Storm Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
341 AM AKDT Wed Oct 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Strong storm moving to the West Coast later today and
overnight. Warnings and Advisories have been issued for most of
the West Coast, go to www.weather.gov/fairbanks for details. Weak
low pressure over the mainland with a mix of clouds. Temperatures
warmer today then cooling.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...05/00Z solutions show good run to run continuity, and
they continue to come together. Solutions have been almost spot
on with position and strength the last couple runs. GFS continues
to be more consistent than other solutions so we will continue to
lean on it as the primary guidance through the midrange. Only
making minor adjustments again today as we tweak the forecast to
capture the higher winds and areas that will get heavier
precipitation.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the Yukon Territory extends
north over the Eastern Arctic, with another axis extending over
Chicken to Cape Newenham, then southwest over Adak. Troughing
has moved over the Western Arctic and West Coast from Point Lay
to Anvik, while a low that was just south of Sand Point in now
600 nm south of Kodiak Island. A 505 dam low that was over the
Sea of Ohkotsk has moved to 100 nm northeast of Magadan.
This afternoon the trough that was over the West Coast will move
rapidly in near zonal flow to the Eastern Arctic and AlCan Border
north of the Porcupine River. Ridging persists from the Upper
Tanana Valley to Denali to Nunivak Island to Adak, and is also
pushing northwest to the Dateline. The low near Magadan will move
to 300 nm northeast of Magadan at 502 dam. A strong shortwave
associated with the low will move over the Western Gulf of Anadyr
and Northern Bering Sea near the Dateline. Thursday morning riding
will lie from Eagle to Bethel to Atka, and will also be pushing
northwest across the Arctic. A low will develop over the Gulf of
Alaska and move over the Kenai Peninsula before dissipating. The
low near Magadan will move rapidly northeast to be just south of
Wrangel Island at 503 dam. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm is sliding
north with temperatures warming to just above 0C for most of the
area today. Cooler temperatures will push back over the state
as the low moves into the Arctic the remainder of the week.

Surface...Benign pressure pattern across the state with weak low
pressure across the Arctic, weak high pressure north of the Alaska
Range extending southwest across the Pribilofs, and low pressure
to the south of the Alaska Range with a 991 mb low 250 nm south of
Kodiak Island. Strong, stacked, low near Magadan has moved to
Northern Kamchatka at 977 mb, with several other low centers.
The associated weather front is moving into the Western Bering
Sea. This afternoon weak high pressure will extend from the Alaska
Range north across the Arctic, and southwest across Nikolski. Low
pressure will remain to the south with a 1002 mb low developing
and moving into the Gulf of Alaska. The low near Kamchatka will
move into Chukotka as it strengthens to 968 mb, while a second low
develops along the associated front and moves to the Northeast
Gulf of Anadyr as the front moves to the Dateline. By Thursday
morning the weak high pressure will be over the Eastern Arctic and
Beaufort Sea extending south over the AlCan Border, and west to
the Yukon River. High pressure will be pushing northwest into the
Copper River Basin, and high pressure will also be holding on
over the southwest mainland. Very strong stacked low in Chukotka
will move to Wrangel Island at 961 mb with leeside troughing
developing north of the Alaska and Brooks Ranges with a tight
pressure gradient developing. The associated weather front will
move to the West Coast and start pushing inland to the Middle
Yukon Valley, and east into the Central Arctic.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A mix of clouds today with some
isolated showers, mainly east of Nuiqsut today. Winds mainly
offshore or along shore through the day at 5 to 15 mph with
lighter winds inland. As the strong low moves to the Arctic winds
will increase on the northwest coast late this evening. See High
Wind Warning for details. High temperatures today in the 30s, and
Thursday in the 40s. Low temperatures tonight in the mid 20s to
lower 30s.

West Coast and Western Interior...Mix of clouds today, then
increasing clouds by late afternoon with showers moving to the
coast in the evening. Winds variable to 10 mph becoming east to
southeast and increasing through the afternoon and evening. See
the High Wind Warnings for details. The strong low will also
produce some coastal surge and Coastal Flood Warnings and
Advisories have been issued. Weak high pressure over the coast
will move inland with south winds increasing on St Lawrence Island
this morning and strong winds spreading to the coast this
afternoon and evening. Strongest winds will extend from St
Lawrence Island to Point Hope, mainly offshore, but winds gusting
to 65 mph can be expected north of Kivalina. The winds will turn
more from the west Friday as they diminish. High temperatures
today and Thursday in the 40s to lower 50s. Low temperatures
tonight will be in the 30s to around 40.

Central and Eastern Interior...A mix of clouds today then
increasing clouds overnight with showers moving across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds southeast to southwest at 5
to 15 mph, except for the Alaska Range passes where winds will be
increasing to south at 25 to 40 mph gusting to 65 mph. High
temperatures today and Thursday will range from the 30s north of
the Yukon River to around 50 in the Upper Tanana Valley. Low
temperatures tonight in the 20s to mid 30s.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...See current Warnings,
Watches, and Advisories for the strong low moving to the area
today and tonight. Low will move northeast into the high Arctic
with strong winds across the Arctic through the weekend.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Decaying front will move
across the state spreading showers to much of the Interior. A
Strong push of cold air into the state coming around the low that
is moving into the Arctic will bring increased chance of that
precipitation being snow starting Sunday night. Expect some
clearing on Monday, then increasing clouds Tuesday with increasing
chance of showers. Temperatures cooler.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AK...High Wind Warning for AKZ201.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ201-207-209.
     Coastal Flood Warning for AKZ202.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ202.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ211.
     High Surf Advisory for AKZ212-213.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ213.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ205-208.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ207.
     Coastal Flood Advisory for AKZ210.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ226.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ210.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-225.

&&

SDB OCT 22