Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

535 
WWAK41 PAFG 042323
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
223 PM AKST Tue Jan 4 2022

AKZ204-051900-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0001.220105T1200Z-220107T0300Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
223 PM AKST Tue Jan 4 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM
AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2
  inches are expected. West winds gusting to 50 mph with whiteout
  conditions expected. 

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...3 AM Wednesday to 6 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 50 mph will cause whiteout
  conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting snow will
  occur. The strongest winds and worst conditions are expected 
  during the day Wednesday. Conditions will slowly improve late on
  Thursday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ203-051900-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0002.220105T1200Z-220106T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
223 PM AKST Tue Jan 4 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO
6 AM AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. 
  Travel will be very difficult. Visibility of one half mile or 
  less at times is expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one
  inch are expected.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...West winds gusting to to 40 mph will cause
  areas of blowing and drifting snow with low visibility. The
  strongest winds and worst conditions are expected during the day
  Wednesday. Conditions will improve late Thursday morning as
  winds decrease. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

443 
WWAK41 PAFG 051402
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
502 AM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

AKZ204-060200-
/O.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220107T0300Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
502 AM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 
  inches are expected. West winds gusting to 50 mph with 
  whiteout conditions expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 50 mph will cause 
  whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting snow 
  will occur. The strongest winds and worst conditions are 
  expected during the day Wednesday. Conditions will slowly 
  improve late on Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ203-060200-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
502 AM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. 
  Travel will be very difficult. Visibility of one half mile or 
  less at times is expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 
  one inch are expected.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...West winds gusting to to 40 mph will 
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow with low visibility. 
  The strongest winds and worst conditions are expected during 
  the day Wednesday. Conditions will improve late Thursday 
  morning as winds decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

417 
WWAK41 PAFG 051958
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1058 AM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

AKZ204-061600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220107T0900Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
1058 AM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST THURSDAY
NIGHT...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 
  inches are expected. West winds gusting to 50 mph with 
  whiteout conditions expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until midnight Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 50 mph will continue
  through Thursday. Visibility will fall to near zero in whiteout
  conditions this afternoon when falling snow begins, with the
  visibility remaining very low through Thursday. Large snow
  drifts will form. The lowest visibility and worst conditions are
  expected from late this afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
  Conditions will slowly improve late Thursday night as winds 
  slowly decrease. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ203-061500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
1058 AM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility expected. 
  Travel will be very difficult. Visibility of one half mile or 
  less at times is expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 
  one inch are expected.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...West winds gusting to to 40 mph will
  continue through Thursday morning. Visibility will fall to one 
  half mile or less this afternoon when falling snow begins, with 
  the visibility remaining low through early Thursday. Large snow 
  drifts will form. The lowest visibility and worst conditions are
  expected from late this afternoon through early Thursday 
  morning. Conditions will slowly improve Thursday as winds slowly
  decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

563 
WWAK41 PAFG 060003
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
303 PM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

AKZ204-061815-
/O.EXT.PAFG.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220107T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
303 PM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Travel will be very 
  difficult to impossible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 
  inches are expected. West winds gusting to 55 mph with 
  whiteout conditions expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting to 55 mph will continue
  through Thursday night. Visibility will fall to near zero in
  whiteout conditions this afternoon when falling snow begins,
  with the visibility remaining very low through Thursday. Large
  snow drifts will form. The lowest visibility and worst
  conditions are expected from late this afternoon through
  Thursday afternoon. Conditions will slowly improve early Friday 
  as winds slowly decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions, making travel extremely difficult. The latest road
conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

AKZ203-061500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
303 PM AKST Wed Jan 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with low visibility occuring. Travel
  will be very difficult. Visibility of one half mile or less at 
  times is expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Central Beaufort Sea Coast.

* WHEN...3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...West winds gusting to to 40 mph will
  continue through early Thursday morning. Visibility will be one
  half mile or less at times through early Thursday. Large snow 
  drifts will form. The lowest visibility and worst conditions are
  expected from late this afternoon through early Thursday 
  morning. Conditions will slowly improve Thursday as winds slowly
  decrease.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow and blowing snow means periods
of snow and blowing snow will cause travel difficulties. The
latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

108 
WWAK41 PAFG 061134
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 AM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

AKZ204-061245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220107T1500Z/
Eastern Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Kaktovik and Flaxman Island
234 AM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ203-061245-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-220106T1500Z/
Central Beaufort Sea Coast-
Including Nuiqsut, Prudhoe Bay, Alpine, Deadhorse, and Kuparuk
234 AM AKST Thu Jan 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
347 PM AKST Mon Jan 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold temperatures over Northern Alaska will persist this
week, with warming to near or above normal next week.

