High Wind Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
650 AM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet and warm southerly flow pattern is now pushing over Northern
Alaska and will persist into early next week. Several storm
systems will move north over Alaska and bring chinook conditions
and possible freezing rain to the southeast Interior and areas
along the Alaska Range, significant snow to the Western and north
Central Interior, and West Coast, and near Blizzard conditions to
the Arctic Coast.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over the Bering
Sea and NW Pacific, and a strong ridge over the Eastern Pacific
and Western Canada and Eastern Alaska. This has set up a southerly
flow pattern bring moisture from the subtropics north towards
Alaska. Most of the moisture will be wrung out over the south side
of the Alaska Range, but there will still be ample snow over the
West Coast and Western Interior through Tue. Flow will turn more
southwesterly Tue and west on Wed pushing moisture into the
Eastern Interior by mid week.

Surface...
A 977 mb low 50 NM west of Gambell will move to the Gulf of
Anadyr as a 986 mb low by 3am Sun, and then move to near Wrangel
Island as a 1002 mb low by 3am Mon. A weather front stretching
from this low to the Eastern North Slope will move north of the
Arctic Coast of Alaska tonight. This is cause strong east winds
and near blizzard conditions over the Arctic Coast hat will taper
off this evening as the front moves offshore and winds decrease.

A strong low in the northwest Gulf of Alaska will move north over
the Western Interior of Alaska today and remain there into Sun.
An occluded front associate with this stretches north over the SW
Interior to the NE INterior which will persist into tonight and
then weaken on Sun. This will bring another 2-4 inches of snow to
the Western and north central Interior through Sun. Chinook winds
across the Alaska Range will decrease today and tonight.

A third strong low will move to the AKPen on Sun, and into the
Western Interior on Mon. This will bring another round of strong
winds over the Alaska Range Sun night and Mon, with heavy snow and
possible freezing rain developing over the Western Interior and
West Coast on Sunday night and continue through Tuesday. Between 6
and 12 inches of snow is possible in those areas between Sunday
night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models initialize well aloft at 00Z. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 3pm Sun, then slight differences aloft
showing up Sun night and Mon. At 850 MB all models showing above
freezing temperatures SE of McGrath to Fairbanks to Circle today,
and again Sun PM and Mon. Prefer a blend of the NAM/GFS and ECMF
aloft through Mon.

With precipitation, models show similar areal coverage and amounts
through Mon, with larger differences showing up Mon night and Tue.
Will use blend of the GFS/ECMF and NAM precipitation for areal
coverage and amounts through Mon.

At the surface, models verify well at 06Z. The NAM and GFS weaken
the low in the Northern Bering Sea as it moves west today and
tonight much more than the ECMF and Canadian models. Since this
feature is vertically stacked expect it to weaken slowly and thus
prefer the ECMF and Canadian solutions with this feature through
tonight which keeps stronger winds over the Arctic Coast. Models
show similar surface solutions on Sun, with the NAM moving the
northward moving low to the east faster than the GFS and ECMF on
Mon. Favor as blend of the ECMF and Canadian models at the surface
today and tonight, then a blend of the GFS/ECMF and Canadian at
the surface for Sun into Mon.

Bottom line for models is that we will use a blend of models for
features aloft and for precipitation through Mon. Will use a
blend of the ECMF and Canadian for surface features, winds and
temperatures through tonight, the a blend of the GFS/Canadian and
ECMF for Sun into Mon. Strong east winds along the Arctic Coast
will continue longer into this afternoon/evening per the Canadian
and ECMF winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory for AKZ224.

High Wind Warning for AKZ226.

Blizzard Warning for AKZ201-AKZ204.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ227.

Gale Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB JAN 22