Gale Warning 9, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
329 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Nuisance wind chill issues along the West Coast and the Beaufort
Sea Coast continue this afternoon, but expected to improve going
into tomorrow as winds subside in these areas. Light snow across
the Interior expected to subside as well tonight as the focal
point of snow shifts to the West Coast and areas of the eastern
Interior through tomorrow. Easterly winds will increase overnight
across higher terrain of the Interior and is expected to cause
blowing snow issues along highway summits tomorrow through Friday
night. A change in weather pattern beginning on Friday will bring
warmer conditions and gusty winds through Alaska Range passes for
the weekend across northern Alaska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An Arctic trough draped across the North Slope southwest into
Norton Sound continues to cause light snow across the Interior
this afternoon. This trough is expected to become a closed low
over the Yukon Delta region by tonight, resulting in the
dissipation of the Arctic boundary across the Interior, with light
snow continuing for the Western Interior. A shortwave trough
associated with this feature will move east across the Alaska
Range and into the eastern Interior tonight, bringing light snow
to that region through tomorrow morning. After that trough exits
into Canada, the pattern will change quickly Thursday into Friday
as ridging builds across the Interior and the closed low migrates
westward into the Bering Sea by Friday morning. This change in
pattern will result in a chinook pattern across the Alaska and
Brooks Ranges, with snowy conditions out west through the weekend.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Light snow continues from Lake Minchumina northeast to Fort Yukon
this afternoon. This line of snow is expected to dissipate this
evening. A front pushing across the eastern Alaska Range this
afternoon will bring snow to the eastern Interior with
1 to 2 inches of accumulations through tonight. Otherwise the
Interior is expected to be mostly snow free going into the
weekend. The pressure gradient across the Interior is expected to
strengthen tomorrow as a strong Pacific front moves into the Gulf
of Alaska. The result will be winds gusting to 45 mph across
highway summits of the Interior from tomorrow through Friday
night. Looking towards the weekend, southerly flow developing
tomorrow night will cause temperatures to warm into the 20s and
30s by Saturday. Southerly gap winds with gusts 50 to 60 mph
expected to develop by Friday night and last into Saturday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Winds chills hovering around -50F due to west winds 15-20 mph
continue this afternoon along the Beaufort Sea Coast, but
conditions are expected to improve through this evening. Surface
high pressure will build across the Arctic Plains, with easterly
winds increasing across the Arctic Coast on Friday. A Winter Storm
Watch is in effect for the Western Arctic Coast for the potential
for blizzard conditions Friday into Saturday, with the rest of
the Arctic Coast having potential for blowing snow issues during
this time frame as well. Southerly gap winds through the eastern
Brooks Range passes expected to develop on Friday, with gusts to
35 mph possible into Saturday morning. As a result of the
southerly flow, a warming trend to above normal is expected going
through the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Currently, wind chills continue to be an issue for spots along the
West Coast, but are expected to improve through tonight as
temperatures warm and winds weaken. Northerly winds through the
Bering Strait will continue through Friday before a surface low
tracks into the eastern Bering Sea by Saturday morning. The
initial front from this feature is expected to bring snow to the
Yukon Delta and the Lower Yukon Valley region by tomorrow night,
with more widespread snow associated with the occlusion of this
front on Saturday. There remains uncertainty with the track of
this low, but snowfall amounts in the 2-6 inch range from Friday
morning through Friday night remains the current outlook.
Precipitation type may become an issue going through the weekend
as temperatures warm into the low to mid 30s, but uncertainty
remains on where the warm sector will set up across the area as
the surface low tracks northward Saturday into Sunday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
A chinook warming pattern out east and heavy snow over the
Western Interior and parts of the West Coast will firmly be in
place by the middle of the weekend. Model guidance indicates this
pattern persisting into early next week before a deep trough cuts
off the chinook pattern and snowy conditions by the middle of the
week, resulting in a cooling trend across northern Alaska.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207-AKZ212-AKZ213.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ201.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

&&

JAN 22