Gale Warning 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
304 AM AKST Fri Jan 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Relatively quiet weather continues across the
forecast area. Strong gusty winds on the Eastern Arctic Coast with
blowing snow this morning, but expect improving conditions later
this afternoon. Winds will be increasing on the hills in the
Interior with blowing snow developing on the summits along the
Steese, Elliott, and Dalton Highways tonight impacting travel
through those areas. Temperatures falling through the day and
overnight in most areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Models...The 07/00Z solutions continue the good run to run
continuity that we have seen over past couple weeks, and are in
good agreement today through the midrange. Not a very active
pattern, so will again be using a general blend of the solutions
for the short term as differences are minor across the board.
Temperatures will continue to be a bit tricky as any wind or
clouds can make temperatures much warmer, and no diurnal trend
adds to the difficulty in accurate temperature forecasts, even in
the very short term. Cold air advection will keep temperatures
down through Sunday morning, then warming as warmer air surges
north across to the Brooks Range to start the week.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 555 dam high is 200 nm south of Wrangel
Island with the axis extending southeast over the Lower Yukon
Delta, King Salmon, and Kodiak Island. The low that was over the
Canadian Archipelago has moved over Nunavut and the associated
trough has moved south over the Copper River Basin. A couple more
shortwaves are caught in the flow diving south with one over the
Brooks Range, and another approaching the Arctic Coast. Troughing
remains south of the Aleutians. By Saturday morning the high will
be 200 nm southwest of Wrangel Island with the ridge axis
extending southeast over the Gulf of Anadyr and Bristol Bay the
southeast. Low will remain over Nunavut with trough extending
southwest to a 510 dam low that will develop over the Copper
River Basin overnight. At 850 hpa...-10C isotherm lies from Point
Hope to Minchumina, then south, and the -20C isotherm lies from
Point Lay to Fort Yukon to Northway. Cold air will push southwest
as the -10C isotherm will be south and west of the forecast area
by Saturday morning, and the -20C isotherm will lie from Cape
Lisburne to Buckland to McGrath, then south of the Alaska Range.
Pools of colder air will develop north of the Alaska and Brooks
Ranges with temperatures to -35C by Saturday afternoon.

Surface...A 1038 mb high is 300 nm north of Wrangel Island with
high pressure extending southeast across the northwest coast to a
1033 mb high near Umiat, then Southeast to a 1026 mb high near
the Top of the World Highway crossing. A weak front is moving
south near the Eastern Arctic Coast, while another front that
moved through the area yesterday is moving across the Alaska Range
as it continues to weaken. This afternoon no real change in the
overall pattern with 1040 mb high 300 nm north of Wrangel Island,
a 1034 mb high near Umiat, a 1029 mb high in the Upper Yukon
Flats, and a 1025 mb high near Dawson YT. Weather front is near
the Eastern Arctic Coast and will move to the Brooks Range as it
weakens and gets pulled to the east. A 973 mb low will be south of
Nikolski as low pressure persists south of the Aleutians. By
Saturday afternoon the high in the Arctic will be 200 nm northwest
of Wainwright at 1040 mb, with high pressure extending southeast
to a 1040 mb high in the Eastern Brooks Range, then southeast to a
1040 mb high in the southeast Yukon Territory. A inverted trough
of low will along the West Coast, and another will lie from King
Salmon north to the Alaska Range, then along the north slopes of
the Alaska Range.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Weather front on the Eastern
Arctic Coast is bringing some snow, wind, and blowing snow to
areas mainly east of Deadhorse this morning. Conditions will
slowly improve by late in the day with some clearing skies
overnight. The remainder of the area will see clouds at times, but
will be generally partly cloudy through Saturday. Winds from
Utqiagvik west will be northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph, while
winds east of Utqiagvik will be west to northwest at 15 to 30 mph
with the strongest winds from Point Thomson east gusting to around
40 mph. High temperatures will be single digits above and below
today, and have already occurred for most areas as temperatures
will be falling through the day. Low temperatures tonight will
range from 10 below to 30 below with the coldest temperatures in
the plains.

West Coast and Western Interior...Quiet and generally clear
through Saturday. Winds variable to 10 mph. Highs today along the
coast generally in the single digits below, while inland they will
be 10 to 20 below. Lows tonight in the single digits below along
the coast to near 35 below inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...A few clouds lingering in the
southeast Interior, otherwise partly cloudy to clear. Winds in the
valleys generally light and variable, while winds on the hills
will become gusty from the northeast this evening with blowing
snow developing on the summits and visibility reduced to less than
one half mile at times making travel difficult. The strong winds
on the hills will continue into Monday before diminishing. Highs
today will range from around 10 below to 35 below. Lows tonight in
the 20s to 40s below. Drainage winds will impact temperatures
with even light winds keeping some areas warmer.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Broad area of low pressure
centered near the Gulf of Alaska will extend north over the
Interior. Inverted troughing will extend into the Interior and
north over the West Coast. A mix of clouds with chances of snow
south of the Brooks Range. The Arctic will generally be quiet with
a mix of clouds and clear skies. Warming trend through the week.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ203.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-
AKZ221-AKZ222.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ245.

&&

SDB JAN 22