Storm Warning 33, NWS Anchorage, AK

253 
FZAK62 PAFC 020035
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 1 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-021515-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 1 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 947 mb low at 47N 175W moves to 52N 165E at 965 mb for Thu 
afternoon. Its front extends across the Bering through Thu 
afternoon. A 975 mb low near 50N 163W Wed afternoon moves to 58N 
167W at 978 mb by Thu afternoon. A 964 mb North Pacific low 
approaches the Eastern Aleutians for Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 1 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 1 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt becoming 30 to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 16 ft building to 14 to 27 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ413-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 1 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft building to 8 to 16
ft after midnight. Snow showers and rain showers.
.WED...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 28 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 23 ft subsiding to 9 to 15 ft after midnight.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-021515-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
335 PM AKST Tue Feb 1 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9
ft. Rain and snow.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7
ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to 6 ft.

$$

953 
FZAK62 PAFC 021226
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
326 AM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-030215-
326 AM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 948 mb low at 51N 176W moves to 50N 165E at 967 mb for Fri 
morning. Its front extends across the Bering through Wed 
evening. A 975 mb low near 54N 162W Wed evening moves to 59N 163W
at 985 mb by Thu evening and dissipates as it moves inland Fri
morning. A North Pacific low moves to 51N 164W at 967mb for Fri 
morning.

$$

PKZ411-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
326 AM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft building to 15 to
23 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 29 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
326 AM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt becoming 35 to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 to 17 ft building to 14 to 28 ft in the afternoon. Snow and
rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 28 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 58N
172W. Snow.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray N of 58N
172W. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ413-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
326 AM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 29 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-030215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
326 AM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 to 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Snow. Heavy freezing spray N of 58N 168W. 
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray N of 58N 168W in the morning.
.THU NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7
ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to
6 ft.

$$

632 
FZAK62 PAFC 030019
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
319 PM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-031515-
319 PM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 953 mb low at 55N 180 moves to 51N 169E at 972 mb for Fri 
afternoon. Its front wraps over the Bering through Fri afternoon. 
A 978 mb low near 50N 161W moves to 61N 164W at 992 mb by Fri 
afternoon. A 985 mb North Pacific low moves to 55N 160W at 981 mb 
for Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-031515-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
319 PM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 27 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-031515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
319 PM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Snow.
.THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.FRI...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-031515-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
319 PM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind up to 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ414-031515-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
319 PM AKST Wed Feb 2 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.
Rain and snow. 
.THU...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 to 6
ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3
to
6 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 to 9 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Northwesterly flow aloft continues across much of Southcentral
this morning out ahead of a building weak upper level ridge off to
the southwest. Some residual moisture is present in the lowest
levels of the atmosphere underneath an inversion. This has been
resulting in areas of dense fog around Anchorage and the northern
Kenai Peninsula. The fog did make it into Kenai for a time earlier
this morning. Low level stratus was the main issue near Palmer and
Birchwood where mostly a low level stratus deck was observed.
Elsewhere, Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin were just clear
and very cold. Gulkana dropped to -33 degrees this morning with
negative teens and 20s below zero around Talkeetna and Skwentna.
Some high level clouds can be seen streaming in from the south
across the southern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island as the next
frontal system continues moving northward.

Across Southwest, a transient weak upper level ridge continues to
move through the area. This is resulting in mostly quiet and dry
conditions, though, mid to high level clouds can be seen on
visible satellite imagery moving into the area as the next frontal
system approaches. Temperatures across Southwest are very cold
this morning especially across the Kuskokwim Valley with
where it dropped to -27 degrees in Sleetmute this morning.
Elsewhere was mostly single numbers and teens for the Kuskokwim
Delta and Bristol Bay.

