Storm Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

762 
FZAK51 PAFG 252236
CWFNSB

Coastal Waters Forecast for Arctic Alaska
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
136 PM AKST Tue Jan 25 2022

Arctic Alaska Coastal Waters out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest one-
third of the combined wind-wave and swell height.

PKZ298-261515-
136 PM AKST Tue Jan 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 987 mb low 200 nm NW of Utqiagvik and a 987 mb low just N of 
MacKenzie Bay will slide NE with strong W to E flow developing 
across the Arctic tonight as high pressure builds E across the 
Arctic Plain. Strong W to E flow will continue into the weekend 
as a 1037 mb high builds in the Arctic Plain.

$$

PKZ225-261515-
Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort-
136 PM AKST Tue Jan 25 2022

.TONIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED...SW winds 15 kt. 
.WED NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.THU...SW winds 5 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 10 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...S winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...S winds 5 kt. 
.SUN...N winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ230-261515-
Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin-
136 PM AKST Tue Jan 25 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...SW winds 15 kt. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...SW winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ235-261515-
Point Franklin to Cape Halkett-
136 PM AKST Tue Jan 25 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...W winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 10 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 10 kt.  

$$

PKZ240-261515-
Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island-
136 PM AKST Tue Jan 25 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. 
.THU NIGHT...SW winds 25 kt. 
.FRI...SW winds 20 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SAT...SW winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

PKZ245-261515-
Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point-
136 PM AKST Tue Jan 25 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W winds 45 kt decreasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby
1 NM or less. 
.WED...W winds 30 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.WED NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU...W winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.THU NIGHT...W winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 NM or less. 
.FRI...W winds 25 kt. 
.FRI NIGHT...W winds 20 kt. 
.SAT...W winds 15 kt. 
.SUN...W winds 15 kt.  

$$

Jan 22

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
427 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong chinook is pushing across the Interior and Alaska Range
with heavy snowfall over parts of the West Coast. Temps have
soared into the 30s and 40s across the southeast Interior with the
high temp thus far a rather "blistering" 48 degrees at Nenana,
with 40s from Fairbanks south. A strong cold front will shift east
tonight and tomorrow with snow squalls possible over the North
Slope and Interior as this occurs, with blowing and drifting snow
expected along the entirety of the Arctic Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 490 upper level trough centered north of Wrangel
Island, with deep southerly flow over the Mainland extending south
into the Gulf of Alaska. On satellite, the moisture tap is
impressive, and looks to be originating from south of 20 degrees N
latitude, a truly impressive southerly latitude. The surface low
is currently located around Golovin according to the local
observation data in eastern Norton Sound, with a pressure at
approximately 983 mb. Near hurricane force south winds continue
through the AK Range, and temps have even soared above freezing
north of the Brooks Range along the Sag River and at Toolik Field
Station.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement as the
strong low over eastern Norton sound now shifts north of the
Arctic Coast tomorrow. The GFS was an outlier yesterday but looks
much better and all models are now showing high end gales for the
eastern Arctic and near 30 knot winds everywhere else. The
Canadian and NAM hi-res models were favored for this forecast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm chinook temps have invaded the southeast Interior with temps
in the 30s and even 40s, along with continued south winds through
the Alaska Range of 45-65 mph. Winds gradually weaken this evening
and tonight, with a very strong arctic cold front moving through
the Interior tonight and early Tuesday, resulting in rapidly
dropping temps and periodic snow squalls and snow showers.
Accumulations will not be significant, but snow rates in squalls
may be heavy at times. Expect best snow accumulations over higher
terrain and the Eastern AK Range where 2-4" is possible before
snow ends tomorrow evening. High pressure and cold temps settle
back in Wednesday with snow moving back into the far southeast
Interior and Eastern AK Range Wed and Thu.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A warm storm is bringing snow and even some mixed rain into the
West Coast, with the surface low currently over Eastern Norton
Sound. The rain line has shifted as far north as Koyuk, with snow
showers over the West Coast where winds have switched to the
northwest. Expect an additional 2-4" around Norton Sound north to
Kotzebue Sound, with 4-8" over the upper Noatak Valley and Western
Brooks Range. Expect some local areas of blowing and drifting snow
as the low moves inland and west winds increase on the back side
of the low. Snow will end as the low exits to the northeast on
Tuesday, with much colder air settling back in and temps crashing
through midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
East winds over the Arctic and south winds through the Brooks
Range are already waning as we speak. A powerful arctic cold front
will shift east across the region beginning this evening and reach
the eastern Arctic tomorrow morning. Expect widespread blowing and
drifting snow, with whiteout blizzard conditions expected east of
Prudhoe Bay Tue afternoon through Tue night, and even into early
Wednesday. West winds will range from 25-40 mph from Point Barrow
to Prudhoe Bay, with gusts into the 60 mph range from Point
Thompson to Barter Island, where the worst blizzard conditions
will be located. Expect widespread 1-2" of snowfall as the front
shifts east. West winds gradually fall off through Wednesday with
cold high pressure building in Wednesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Northerly flow aloft with a stout blocking high over the Bering
Sea for the extended pretty much means one thing, cold and dry
for pretty much the entire Mainland. There will still be some
ongoing snow over the southeast Interior through Saturday, the
extended looks rather quiet and dry and cold.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 22