Strong and very cold high pressure over the North Slope and
Northern Interior, combined with strong low pressure in the Gulf
of Alaska, is causing north winds of 25 mph gusting to 40 mph
through channeled areas of the Interior and Alaska Range along
with very cold wind chills. The high will build south along the
ALCAN Border tonight and Tue, causing winds to shift to easterly
drainage winds across the Interior in places such as along the
Tanana and Yukon Rivers. Temperatures across the Interior and
North Slope range from -20 to -50 and will remain cold this week,
except for less cold conditions when clouds or winds occur.

An inverted trough is causing light snow over the Southeast
Interior today that will linger into tonight and keep temperatures
there less cold into tonight.

A weather system over NE Russia will move east north of the Arctic
Coast of Alaska on Wed. This will bring light snow and warmer
temperatures across the North Slope on Tue and Wed, and could
bring low visibility in blowing snow along with west winds of 30
to 40 mph to the Eastern Arctic Coast on Wed.

Aloft...
The Long wave pattern consists of an omega block with the
blocking high over the Eastern Bering Sea and a low over the Gulf
of Alaska and another low over the NW Pacific and Sea of Okhotsk.
This pattern morphs into a Rex Block with the blocking high
building over the Chukotsk Peninsula and Northern Alaska through
Tue and persist into Thu. The ridge will weaken over Eastern
Alaska Wed-Fri as a short wave now near the North Pole moves south
over NW Canada and Ern AK Wed PM-Fri, then pushes enough cold air
west to form a low aloft over SW Alaska over the weekend. This
serves to keep most over Northern Alaska cold and dry through the
weekend, but will bring clouds and light snow to the Eastern North
Slope Wed-Thu, and could bring clouds and flurries and slight
warming to Eastern Alaska Thu-Fri, and to SW AK on the weekend.
Could see south flow with clouds, precip and warmer temperatures
next week.

Surface...
A 1056 mb high over the Eastern North Slope of Alaska will move
inland tonight with a 1057 mb center over Dawson by 3am Tue, that
will weaken to 1052 mb by 3pm Wed. A ridge extending southwest
from this high to the Seward Pen will move north over the Southern
Chukchi Sea tonight and then persist there into Wed. Generally
clear and cold conditions are occuring under this feature. This
may also cause Altimeter Settings above 31.00 inches along the
ALCAN Border tonight through Tue.

A warm front west of Wrangel Island will move east to the Chukchi
Sea tonight, to Utqiagvik north on Tue, and to Demarcation Point
on early Wed, then east of the ALCAN Border Wed PM. expect a
chance of snow with the warm front along with warmer temperatures.
A trailing cold front moving to Wrangel Island tonight will move
to several 100 miles north of the Arctic Coast on Wed AM, and
then along the Arctic Coast by Wed PM before moving east Wed
night. This will bring 1-2 inches of snow to the Eastern North
Slope Wed. This will also bring west winds of 30 to 40 mph along
with low visibility in blowing snow to the eastern Arctic Coast on
Wed.

High pressure will build back over the Chukchi Sea and North Slope
Wed night and Thu causing winds to decrease Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z, models verify well aloft and show similar solutions
through Thu, with slight differences in timing of short waves
showing up Fri into the weekend.

With precipitation, models show same general trends of very light
precip through Thu, with the exception of the NAM showing more
precip over the Ern North Slope Wed night and Thu. All models
underplay precip now occuring over the SE INterior, but GFS bring
it a bit further West and keeps it going into tonight, which
appears to be what is happening based on current Sat pics. With
the precip over the Ern North Slope on Wed PM and Thu. favor the
light amounts shown by the GFs and ECMF.

At the surface at 18Z, models verify well over AK. The lows in
the southern Gulf of AK and near the New Siberian Islands are 3-4
mb deeper than models verify, but are far enough away from AK to
have little affect. Models show same pattern evolution as the high
over the Eastern North Slope builds south along the ALCAN Border
through Tue, then weakens slowly through Thu. This cause the tight
north to south gradient that now lies over the Southern Interior
and Alaska Range to become a more East to West Gradient Tue that
then persists into Wed and weakens on Thu. Models all show a warm
front/cold front pair that move east across the North Slope on Wed
that will bring snow to much of the Arctic, but will cause West
winds to increase to 20-30kt over the Eastern Arctic Wed PM. This
could cause blowing snow with low visibility over the Eastern
North Slope on Wed.

Bottom line for models is we favor a blend of the GFS and ECMF for
precip, clouds, temps, adding in precip in the SE Interior E of
Delta Junction through tonight. Temperatures will be primarily
wind and cloud dependent through Thu, with areas cloud free and
less than 3 mph having the coldest temps. For winds will use a
blend of the GFS and ECMF through Thu but bump up gusts 5 kt
through easterly drainage areas on Tue to reflect the cold
advection and katabatic nature of the winds.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ225-
AKZ227.

Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ226.

Wind Chill Warning for AKZ220-AKZ223-AKZ224.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ204.

Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

JB JAN 22