Storm Warning 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

163 
FZAK62 PAFC 210013
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211345-
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 976 mb low at 54N 179W moves through the northern Bering by Tue
morning. A front from a South Kamchatka low reaches the western 
Bering late Mon night and crosses the western Bering through Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft. Snow and rain 
showers.
.MON...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
313 PM AKST Sun Feb 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
732 PM AKST Sat Feb 19 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN Active pattern is setting up for western Alaska and the Bering
Sea as a strong low over the western Aleutians and its's
associated front move into the region. This low is interacting
with an upper level ridge over the eastern Aleutians which is
pushing a jet streak of around 125 kt at 250 mb over the central
Aleutians. Another strengthening low can be seen on satellite
near 42N and moving northward quickly. This is the system that is
bringing the high wind potential to the Aleutians tonight into
Sunday.

Surface high pressure over the northern AlCan border as well as a
weak trough along the north Gulf coast has cleared out much of
Southcentral today especially in coastal areas. Moisture packed
into the interior of Southcentral, assisted by a weak shortwave, is
keeping the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin under clouds in
spite of the favorable northerly flow.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the middle of
next week. The models issues will be of a more subtle nature. For
tonight into tomorrow there is a slight difference with the
position of the main low and the way the front moves through the
eastern Aleutians. This could have an impact on the strength of
the winds in the eastern and central Aleutians tomorrow.
Another area of note will be for the Anchorage and Matanuska area
on Monday and Monday night. The GFS and NAM have different wind
directions in Anchorage which will be a world of difference in the
forecast. Should the northerly GFS winds occur, it would be snow
potential. The southeast NAM winds would either downslope out the
precipitation or it would be mostly rain with temperatures in the
upper 30s near sea level. This will be an important distinction to
watch for the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Chances for
IFR ceilings overnight have diminished, though it is never
impossible for them to develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tue afternoon)...

Quiet weather is expected to continue throughout Southcentral
tonight and through the day on Sunday. A rather strong upper level
shortwave aloft which is responsible for the current increase in
high level clouds the area is seeing will continue moving
northeastward tonight. With some moisture still available in the
lowest levels of the atmosphere and the upper level shortwave
providing the lift, on and off snow showers are expected to
continue mainly across the west facing Talkeetna/Wrangell
Mountains and even the southern Alaska Range in the Copper River
Basin through around midnight. After midnight, expect mostly
flurries for these areas through perhaps daybreak Sunday before
enough dry air works to shut any precipitation off. Also, some
colder air is expected to bleed into the Copper River Basin
overnight that is expected to result in an increase in the gap
winds especially through the Copper River Delta where 30kt gusts
are possible as well as through the Valdez Narrows area. Winds are
expected to increase in the Valdez port and Arm as well but not as
strong as the Narrows. Whittier will also continue to see gusty
westerly winds with gusts as high as 35kts through the night
before diminishing early Sunday am. Depending on just how much
cloud cover Southcentral sees overnight will dictate how cold
temperatures get for Sunday morning but right now looks to be
teens and 20s with the teens mainly in the Susitna Valley with
single digits for the Copper River Basin.

Next, a weak front is expected to continue moving northward
through Kodiak overnight that might bring a rain or snow shower to
Kodiak City itself. However, this will be a nuisance if anything.
Most of the moisture is lost as the front lifts north through
Southcentral resulting in at most just mid to level clouds for
Sunday, perhaps Homer may squeeze out some moisture for brief
sprinkle or flurry. Therefore, thinking most areas will see highs
right around freezing with teens and low 20s for the Copper River
Basin. Kodiak and the southern Kenai Peninsula will see
temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Attention then turns to the next weather system that will begin to
make its way northward late Sunday night. The system will first
affect Kodiak Island right around daybreak on Monday but with
mostly rain as temperatures are expected to be well above
freezing. With a dominant southerly flow aloft, some downsloping
is expected resulting in between 0.25-0.5" of rain with mountains
surrounding Kodiak seeing upwards of an 1" or more. Moisture
continues streaming northward Monday morning through Monday
afternoon into Southcentral. Mostly snow is expected from this
system for the Susitna Valley where a Winter Storm Watch is in
effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for heavy
snow with accumulations of 12 to 24 inches possible. Heaviest in
the foothills of the Alaska Range and 12 to 18 inches along the
Parks Highway from Talkeetna north. This system also looks to
favor Hatcher Pass again with southwesterly flow aloft, though,
this may have a more southerly component to it this time around
but still think 12 to 18 inches here. As a rigorous upper level
shortwave lifts north along the Alaska Peninsula Monday afternoon
and evening, expect increased lift with abundant moisture in the
atmosphere to result in an increase in snowfall rates for these
areas. The upper level shortwave trough passes through Tuesday
morning tapering off precipitation from west to east.

