Gale Warning 241, NWS Anchorage, AK

092 
FZAK51 PAFC 060019
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-061315-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1010 mb low 70 nm south of Seward moves into Prince William 
Sound Sat night at 1008 mb. Its trailing front pushes into the 
eastern Gulf Sat night. A 1003 mb North Pacific low brings the 
next front into the western Gulf Mon morning.

$$

PKZ119-061315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-061315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ121-061315-
Resurrection Bay-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-061315-
Prince William Sound-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-061315-
Port Valdez-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-061315-
Valdez Narrows-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-061315-
Valdez Arm-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-061315-
Passage Canal-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-061315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ131-061315-
Barren Islands East-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ132-061315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt except NE 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ136-061315-
Chiniak Bay-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-061315-
Marmot Bay-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-061315-
Shelikof Strait-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-061315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft 
building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-061315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-061315-
Kachemak Bay-
319 PM AKST Sat Mar 5 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft after
midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

369 
FZAK51 PAFC 061222
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070100-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1015 mb low 35 nm SE of Cordova exits the northern Gulf to the 
east Sun morning. A North Pacific low S of the Alaska Peninsula 
brings a slow-moving front into the southern Gulf Sun evening. The 
front moves up Cook Inlet through Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-070100-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt becoming N 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070100-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070100-
Resurrection Bay-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 25 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070100-
Prince William Sound-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070100-
Port Valdez-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070100-
Valdez Narrows-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-070100-
Valdez Arm-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070100-
Passage Canal-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070100-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 9 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070100-
Barren Islands East-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070100-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt except NE 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas
9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070100-
Chiniak Bay-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070100-
Marmot Bay-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070100-
Shelikof Strait-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070100-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070100-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming N 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Areas of freezing fog.
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-070100-
Kachemak Bay-
322 AM AKST Sun Mar 6 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
631 PM AKST Fri Mar 4 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A strong surface low is moving north over Norton Sound this
afternoon. Gusty southwesterly winds wrapping underneath the low
continue to across the Southwest coast, with gusts this morning
peaking between 50 and 60 mph from Kipnuk south to Togiak. A peak
gust of 87 mph was reported earlier this morning at Cape
Newenham. The strongest winds are now over the Kuskokwim Delta.
The winds, combined with snow that has already fallen and bands of
snow lifting south to north, have reduced visibilities at times
across parts of the Kuskokwim Delta to as low as one quarter mile.

Farther east, the tight pressure gradient between the low and a
ridge over the Gulf is also allowing for gusty southeasterly gap
winds to maintain their strength from Palmer down to Turnagain Arm
this afternoon. As of noon, the winds are reaching their peak,
with gusts over 60 mph for some locations along the Upper Hillside
of Anchorage and 45 mph at the Palmer Airport. Widespread
precipitation (coastal rain/snow and inland snow) is also falling
from Prince William Sound to the Susitna Valley, ahead of an
occluding front. The southeasterly cross-barrier flow aloft is
keeping the bulk of this precipitation away from the lee of the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains. A new surface low is currently
developing along the front east of the Barren Islands.

Elsewhere, another surface low is lifting north across the Eastern
Aleutians with a rain/snow mix and gusty southeasterly winds for
Unalaska. A ridge sits over the Western Aleutians and Bering with
generally tranquil weather conditions. Two separate surface lows
are also situated well south of the Aleutian Chain. The first is
south of Attu and is moving north. The second is well south of the
AKPen. This low has good upper level support as it sits in the
right entrance region of a strengthening 100 kt jet streak.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with with the overall synoptic
pattern with respect to the next storm system moving to
Southcentral for Saturday. There are some discrepancies, though,
and these continue to manifest in the speed at which the upper-
level trough and associated surface low move to the northeast
from the western Gulf. The biggest challenge is that each
individual model has had decent run to run consistency, but that
agreement between models still show differences. The NAM remains
the fastest solution with the GEM regional and other hi-res models
lagging slightly behind, albeit slightly slower than previous
runs. The EC is the the middle and GFS and Canadian still the
slowest, keeping precipitation lingering across the Anchorage Bowl
through Sunday morning. Confidence remains high regarding a
widespread snow event for Southcentral. However, confidence in
snow amounts has not improved. The current forecast is weighted
toward the faster solutions. However, if trends begin to favor the
slower solutions, forecasted snow amounts may have to be adjusted
upward.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Southeasterly wind gusts will gradually diminish through
the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will then become light
and variable overnight, turning northeasterly by Saturday morning.
VFR conditions are expected though early morning Saturday before
ceilings begin to lower. MVFR conditions are expected after 15z
with light snow developing. IFR conditions are then expected by
mid-morning and continuing through Saturday afternoon with snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday night)...

