Storm Warning 39, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 31, 2022, 3:17 PM AKST (00:17 UTC)

Expired

Jan 31, 2022, 4:30 PM AKST

In force

73 min

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

258 
FZAK52 PAFC 010017
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010130-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 981 mb low 380 nm north of Shemya weakens as it moves near
Kamchatka Tue morning and dissipates. A 967 mb low 360 nm south of
Shemya moves 245 nm west of Shemya early Tue morning and then 
moves over Kamchatka Tue afternoon. A 994 mb low 150 nm south of 
Unalaska moves over Saint Paul Island at 992 mb Tue morning and 
then dissipates over the central Bering Tue evening. A 949 mb low 
290 nm south of Adak moves over Adak at 950 mb early Wed morning 
and then moves 230 nm north of Adak at 954 mb Wed afternoon. 

$$

PKZ150-010130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the evening. Seas 13 
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 25 ft.

$$

PKZ155-010130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt except 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 27 ft.

$$

PKZ160-010130-
Bristol Bay-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.WED...E wind 30 kt.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-010130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-010130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-010130-
Unalaska Bay-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain and snow
showers.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-010130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt except variable 10 kt E of Unalaska. Seas 
12 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 33 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ173-010130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 21 ft after
midnight. Snow.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ174-010130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 33 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-010130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-010130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft building to 33 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.WED...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-010130-
Adak to Kiska-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft Bering side...21 ft Pacific side. Widespread rain and snow 
showers.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-010130-
Kiska to Attu-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-010130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-010130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt.
.WED...E wind 25 kt.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ181-010130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-010130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
317 PM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 30 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas in ice free waters 19 ft subsiding to 13 ft after midnight.
Heavy freezing spray near ice edge N of 60N.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Heavy freezing
spray near ice edge N of 60N E of 177W. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray near ice edge N of 60N E of 177W..
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Jan 31, 4:41 AM AKST, 10 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKST Mon Jan 31 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

This morning on satellite imagery, there is a mature low north of
the Adak with an occluded front bisecting the Bering. There is a
second low south-southwest of Cold Bay. There is an area of high
pressure from the Bering Strait to Southcentral Alaska.
Additionally, freezing fog has been detected this morning over
portions of Cook Inlet, Knik Arm and Turnagain Arm. One sliver of
the jet is south of Cold Bay with a magnitude of 90 knots. There
is a second jet core over the northwest Pacific with a magnitude
of 160 knots. On ASCAT (Advanced Scatterometer) an area of gale
force winds that was detected west of the Pribilof Islands
associated with a 974 mb surface low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good agreement with the major synoptic features
through 36 hours. There are some minor differences with the
track and intensity of the next surface low in the northwest
Pacific which could impact the timing of precipitation. The main
forecast challenge will be the fog areas in Southcentral which is
an area where the models struggle. This is the second morning in a
row that fog has developed in Anchorage and Knik Arm.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Again on satellite imagery (Nighttime Microphysics RGB)
fog/low stratus has developed over Knik Arm, Cook Inlet and
Turnagain Arm. Overnight, the fog has been ebbing and flowing
over PANC and at one point was down to 1/4 SM in visibility. The
fog activity over Southcentral Alaska is actively being monitored
and amendments will be made as needed. The current expectation is
that the fog will clear by 21z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure centered over the Interior of the state and
extending over Southcentral has cleared out skies and dropped
temperatures to their lowest levels in about two weeks over much
of the region. The exception is near Anchorage where persistent
fog has kept temperatures a little warmer. What is different from
yesterday morning for this upper Cook Inlet fog and stratus
regime is that yesterday it was almost all thick stratus with
almost no fog at sea level. This morning is it mostly fog with
much thinner stratus. This is allowing temperatures to be lower
than yesterday, but also may allow for a better chance for
clearing without the thick stratus. We shall see.

