Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

198 
WWAK41 PAFC 052226
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
126 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

AKZ101-060300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
126 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulation 6 to 12 inches, 
  with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow, with snowfall rates of 1 to 3 
  inches per hour, is expected to become lighter in intensity 
  later this morning. Light snow will continue across the 
  Anchorage Bowl through early to mid afternoon before 
  increasing in intensity by late afternoon. Areas of moderate 
  to heavy snow are then expected to linger through Saturday 
  evening, especially over the eastern half of Anchorage, the 
  Upper Hillside, and along the Glenn Highway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ111-060300-
/O.EXB.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
126 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulation 4 to 8 inches, with locally
  higher amounts.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slippery roads 
  and reduced visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of moderate to heavy snow has
  developed from Big Lake to Wasilla. Periods of moderate to heavy
  snow will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. The
  heaviest bands of snow are expected to shift east over Palmer,
  Butte, and Sutton by Sunday evening. The snow is then expected 
  to taper off by early Sunday morning.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-060300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1800Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
126 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
SUNDAY NORTH OF GAKONA...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches. Winds gusting 
  as high as 40 mph Saturday night from Isabel Pass to Paxson.

* WHERE...Copper River Basin north of Gakona.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slippery roads 
  and reduced visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall will begin this morning and 
  accumulation rates will gradually increase during the day near 
  Paxson and Chistochina north. Snow will peak in intensity 
  during the late afternoon. Winds will increase as snow begins 
  to taper off after midnight Saturday into Sunday, which could 
  cause areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow, 
  especially through Isabel Pass. If you must travel, plan extra 
  time and carry an emergency kit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

444 
WWAK41 PAFC 052234 CCA
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
134 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

AKZ101-060300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
134 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulation 6 to 12 inches, 
  with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced 
  visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow, with snowfall rates of 1 to 3 
  inches per hour, is expected to become lighter in intensity 
  later this morning. Light snow will continue across the 
  Anchorage Bowl through early to mid afternoon before 
  increasing in intensity by late afternoon. Areas of moderate 
  to heavy snow are then expected to linger through Saturday 
  evening, especially over the eastern half of Anchorage, the 
  Upper Hillside, and along the Glenn Highway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ111-060300-
/O.COR.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
134 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulation 4 to 8 inches, with locally
  higher amounts.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slippery roads 
  and reduced visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of moderate to heavy snow has
  developed from Big Lake to Wasilla. Periods of moderate to heavy
  snow will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. The
  heaviest bands of snow are expected to shift east over Palmer,
  Butte, and Sutton by Saturday evening. The snow is then 
  expected to taper off by early Sunday morning.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-060300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1800Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
134 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
SUNDAY NORTH OF GAKONA...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 
  inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches. Winds gusting 
  as high as 40 mph Saturday night from Isabel Pass to Paxson.

* WHERE...Copper River Basin north of Gakona.

* WHEN...From 6 AM this morning to 9 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slippery roads 
  and reduced visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall will begin this morning and 
  accumulation rates will gradually increase during the day near 
  Paxson and Chistochina north. Snow will peak in intensity 
  during the late afternoon. Winds will increase as snow begins 
  to taper off after midnight Saturday into Sunday, which could 
  cause areas of reduced visibility due to blowing snow, 
  especially through Isabel Pass. If you must travel, plan extra 
  time and carry an emergency kit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

641 
WWAK41 PAFC 060124
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

AKZ101-061000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
424 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow occurring. Additional snow accumulations of 3
  to 6 inches in the Anchorage Bowl with 5 to 10 inches possible
  on the Hillside. Storm total snow of 12 to 24 inches expected.

* WHERE...Anchorage.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light snow will continue across the
  Anchorage Bowl through early to mid afternoon before increasing
  in intensity late afternoon. Areas of moderate to heavy snow 
  are then expected to linger through Saturday evening, especially
  over the eastern half of Anchorage, the Upper Hillside, and 
  along the Glenn Highway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous. If you must travel,
keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case
of an emergency. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ141-061430-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1800Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
424 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST
SUNDAY NORTH OF GAKONA...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches,
  with localized amounts up to 12 inches. Winds gusting as high as
  50 mph from Isabel Pass to Paxson.

