Storm Warning 52, NWS Anchorage, AK

954 
FZAK52 PAFC 201313
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-210245-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 978 mb low 420 nm southwest of Saint Paul this morning will 
move 290 nm northwest of Saint Paul at 984 mb Monday morning. The
low then moves 580 nm northwest of Saint Paul at 998 mb Tuesday 
morning. A front moves across the western Aleutians Monday morning
through Tuesday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-210245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-210245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt except S 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 14 ft. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-210245-
Bristol Bay-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-210245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
14 ft except 8 ft from Port Moller E.
.MON...S wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-210245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 50 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt
through gaps and passes in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-210245-
Unalaska Bay-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-210245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 55 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt
in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft building to 26 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-210245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-210245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt early becoming SW wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft. 
Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-210245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-210245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ177-210245-
Adak to Kiska-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft Bering side...16 ft Pac side.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-210245-
Kiska to Attu-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-210245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-210245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt.

$$

PKZ181-210245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt.
.MON...S wind 35 kt.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt.
.THU...E wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-210245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
413 AM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing
spray W of 176W. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing
spray W of 176W. Snow and rain.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy freezing
spray W of 176W. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

407 
FZAK52 PAFC 210016
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-211300-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 976 mb low 180 nm north of Amchitka moves through the northern 
Bering by Tue morning. A front from a South Kamchatka low reaches 
the western Aleutians late Mon night and crosses the western 
Bering through Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-211300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-211300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft except 14 ft from the Shumagin
Islands E.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt except S 30 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind
25 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-211300-
Bristol Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.

$$

PKZ165-211300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. 
Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-211300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-211300-
Unalaska Bay-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-211300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-211300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-211300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ175-211300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-211300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 21 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 40 kt after midnight. 
Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-211300-
Adak to Kiska-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-211300-
Kiska to Attu-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-211300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ180-211300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt.
.MON...S wind 35 kt.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-211300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Rain.
.MON...S wind 40 kt.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.WED...E wind 30 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-211300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
316 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...S wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NW 20 kt 
W of Saint Matthew Island.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.WED...E wind 30 kt.
.THU...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large low pressure system near 47N 168E is moving northeastward.
A weak trough of low pressure currently extends across the Gulf of
Alaska. An upper level low currently over eastern Siberia and the
Bering Strait is slowly drifting westward. The jetstream currently
extends northeastward from the subtropical west Pacific to the
eastern Aleutian Islands and then extends eastward across the
southern Gulf of Alaska into Southeast Alaska and British
Columbia.

Closer to the surface, radar shows isolated showers moving
eastward across the northern Gulf .

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are generally in good agreement with respect to the
placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. The biggest
area of uncertainty continues to be precipitation type as subtle
differences in forecast 850 mb temperatures are observed. Subtle
differences in smaller scale phenomena are also apparent and this
can affect the temperature forecast and thus affect the
precipitation-type forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Conditions will mainly be VFR for this TAF period. IFR
conditions are likely between 20/07z and 20/10z as ceilings will
fall to near 700ft. Light winds will persist througout the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Today through Monday
Night)...

A quiet start to the forecast period will become more active
Monday morning and beyond as the next North Pacific storm moves
into Southcentral.

Southcentral is finally starting to see a break in the parade of
storms this weekend as upper level ridging builds into the
region. The skies have done a remarkable job at clearing, with
much of Anchorage, the Kenai, and Kodiak seeing more stars than
clouds this morning. Meanwhile lower cloud cover remains in place
for much of the rest of the area. It remains to be seen how well
the sun can work at the low stratus up in the Valley, but there is
at least some chance that the skies can clear up that way as well.
Any leftover precipitation over the Copper Basin will quickly end
this morning, leaving the entire area dry for much of the day.
Temperatures have been falling below freezing, so slick conditions
are likely this morning.

Tonight a weakening front will move over Kodiak Island during the
evening. Temperatures should be warm enough for mostly rain, but a
mix with snow can't be ruled out. Regardless, no accumulations are
expected. The front will continue shearing apart as it pushes into
the southern Kenai Peninsula late tonight, but any shower activity
will be very light and short-lived around Homer. There is high
confidence no measurable precipitation will encroach much further
north Sunday morning. Unfortunately, despite the lack of
precipitation, cloud cover will more successfully encroach on the
area, resulting in an overcast, but dry day for most of
Southcentral on Sunday.

On Sunday night, a second front will move into Kodiak. Unlike the
first front, this will be the start of a prolonged period of
occasionally heavy precipitation for not just Kodiak, but for all
of Southcentral. Unfortunately, there remains considerable
uncertainty as to the track of the storm and the wind pattern
around the stalled front, which looks to set up along Cook Inlet.

It's looking increasingly likely that there will be a Turnagain
Arm wind for much of the day on Monday, but it's not as clear as
to whether or not that wind will bend into Anchorage. Temperatures
will once again be right on the borderline with this event, as a
considerable amount of warm air is funneled north along the front
above the surface. As of now generally we are looking at the 31
to 36 degree range for much of Southcentral, which if we are at
the higher end, will be a mostly rain event, whereas temperatures
closer to freezing could result in either a cold rain or a wet,
heavy-consistency snow that mostly melts on contact with road
surfaces, especially Monday afternoon. As usual, the further south
you go the warmer you get. Since a very general consensus of the
guidance has the front aligned north-south along Cook Inlet into
the Susitna Valley, lots of warm air being funneled north along
the front most likely will result in mostly rain from Anchorage
south, while heavy wet snow is likely in the Susitna Valley where
cold air is notoriously difficult to displace.