The next system will bring a front into Kodiak overnight which
will then overspread clouds across all of SOuthcentral by Tuesday
afternoon. There was some question yesterday how far north this
front will bring clouds and precipitation and it looks to be
farther north than what we were looking at yesterday.
Precipitation type will mostly just be an issue for Kodiak Island
overnight and perhaps the very southernmost tip of the Kenai
Peninsula Tuesday. For Kodiak it looks like a short burst of snow
early this evening will change to rain by late evening with the
rain heavy at times overnight. There is a lot of warm air aloft
with this system but the surface front itself will stall out over
the northern Gulf and keep a tight temperature gradient over the
north Gulf coast which should keep precipitation all snow along
the north Gulf coast through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Active weather is on its way to Southwest Alaska for the short
term. A low traveling northwards across the Bering drags
weak shortwaves along the Southwest Coast through today.
Resultant offshore flow will keep conditions cold and clear into
the evening hours. A second North Pacific low pushes towards the
southern Bering tonight, its front reaching the Bristol Bay coast
by this evening. A surge of warm air advects over the coast,
bringing areas of rain, freezing rain and possibly sleet.
Primarily, affected areas will be the Kuskokwim Delta, from Bethel
west, and Dillingham and areas north and west. Iliamna to Port
Heiden (including King Salmon) will likely see very little in the
way of snow or freezing rain as warmer air is expected to produce
plain rain for these areas. There is still some uncertainty
associated with the warm air mass, since a deeper warm layer will
promote more freezing rain versus a shallower layer that will
produce more sleet/rain- snow mix. Additionally, the more warm air
that is mixed in will result in less snowfall/snow accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A series of lows move across the Bering through mid week. The
first of which is a vertically stacked low currently located just
west of Saint Paul. Lingering light rain showers remain over the
Eastern Aleutians, Southern AKPen, and the Pribilofs, with gusty
high end gale force winds along the northern Bering this morning.
The system moves off to the north by this evening. Two more North
Pacific lows push northwards on opposite ends of the Aleutians
tonight. The low near Shemya brings gale force winds and light
rain/snow showers to the Western Aleutians tonight and exits off
to the north by tomorrow morning. The second low is tracking
towards the AKPen, bringing a swatch of warmer air along its
front. Rain will be the primary precipitation type for the
Southern AKPen, with freezing rain along the Southwest Coast.
Gusty gale force winds are likely through Bristol Bay and out of
Shelikof Strait, but overall, precipitation remains the highest
impact for this system. A fourth system out of the North Pacific
moves over the Central Aleutians late Tuesday night and will bring
impactful weather to the Aleutian Chain by Tuesday night. Expected
impacts include rain or a rain/snow mix (all snow for the higher
elevations) and high end gale force winds along the front.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Wednesday through Friday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

Gale force winds in the northern and western Gulf with localized
storm force winds in favored barrier jet areas diminish quickly on
Wednesday as a low exits into the eastern Gulf. The forecast for
Thursday and Friday is less certain with a series of systems
moving up from the Pacific. Portions of the Gulf may see another
round of gales on both days, with a similar but weaker barrier jet
setup possible on Thursday giving way to some potential for more
widespread westerly gales and gap winds Friday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A strong low over the central Aleutians will produce widespread
gales across the central Bering/Aleutians Wednesday morning.
Storm force winds will also be likely near the center of the low.
Hurricane force gusts appear less likely now as the low is
expected to occlude and start weakening before reaching the
Aleutians. Southerly gale force gap winds can be expected east of
the low through the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN. Winds move with the
low into the western Bering late Wednesday into Thursday and
diminish below gale force by Thursday afternoon as the low exits
westward. Seas may exceed 20 ft in the vicinity of the low. The
northern Bering will likely see persistent northeasterly gales
before they decrease in coverage beginning Thursday afternoon.

Confidence is lower regarding the evolution of other features
which will impact wind and wave across the Bering/Aleutians.
A swath of easterly gales will be possible in the eastern Bering
and Bristol Bay from Wed afternoon into Thursday morning as
another low lifts northward across the AKPEN. By Friday morning,
another North Pacific low may impact the eastern Aleutians/AKPEN,
bringing the possibility for gales with some chance for storm
force winds and seas in excess of 20 ft near its center.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The prominent feature in the long term will be the 300 mb North
Pacific jet and placement south of the Aleutians; an ideal
location to generate multiple lows that will cycle through the
Bering. On Thursday, model solutions show a broad 500 mb trough
over the Bering and an upper level ridge over Siberia. A second
upper level ridge over the Alaska Panhandle early Thursday quickly
moves east as the first of several upper level shortwaves drive
across the Bering from west to east. Supported by the 300 mb jet,
multiple surface lows will lift from the North Pacific into the
eastern Bering Thursday into Friday, keeping an active weather
pattern in place for Southwest Alaska through the end of the
week. Southcentral will also see an active pattern with this setup
as each low gradually tracks eastward. By late Friday, model
solutions are hinting at the possibility for a deep fetch of
southerly flow lifting into Southcentral, however confidence is
low as agreement between solutions remains poor. In summary, the
synoptic setup is trending toward a more active pattern for the
southern half of the state for the end of the week and into next
weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 155 161.
MARINE...Storm 131. Gale 411 412 413 414 150 160 165 174 175 176
177 178 179 180 185 351 119 120 130 138 139. Heavy Freezing Spray
185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
MARINE/LONG TERM...KO

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2022Every storm warning in 2022

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.