* WHERE...Copper River Basin north of Gakona.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will peak in intensity during the late
  afternoon today. Winds will increase as snow begins to taper 
  off after midnight Saturday into Sunday, which could cause areas
  of reduced visibility due to blowing snow, especially through 
  Isabel Pass. If you must travel, plan extra time and carry an 
  emergency kit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ111-061000-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
424 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM AKST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Additional snow accumulation 2 to 6 
  inches, with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Matanuska Valley.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM AKST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult due to slippery roads 
  and reduced visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of moderate snow has developed from
  Big Lake to Wasilla. Periods of light to moderate snow will 
  continue through the afternoon and evening hours. The heaviest 
  bands of snow are expected to shift east over Palmer, Butte, and
  Sutton by Saturday evening. The snow is then expected to taper 
  off by early Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

157 
WWAK41 PAFC 061000
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
100 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

AKZ101-061100-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Anchorage-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, 
and Eklutna
100 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Snow is ending around the Anchorage area with no further 
accumulation expected.

$$

AKZ111-061100-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1000Z/
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
100 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Snow is ending around the Matanuska Valley with no further accumulation
expected.

$$

AKZ141-061800-
/O.CON.PAFC.WW.Y.0025.000000T0000Z-220306T1800Z/
Copper River Basin-
Including the cities of Glennallen, Eureka, McCarthy, Paxson, 
and Slana
100 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST THIS
MORNING NORTH OF GAKONA...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches,
  Localized storm total amounts up to 12 inches. Winds gusting as
  high as 40 mph from Isabel Pass to Paxson creating blowing snow.

* WHERE...Copper River Basin north of Gakona.

* WHEN...Until 9 AM AKST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Winds will increase as snow begins to
  taper off overnight, which could cause areas of reduced 
  visibility due to blowing snow, especially through Isabel Pass. 
  If you must travel, plan extra time and carry an emergency kit.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 AM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An occluded low is lifting over the Western Aleutians this
morning, aided by a southerly 100+ knot upper level jet. A broad
front extends from the low to Shemya to Adak and south of the
Western Aleutians. Southeasterly gales have been observed over the
Western and Central Aleutians. Storm force winds and especially
storm force gusts are possible through Saturday afternoon as the
low continues northward. Southeast gales will be common on the
Bering side of the Aleutians while west to southwesterly gales
will be more common on the Pacific side. These higher winds will
be accompanied by 20+ foot seas and guidance suggests 30+ foot
seas may develop on the southwest side of the Rat Islands.

Ahead of the low the jetstream dives southward over the Eastern
Aleutians and into the upstream portion of an upper trough located
over the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay. Downstream of the
trough a southwesterly 95 knot jet streak is overspreading Kodiak
toward the Kenai Peninsula. Several shortwave disturbances are
lifting out of the North Pacific within this southwesterly flow
and will overspread Southcentral throughout the day, possibly
phasing with the Alaska Peninsula/Bristol Bay trough as it
continues eastward.

Across Southcentral current precipitation is limited to the
northern Gulf and parts of Prince William Sound. However, overall
precipitation should expand in coverage throughout the day as the
combination of the upper level jet, phasing trough and shortwaves,
overspread Southcentral with increasing diffluence aloft. Over
Southwest precipitation will be more isolated and light with snow
noted over the Kuskokwim Delta from Hooper Bay into Bethel.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with the synoptic pattern this
morning across the Bering with the strength and track of an upper
low over the Western Aleutians. Across Southcentral models resolve
an area of low pressure moving into Prince William Sound
reasonably well. However, some differences remain with respect to
mesoscale details at the surface. Namely, timing of precipitation
between models remains different depending on the model of choice.
Hi-res guidance and even the NAM and Gem Regional are the fastest
with precipitation departing the Anchorage Bowl by around 9z on
Sunday. The EC is a hair slower with precipitation ending a within
a few hours of hi-res models. Finally, the GFS is the slowest
solution and keeps snow falling across the Anchorage Bowl through
around 15z on Sunday morning. The slower solution of the GFS would
likely result in higher snow amounts for the Anchorage Bowl while
the faster solutions would see lighter amounts through Saturday
night. Aside from timing of precipitation across Southcentral, the
only other discrepancy is noted with the track of a North Pacific
low south of the Alaska Peninsula on Monday morning. The NAM is
slower and further east while the GFS, EC, and Canadian are faster
and further west, bringing the low near Sand Point early Monday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Timing of Saturday's expected snow remains on track with
VFR conditions to precede the snow through roughly 15z. Confidence
is high that ceilings and visibility will steadily deteriorate
through midday as snow increases in coverage, with IFR conditions
anticipated into the evening hours. One uncertainty concerned the
potential for rain to mix in with snow should temperatures hover
just above freezing; however, PANC is already down to 32 degrees
and temperatures should fall further through the morning hours.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to return after dark and closer
to 06z as low pressure departs the region to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3; Today
through Monday)...

