Gale Warning 17, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
427 PM AKST Mon Jan 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong chinook is pushing across the Interior and Alaska Range
with heavy snowfall over parts of the West Coast. Temps have
soared into the 30s and 40s across the southeast Interior with the
high temp thus far a rather "blistering" 48 degrees at Nenana,
with 40s from Fairbanks south. A strong cold front will shift east
tonight and tomorrow with snow squalls possible over the North
Slope and Interior as this occurs, with blowing and drifting snow
expected along the entirety of the Arctic Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 490 upper level trough centered north of Wrangel
Island, with deep southerly flow over the Mainland extending south
into the Gulf of Alaska. On satellite, the moisture tap is
impressive, and looks to be originating from south of 20 degrees N
latitude, a truly impressive southerly latitude. The surface low
is currently located around Golovin according to the local
observation data in eastern Norton Sound, with a pressure at
approximately 983 mb. Near hurricane force south winds continue
through the AK Range, and temps have even soared above freezing
north of the Brooks Range along the Sag River and at Toolik Field
Station.

Model Discussion...
The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement as the
strong low over eastern Norton sound now shifts north of the
Arctic Coast tomorrow. The GFS was an outlier yesterday but looks
much better and all models are now showing high end gales for the
eastern Arctic and near 30 knot winds everywhere else. The
Canadian and NAM hi-res models were favored for this forecast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Warm chinook temps have invaded the southeast Interior with temps
in the 30s and even 40s, along with continued south winds through
the Alaska Range of 45-65 mph. Winds gradually weaken this evening
and tonight, with a very strong arctic cold front moving through
the Interior tonight and early Tuesday, resulting in rapidly
dropping temps and periodic snow squalls and snow showers.
Accumulations will not be significant, but snow rates in squalls
may be heavy at times. Expect best snow accumulations over higher
terrain and the Eastern AK Range where 2-4" is possible before
snow ends tomorrow evening. High pressure and cold temps settle
back in Wednesday with snow moving back into the far southeast
Interior and Eastern AK Range Wed and Thu.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A warm storm is bringing snow and even some mixed rain into the
West Coast, with the surface low currently over Eastern Norton
Sound. The rain line has shifted as far north as Koyuk, with snow
showers over the West Coast where winds have switched to the
northwest. Expect an additional 2-4" around Norton Sound north to
Kotzebue Sound, with 4-8" over the upper Noatak Valley and Western
Brooks Range. Expect some local areas of blowing and drifting snow
as the low moves inland and west winds increase on the back side
of the low. Snow will end as the low exits to the northeast on
Tuesday, with much colder air settling back in and temps crashing
through midweek.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
East winds over the Arctic and south winds through the Brooks
Range are already waning as we speak. A powerful arctic cold front
will shift east across the region beginning this evening and reach
the eastern Arctic tomorrow morning. Expect widespread blowing and
drifting snow, with whiteout blizzard conditions expected east of
Prudhoe Bay Tue afternoon through Tue night, and even into early
Wednesday. West winds will range from 25-40 mph from Point Barrow
to Prudhoe Bay, with gusts into the 60 mph range from Point
Thompson to Barter Island, where the worst blizzard conditions
will be located. Expect widespread 1-2" of snowfall as the front
shifts east. West winds gradually fall off through Wednesday with
cold high pressure building in Wednesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Northerly flow aloft with a stout blocking high over the Bering
Sea for the extended pretty much means one thing, cold and dry
for pretty much the entire Mainland. There will still be some
ongoing snow over the southeast Interior through Saturday, the
extended looks rather quiet and dry and cold.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ223.

High Wind Warning for AKZ225-AKZ226.

Winter Storm Warning for AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218.

Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

AHSENMACHER JAN 22