Southeasterly winds will begin to diminish tonight ahead of an
approaching trough that will bring more precipitation across the
area. Precipitation is expected to remain mostly wet snow or a
rain and snow mix during the afternoon. Intensities may increase
throughout the afternoon. Models have aligned a little better with
the trajectory and a broadening of the trough near Prince William
Sound Saturday afternoon. Some disagreement in the timing of the
low, but most of the models appear to have some agreement in wrap
around precipitation and lingering snowfall in the Anchorage area,
especially for higher elevations near Eagle River and the
Hillside. Northwesterly winds, plenty of moisture, and cold air
advection on the tail end of the low could enhance upsloping snow
and potentially raise some of the snow ratios before completely
diminishing. The shift in the weather pattern along with greater
confidence in higher snow totals along the Hillside has lead to a
Winter Weather Advisory. North of Gakona, especially near Paxson,
will also have snowfall around approaching 10 inches with locally
heavier amounts and opted for an Advisory in the northern areas of
the Copper River Basin. As winds increase Sunday morning, blowing
snow and reduced visibility is also possible near Isabel Pass.

A brief ridge will build behind the trough. Cold air advection
along with efficient cooling from skies clearing will allow for
gap winds to increase Sunday afternoon. A developing North Pacific
low will press through towards the western Gulf on Sunday night
and although there is better agreement, there is still enough
uncertainty in the forecast beyond Monday morning for the onset of
another wave of precipitation nearing Kodiak Island Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 to 2 - This
afternoon through Sun night)...

A shortwave trough producing a compact low pressure system will
move across the eastern Bering tonight and move towards Bristol
Bay by Saturday morning. This weak system will bring snow showers
to the area. Additionally, a low pressure system will move into
the western Gulf towards Saturday morning and help to produce an
area of light snow across western parts of Bristol Bay. Both of
these systems will produce little to no snow accumulations. By
Saturday night and Sunday these systems will clear the area and be
replaced by high pressure with cooler temperatures. As skies
clear and winds become light Sunday night and Monday morning fog
is expected to develop across the Kuskokwim Delta. By Sunday night
another low pressure will move towards the AKPen with increasing
winds and chances of rain and snow for the AKPen. However, there
is model uncertainty with this next low, so stay tuned as we
update the forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 to 2 - This
afternoon through Sun night)...

A compact low pressure north of Cold Bay will track towards
Bristol Bay. This will produce a small area of gales mainly on
the south side of the low. Otherwise, a storm force low and front
will move across the Western Aleutians tonight and then into the
western Bering Saturday this will bring a short period of snow
changing over to rain. This low will slowly track north and weaken
on Sunday, but will continue to produce gales across portions of
the western Bering. A north Pacific low will move towards the
AKPen Sunday night with gale force winds possible near the AKPen
and eastern Bering. However, model uncertainty exists with this
low so forecast could change. Stay tuned.

&&
.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A moderately strong North Pacific low moves over
Kodiak Island, as its front extends across the Gulf through
Wednesday. Forecast guidance is good. High end northeast gales
stretch from the northern Gulf around Kodiak and Barren Islands,
Shelikof Strait and the Alaska Peninsula coast, diminishing. Seas
to 16 feet across the southern Gulf, subsiding Tuesday. Areas of
gusty winds persist through Wednesday.

Bering Sea: A northern Bering low continues into the Chukchi Sea
by Tuesday. A well developed low and front moves into the Bering
through Wednesday. Forecast guidance is good. Gusty southerly
winds across the northern Bering diminish. Seas in ice free
waters to 12 feet, subsiding. The wind wrapped western Bering low
and front brings high end southerly gales with areas of storm
force winds over the Aleutians and across the Bering, spreading
into the Central Bering for Wednesday, diminishing. Seas building
to 30 feet in parts of the Western Aleutians and Bering by
Tuesday, subsiding Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term begins Tuesday with a continuation of an amplified
upper-level pattern. A large upper-level ridge dominates the
eastern Pacific and extends north along the Al-Can border. A
large upper-level trough remains situated over the Western
Aleutians. By Wednesday, the ridge is pushed south as a shortwave
trough ejects from the larger trough and moves toward
Southcentral. A second shortwave also drops south from the
northern Bering, allowing a trough to linger across the state
while the ridge reasserts itself over the eastern Pacific and
extends across the AKPen and into the eastern Bering. The long-
wave trough upstream becomes negatively tilted as a large upper-
level ridge builds over eastern Russia. Although models diverage
greatly through next week, they are all indicating the potential
for the establishment of a rex block, with the ridge centered near
the Bering Strait and a trough with multiple embedded shortwaves
positioned along the Aleutian Chain by the end of next week. As
for sensible weather, expected near normal temperatures through
the period with a chance for snow over the interior and a mix of
rain/snow along the coast Tuesday into Wednesday as the
aforementioned shortwaves coverage on Southcentral. Conditions
will remain unsettled across the Aleutians as a series of lows
rotates around the larger upper-level trough.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 101 141.
MARINE...Storm: 175-178 411 413.
		 Gale: 119 130 173 174 185 412.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/TM