Today is the day with the biggest weather impacts and uncertainty
for the next few days. This is due to a surface low tracking
along the north Gulf coast as the upper level trough moves into
the region from the west. Precipitation is showing up an radar
along the north Gulf coast early this morning with rain being
predominant along the coast from Whittier eastward. The colder
air is moving in from the west and the biggest forecast challenge
is determining whether the temperatures in the Cook Inlet area
will remain cold enough to support snow all day or whether it will
mix with or turn to rain. Many times in a situation when
Anchorage has seen southeasterly winds and temperatures in the 40s
the day before this sort of set up, it is hard to cool down
enough for snow. What is a little different today is that there is
neither a south wind or temperatures well above freezing to the
south. Homer and Kenai both dropped below freezing overnight and
this is indicative of the airmass being cold enough to start as
snow for all of the Cook Inlet region this morning. Temperatures
will warm into the mid to upper 30s, but the cooling airmass aloft
should mainly keep precipitation snow except for the southern
Kenai Peninsula where Homer will likely mix with or turn all to
rain. However even there, the Homer bluff will likely remain
mostly snow though the day. That is the thinking for this forecast
package.

The northern Copper River Basin also has a winter weather
advisory out into Sunday morning. The main concern here is for
snow today and then some blowing snow overnight as the snowfall
lessens, but northerly winds pick up through the Alaska Range.

After today, the weather pattern will shift and high pressure will
build over Southcentral. This will clear out skies Sunday into
Monday with the only caveat that there could be areas of fog that
develop after the precipitation ends. This is always a
possibility, but there may be enough dry northwesterly flow moving
over the region to minimize this. This could become a forecast
challenge for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

A weak low pressure system will continue to move across the
eastern Bering and towards Bristol Bay this morning. This system
will produce light snowfall in the area, but little to no
accumulation is expected. As the aforementioned low moves inland
and an upper-level tough passes over Southwest Alaska, shortwaves
will produce light snowfall over the Kuskokwim Delta early today.
However, little to no snow accumulations are expected with this
setup as well. A ridge of high pressure will push over the
Southwest tonight giving way to colder temperatures and clearer
conditions. With the ridge setting up over the Southwest, winds
becoming light and variable, and clearer skies, conditions become
favorable for fog to develop across the Kuskokwim Delta Sunday
night into Monday morning. The next weather producer will move
towards the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night. This low will begin to
increase winds and precipitation chances over the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay areas Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Monday)...

A storm force low and its associated front will move across the
western Aleutians and into the Bering this morning. The
aforementioned low and front will track north and weaken on
Sunday. With the front extending into the western and central
Bering, gales will be produced in these locations Saturday night
into Sunday as a result. Widespread precipitation will move
through the western Aleutians and into the central Aleutians as
the front tracks northeastward with the low. A quick transition of
snow to rain should be expected in these areas. A north Pacific
low will track towards the Alaska Peninsula Sunday night with
gales force winds near the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians.
Widespread rain showers will move through the Alaska Peninsula
Sunday night into Monday with the aforementioned low. However,
models are still having some uncertainty with this North Pacific
low, so precipitation location/timing and the strength of the
winds may change.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A moderately strong North Pacific low moves over
Kodiak Island, as its front extends across the Gulf through
Wednesday. Forecast guidance is good. High end Northeast gales
stretch from the Northern Gulf around Kodiak and Barren Islands,
Shelikof Strait and the Alaska Peninsula Coast, diminishing. Seas
to 16 feet across the Southern Gulf, subsiding Tuesday. Areas of
gusty winds persist through Wednesday.

Bering Sea: A Northern Bering low continues into the Chukchi Sea
by Tuesday. A well developed low and front moves into the Bering
through Wednesday. Forecast guidance is good. Gusty Southerly
winds across the Northern Bering diminish. Seas in ice free waters
to 12 feet, subsiding. The wind wrapped Western Bering low and
front brings high end Southerly gales with areas of storm force
winds over the Aleutians and across the Bering, spreading into the
Central Bering for Wednesday, diminishing. Seas building to 30
feet in parts of the Western Aleutians and Bering by Tuesday,
subsiding Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term begins Tuesday with a continuation of an amplified
upper-level pattern. A large upper-level ridge dominates the
eastern Pacific and extends north along the Al-Can border. A
large upper-level trough remains situated over the western
Aleutians. By wednesday, the ridge is pushed south as a shortwave
trough ejects from the larger trough and moves toward
Southcentral. A second shortwave also drops south from the
northern Bering, allowing a trough to linger across the state
while the ridge reasserts itself over the eastern Pacific and
extends across the AKPen and into the eastern Bering. The long-
wave trough upstream becomes negatively tilted as a large upper-
level ridge builds over eastern Russia. Although models diverage
greatly through next week, they are all indicating the potential
for the establishment of a rex block, with the ridge centered near
the Bering Strait and a trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
positioned along the Aleutian Chain by the end of next week. As
for sensible weather, expected near normal temperatures through
the period with a chance for snow over the interior and a mix of
rain/snow along the coast Tuesday into Wednesday as the
aforementioned shortwaves coverage on Southcentral. Conditions
will remain unsettled across the Aleutians as a series of lows
rotates around the larger upper-level trough.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 101 141.
MARINE...Gale: 119 129 130 150 155 173-175 178 185 412.
         Storm: 176 177 411 413
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/TM