There still remains uncertainty with this system and these details
will continue to be fine tuned over the coming days but there is
the potential for strong Turnagain Arm winds as well as strong
gusty winds on the Anchorage Hillside. There may also be several
inches of snow for the western Kenai Peninsula particularly Kenai
but this will largely depend on just how much cold air is around.
Lastly, is the Copper River Basin where southerly flow could
result in a fair amount of snow for the Paxson area. Eastern
Prince William Sound including Thompson Pass and the town of
Valdez can also potentially see anywhere from 12 to 24 inches from
this system. Thinking enough cold air holds on to keep Valdez all
snow from this one. Cordova is a little more uncertain but think
enough cold air hangs on to result in several inches of snow here
also with rain potentially mixing in at times. Seward, Whittier,
and Portage area thinking a rain/snow mix which will limit
snowfall amounts to only a couple to several inches at best.

Southcentral begins to quiet down Tue afternoon as an upper level
ridge builds overhead and the aforementioned system pushes off to
the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3 - Tonight
through Tuesday)...

Steady light snow continues tonight, then gradually transitions to
rainfall on Sunday morning as warm southerly winds fills overhead.
The combination of a mid to upper-ridging and warm southerly
winds connected to a frontal system from the Bering will aid to
rising warmer temperatures and rainfall on Sun and Sun night. Long
waves and short-wave upper troughs will bring another round of
steady light snow and rain/snow mixed for the region Mon afternoon
into Mon night, followed by an upper ridge from the Bering Tue
morning. This will bring relief to end snowy conditions, where
partly cloudy to mostly clear and cooler temperatures will be
found beneath the ridge axis on Tue and Tue night. Overall, an
active pattern continues through Mon night, with the heaviest
rainfall amounts expected over Bristol Bay and parts of Southwest
Delta Coast the next few days. Please refer to the Special Weather
Statement for Southwest entailing information about a wintry mix
pattern for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3 -
Tonight through Tuesday)...

High Wind Warnings for Eastern and Central Aleutians are in effect
from 7AM to 5PM AKST Sun in response to an approaching
strengthening North Pacific low. This expected system will bring
widespread gales and elevated winds for the Aleutians and much of
the Bering including the Pribilof Islands the next few days.
Sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 75 mph is expected
over Central Aleutians, and winds of 50 to 65 mph with gusts to
80 mph for the Eastern Aleutians. Essentially, large seas of more
than 25 ft will spread along the south of the warned area on Sun
morning before reaching the central Bering and the Pribilofs Sun
evening. Solutions continue to place the low farther west of the
Pribilofs which will keep the strongest winds over Central/Eastern
Aleutians into Sun night and in the path of the Pribilof Islands
into Mon afternoon.

Another broad frontal system from the Northwest Pacific will reach
the Western Aleutians Mon evening, which brings another round of
widespread gales and large seas of 20 ft for the Aleutians/Bering
through Tue evening. Overall, anticipate a very busy weather
pattern for the area through the short term.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska:
A barrier jet along the Gulf coast is expected on Tuesday and
will weaken Tuesday night. Predominantly south to southeasterly
flow is expected in the Gulf through midweek as a ridge shifts
east and a North Pacific low approaches the Gulf. A front moving
through the Gulf on Wednesday will bring the potential for gales
through the western Gulf with the possibility for enhancement to
storm force winds through the Barren Islands. Winds may also bend
into Shelikof Strait. Another coastal barrier jet could return
Thursday evening. Precipitation is also expected with these
frontal passages. Seas about 10 feet on Tuesday will build through
Wednesday evening with the highest seas to around 17 feet,
associated with this front. Higher seas will be aimed towards the
western Gulf, south of Kodiak Island to the Kenai Peninsula.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:
Predominantly southerly flow is expected midweek as a front
enters the Western Bering Tuesday. Storm force winds will reach
the Western to Central Aleutians and gales stretching north into
the Bering on Tuesday. This front will track eastward through
Thursday with the passage of a northward moving low. Gales are
expected through midweek with some enhancement through bays and
gaps. Plenty of warm, southerly moisture will wrap into this low
and bring widespread precipitation through midweek. By Thursday
afternoon, another, less vigorous low follows into the Bering.
Seas up to 18 feet with the strongest winds near the front through
Wednesday in the Bering. On the Pacific side, seas will be
widespread 15 to 20 feet for the Western and Central Aleutians.

&&

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A couple of key features in the long term include a strong upper
level ridge along an axis that extends from the northern Gulf of
Alaska northward over the North Slope, and a broad upper level
trough over the western Bering. Several upper level waves in
between these two features will lift from south to north over the
central Bering, introducing widespread precipitation across the
Bering and Southwest Alaska. This pattern will also bring a surge
of warmer, southerly flow across much of the southern part of the
state as well as the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutians. By Friday,
the broad upper level trough that initially started out over the
Bering shifts eastward, laying down tracks for several North
Pacific lows to lift inland over Southcentral through next
weekend. Overall, an active pattern will continue through the next
week. By the weekend, a much colder airmass will settle in place
over the western Bering while a warmer airmass will remain parked
over the northern Gulf.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 185 187.
		 Winter Storm Watch 145.
MARINE...Storm Warning 170 172-175.
		 Gale Warning 155 165 171 176-181 185 411 412 414.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MV
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...VR/KO