Lastly, one low pressure system continues moving rapidly
northwestward across the western Bering towards Russia with high
end gale force winds across the western Bering. Another low
pressure system can be seen on satellite imagery moving northward
towards the Eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement on the synoptic
scale features out through Day 3. However, of course, some
difference do arise in terms of placement, track, and timing of
individual features. First for Southcentral, model guidance is
showing a triple point low developing to the east of Kodiak Island
Tuesday afternoon. It then tracks this low (~1000 mb) across the
northern Gulf towards Southeast Alaska through Wednesday morning
while weakening. Therefore, the challenge remained today exactly
how much snow will fall across Southcentral as well as how far
inland the moisture will get. Across Southwest and the Bering,
there is decent model agreement on the various lows that are
expected to traverse the area over the next couple days. However,
differences do emerge on the low that will be moving northward
towards Adak Tuesday evening into Wednesday especially in regards
to placement of this low as it moves into the Bering Sea. Active
weather is expected to continue across the Bering Sea/Aleutian
Chain from Wednesday afternoon into Day 3 (Thursday). While the
general theme is overall in good agreement, exact placement of
features, as well as timing remain uncertain and will continue to
be fine tuned as confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds are expected through around
01/03z-04z this evening. Current thinking is that the fog that was
over the terminal this morning will move back over the terminal
this evening and overnight, especially since it is still present
on visible imagery through this afternoon. Therefore, brought the
terminal back down to MVFR conditions and then LIFR conditions
around midnight, though, there is the chance the terminal comes
down to LIFR conditions earlier like yesterday evening. Think a
similar thing may happen tomorrow morning with any fog lifting
during the mid to late morning before some light snow moves over
the terminal around noontime.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3: Tonight
through Thursday)...

High pressure ridging remains in place across most of
Southcentral, except across Kodiak, where the outer reaches of
an approaching frontal system are just beginning to arrive with
wet snow that will soon change to rain with warming southeast
winds. Dense fog that earlier impacted much of the MatSu Valleys
has cleared out for the most part, but will have a chance to re-
develop in similar areas this evening as the sun sets and surface
temperatures drop back closer to dew points. Any fog that
develops is not likely to persist long into tomorrow morning as
east to northeast winds increase ahead of the approaching frontal
system moving into the Gulf as low level moisture becomes mixed
out.

On Tuesday, synoptic lift ahead of the front slowly stalling in
the Gulf and an associated upper level trough will spread north,
sending a round of snow across Southcentral beginning from south
to north. Southeasterly flow coupled with high pressure remaining
over the Copper River Basin will help drive up gap winds during
the day on Tuesday, including through the Matanuska Valley and
Turnagain Arm. This southeast flow will likely be strong enough to
reduce snowfall totals near Anchorage and Palmer due to downslope
drying, but not enough to prevent reaching totals ranging from a
half-inch to 2 inches across the Matanuska Valley and greater
Anchorage area. Expect snowfall totals generally ranging from 2
to 6 inches for lower elevations for elsewhere, except near
Portage Valley, Whittier and over the Homer Bluffs, where around 6
to 8 inches and locally higher amounts are possible through
Tuesday night. The gap winds through the Matanuska Valley,
Turnagain Arm, and also Thompson Pass could cause periods of
blowing snow after falling snow begins until winds begin to
subside overnight Tuesday.