On Monday night into early Tuesday morning, a strong low
supported by a strong upper level shortwave will track into
Southcentral along the front. As the low approaches and moves
through, it will enhance the precipitation rates area-wide, but
the track remains highly uncertain. The closer to the coast the
low tracks, the more likely there will be widespread snow, and
vice versa. A small change in track makes a large difference for
communities along it, so once again it can't be said with any
certainty how precipitation type will work out. The low tracking
through during the overnight should help support a snowier
solution, but track is far more important. Precipitation will
quickly end from west to east Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Today
through Tuesday)...

An active pattern continues for Southwest through Tuesday. A
series of fronts will move through the region this weekend, with
the first front set to track across later today. Precipitation
will begin as snow across northern and interior Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Delta this afternoon. There will be a quick
transition to rain, with a possible brief period of freezing rain,
as the front passes over these areas this evening. Another much
warmer front is expected to move into the region during the day on
Sunday, bringing widespread rain with temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s. Freezing rain potential with this feature will move
into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, namely for the villages from
Aniak east. Please see the current Special Weather Statement for
more details.

By Sunday night, another frontal system aims for the northwestern
part of the Kuskokwim Delta and will prolong precipitation in this
area. Conditions finally look to clear up from south-north across
the region as the front pushes northward. Another system will
track northward across Southwest from the western Gulf/north
Pacific Monday morning into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 -
Today through Tuesday)...

An active pattern persists for the Bering Sea and Aleutians
through Tuesday. First, a surface low remains nearly stationary
over the western Aleutians while its front spreads west-east
across the Bering as it pushes northward. A quick transition from
snow to rain is expected as the front passes through,
Precipitation will remain as snow for the northern Bering. Next,
a strong low pressure system moves from the north Pacific into the
central Bering. A front first crosses over the Aleutians early
Sunday, and then the associated storm force low tracks over the
central Aleutians shortly after. There is still some uncertainty
as to the exact track of this storm. Although the strongest winds
are still expected to occur between Adak and Unalaska, current
model solutions have the winds peaking later Sunday morning and
diminishing into late Sunday night. The low strength is also
depicted to be a bit weaker, so winds look like they will only
peak at storm force. The low center has shifted more to the east,
and this now puts Nikolski and Unalaska at the greatest risk for
seeing some of the strongest winds from this storm. As such, a
High Wind Watch will take effect late tonight and last through
Sunday afternoon for the eastern Aleutians.

Sunday afternoon into Monday, the storm force low and the
aforementioned stationary low join together to form one big low
pressure system over the central Bering. This new system elongates
and moves into the northern Bering by Tuesday morning. At the
same time, another front from the north Pacific moves across the
western and central Aleutians. The front pushes northeastward
across the Bering through Tuesday as the associated surface low
approaches the western Aleutians.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

High pressure moves into the Eastern Gulf for Tuesday. A front
enters the Western Gulf and extends across the Northern Gulf
through Wednesday. Forecast guidance is good. Light winds yield to
gusty Southerly winds less than gale force moves across the Gulf
through Wednesday. An area of high end Easterly gales extends over
the Barren Islands and Kamishak Bay late Monday through
Wednesday. Seas to 12 feet with the front through Wednesday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

The weather pattern continues busy through Wednesday. A well
developed Central Bering low moves through The Bering Strait for
Tuesday. A strong front moves across the Aleutians and Bering
through Wednesday. Forecast confidence is good. The Central Bering
wind wrapped low has high end Southerly gales with areas of storm
force winds on its Eastern flank, diminishing Tuesday. Western
flank has Northerly gales, diminishing late Monday. Seas to 24
feet over the Central Bering, and to 20 feet on the Pacific side
of the Aleutians, subsiding late Monday. Widespread Southerly
gales with the front move into the Central Aleutians and Bering by
Wednesday. Seas building to 20 feet for Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Upper level trough/ridge pattern continues through the long term.
Ridging over the State on Tuesday moves eastward through the late
week, meanwhile, longwave troughing extends over the Bering sea.
Solutions are hinting at the development of a surface low at the
base of the trough south of Kodiak Island/Southern AKPen. This
would bring active weather to Kodiak Island initially, and to the
North Gulf Coast later as the front moves northwards. Periods of
warmer air ahead of front may keep temperatures freezing in some
places, and precipitation type will continue to vary. There is
fair model agreement for the progression of the upper level waves
moving across the State through mid-week. Model spread begins to
grow beyond Wednesday with the approach of a North Pacific low.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187.
High Wind Watch 185.
MARINE...Storm Warning 170 173 174 175 412 413 414.
Gale Warning 155 165 171 172 176 177 178 179 181 185 411.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185 411 412.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AF
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/KM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
335 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

AKZ152-155-161-201500-
Lower Kuskokwim Valley-Kuskokwim Delta-Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of Aniak, Sleetmute, Bethel, Hooper Bay,
Nunivak Island, King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, and Pilot Point
335 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

A series of weak fronts will move through Southwest Alaska this
weekend, each bringing multiple types of precipitation. Snow has
developed this afternoon along the Southwest coast and is pushing
into the interior of Southwest in advance of the first front. A
brief period of freezing rain is possible for these areas Saturday
evening as warmer air moves overhead. Any ice accumulations are
expected to be less than five hundredths of an inch, with areas
between Togiak and Kipnuk and being the most likely to receive any
freezing rain. Impacts are expected to be minimal as winds will
become southerly on Sunday, warming temperatures above freezing
and transitioning remaining precipitation to all rain.

Another much warmer front will move into the region mid-day on
Sunday. This will produce widespread rain with temperatures in
the mid to upper 30s. The higher chance of freezing rain will
shift into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley, potentially bringing light
freezing rain to villages from Aniak east. Impacts are expected
to be minimal with all areas likely to be in the mid to upper 30s
by Monday; however, warm temperatures and rain may result in slick
conditions throughout the area by early next week as compacted
snow begins to melt.