ201.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ202.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ202.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ212-213.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ213.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ214.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ225.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ205-208.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ207.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ207.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ209.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ210.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ201.
     Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Gale Warning for PKZ215.
     Storm Warning for PKZ220.
     Storm Warning for PKZ225.
     Storm Warning for PKZ230.
     Gale Warning for PKZ235.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ240.
&&