On Wednesday, support will quickly fall apart for snow from west
to east as the upper level trough shifts towards the AK Panhandle
and as transient ridging moves back overhead. However, the break
will be short lived, with another system shifting north into
Kodiak Island and sending another round of snow, possibly mixing
with rain near the coast, across much of the area on Thursday.
Once again, strong southeast flow will develop across the Kenai
Peninsula, limiting potential for snow across most of the
Matanuska Valley through at least Thursday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An active weather pattern is in store for Southwest Alaska for
the next couple days. A North Pacific low is tracking towards the
southern Bering tonight with its front reaching the Bristol Bay
coast by this evening. As this low progresses north, it is
bringing a swath of warmer air with it. As warm air advects over
the coast, areas of rain, freezing rain, and even sleet are
possible across Southwest Alaska. The most affected areas will
likely be the Kuskokwim Delta, from Bethel west, and Dillingham
and areas north and west. Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued for these areas as a result. Iliamna to Port Heiden, including
King Salmon, will likely see very little in the way of snow or
freezing rain as warmer air is expected to produce all rain for
these areas. However, uncertainty still remains due to the warm
air mass that will be accompanying the low. With a deeper warm
layer moving in and colder temperatures currently over the
Southwest coast, this scenario could promote more freezing rain.
However, if the warm air mass is shallower, than the resultant
precipitation type will be more along the lines of sleet/rain and
a rain/snow mix. Trying to pinpoint how deep this warm layer will
be and how it will react with the cold air in place, makes this
forecast challenging. Additionally, the more warm air that is
mixed in, will result in less snowfall/snow accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A series of low pressures will move across the Bering in the
coming days. Two North Pacific lows will push north towards the
Bering tonight with both tracking at opposite ends of the
Aleutian Chain. The low near Shemya will bring gale force winds
and light rain/snow showers to the Western Aleutians tonight
before it exits off to the north tomorrow morning. The second low
is currently tracking towards the Alaska Peninsula and ill bring
a swath of warmer air along its front. Rain is forecasted to be
the primary precipitation type for the southern Alaska Peninsula,
with freezing rain along the Southwest coast. Gale force winds are
expected through Bristol Bay and out of Shelikof Strait, but
overall, precipitation remains the highest impact from this
system. Another system out of the North Pacific moves over the
Central Aleutians by late Tuesday night. Expected impacts include
rain or a rain/snow mix, with snow expected for higher
elevations, and gusty storm force winds along the front.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A well developed low tracks along the North Gulf Coast through
Saturday. Forecast confidence decreases with the low track and
development through the period. Gale force barrier jets through
Lower Cook Inlet, Barren Islands and Shelikof Strait diminish
Friday. Seas to 14 feet through Cook Inlet and Shelikof Strait
subside Friday.

Barrier jets develop along the Eastern North Gulf Coast ahead of
the low through Saturday. A front moves across the Gulf through
Saturday. Widespread high end gales extend across the Gulf through
Saturday, Seas to 20 feet, subsiding.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A well developed Western Bering low complex weakens as it swings
around to the South side of the Western Aleutians by Saturday.This
low pulls a second low across the Alaska Peninsula into the
Bering through Saturday. Forecast confidence is uncertain due to
the tracks and development of the lows. Widespread high end gales
across the Bering with areas of storm force winds around the
Western Bering low diminish from East to West over the Bering by
Saturday. Seas to 30 feet over the Western Bering, subsiding. The
Eastern low has gales on both side of the Alaska Peninsula,
diminishing. Seas to 20 feet, subsiding Friday.

A new low approaches the Eastern Aleutians late Friday, and
tracks along the Alaska Peninsula Coast through
Saturday.Widespread gales near shore, with areas of storm force
winds offshore. Seas to 25 feet through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Looking ahead at the extended forecast, little has changed with
the overall pattern as active weather for the southern half of
the state is still anticipated. Models continue to show a 300 mb
North Pacific jet positioned south of the Aleutians on Friday that
moves northeastward over the Gulf and Southcentral through
Saturday, exiting into Canada. An associated surface low is
located in tandem with the jet's left exit region and upstream of
an upper-level ridge as it tracks along the south side of the
Aleutians on Friday. Early on Saturday, the low moves across the
Southwest/Southcentral and dissipates. In summary, this system
will bring a round of widespread precipitation from west to east
across the southern half of the state as it tracks eastward.

From Friday through Sunday night, there is a low pressure system
located just southwest of Shemya that remains nearly stationary
for the entire three days until another low approaches the central
Aleutians from the North Pacific. The front extending from this
low will push northeastward along the Aleutian Chain and into
Southwest/Southcentral through Monday. A broad ridge starts to
build over the Gulf late on Monday.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 155 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 119 131 176.
         Gale Warning: 120 130 132 138 139 150 160 165 170
                       173-175 177 178 180 185 351 413.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 139 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/AF