Storm Warning 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

963 
FZAK51 PAFC 100044
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-101400-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 966 mb low 135 nm southeast of Kodiak City moves to 5 nm 
east of Augustine Island at 987 mb Mon night, then dissipates. 
Another 981 mb low enters the southern Gulf near 55N 144W Mon 
morning. This low then treks to 61N 147W at 991 mb Tue morning.

$$

PKZ119-101400-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt near the coast in the
evening. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft subsiding to 14 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. S of Middleton Island E wind 15 kts
becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ120-101400-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of Resurrection Bay in 
the evening. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ121-101400-
Resurrection Bay-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts 
to 50 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 ft. Freezing
spray in the evening. Snow changing to rain overnight.
.MON...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain with snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ125-101400-
Prince William Sound-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of Valdez Arm in the
evening. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ126-101400-
Port Valdez-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-101400-
Valdez Narrows-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-101400-
Valdez Arm-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 6 ft after midnight. Freezing spray 
in the evening. Snow, mixing with rain overnight.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-101400-
Passage Canal-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 35 kt near Whittier in the evening. Seas 2 ft building 
to 4 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 4 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-101400-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft. and rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-101400-
Barren Islands East-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt in the evening becoming N 30kt. Seas 16 ft. 
Snow with rain.
.MON...E wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ132-101400-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. N of Dangerous Cape, NW wind 25 kt in the
morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ136-101400-
Chiniak Bay-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-101400-
Marmot Bay-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft 
after midnight. Snow.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-101400-
Shelikof Strait-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft subsiding to 7 ft after midnight.
.MON...N wind 30 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-101400-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-101400-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ141-101400-
Kachemak Bay-
344 PM AKST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

793 
FZAK51 PAFC 101257
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-110145-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 979 mb low at 100 nm southeast of Kodiak City moves to 60 nm 
southwest of Homer at 985 mb this evening, then dissipates. Weak high
pressure builds over the Gulf through Tue.

$$

PKZ119-110145-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft...except 22 ft near Kayak Island in the morning. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 13 ft.
Rain.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ120-110145-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt...except NE along the coast early. Seas 17 
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ121-110145-
Resurrection Bay-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
30 kt early. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ125-110145-
Prince William Sound-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-110145-
Port Valdez-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
Snow, mixing with rain in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ127-110145-
Valdez Narrows-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt early diminishing to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
Freezing spray in the morning. Snow, mixing with rain in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-110145-
Valdez Arm-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ129-110145-
Passage Canal-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt early diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft 
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain
and snow.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-110145-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain and snow. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ131-110145-
Barren Islands East-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ132-110145-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ136-110145-
Chiniak Bay-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ137-110145-
Marmot Bay-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ138-110145-
Shelikof Strait-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft
subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ139-110145-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
in ice free waters 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft after midnight. Snow.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas in
ice free waters 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

PKZ140-110145-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ141-110145-
Kachemak Bay-
357 AM AKST Mon Jan 10 2022

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 PM AKST Sat Jan 8 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The change in pattern is starting to get underway over Southern
Alaska as the cold 500 mb low moves from the Copper River Basin
this morning to the Kuskokwim Delta coast tomorrow. There is an
upper level wave associated with this low that is bringing some
snow to the North Gulf coast and as far north as Anchorage this
afternoon. This wave is prominent on satellite imagery and you
can tell it is not a big feature and skies should at least
partially clear out behind it. Southwest Alaska is also seeing
an increase in cloud cover in conjunction with this upper level
low approaching the area.

The next low which will become the main weather feature for the
next few days can be seen on satellite near 50N 150W this
afternoon and headed north on the satellite loop.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement into the middle of next
week. A point of interest in the short term is with the upper
level disturbance that moved across the north Gulf coast this
morning and headed due west toward Southwest Alaska. Both NAM and
GFS show this wave best at 700 mb and are very close in track and
timing. The NAM does have it a little stronger by tomorrow morning
so that may determine whether there is enough juice left in it to
bring a little snow to Southwest AK or just some clouds.

For the second half of next week prefer the way the GFS and
GEM models respect the ridge over mainland Alaska and elongate
over the eastern Bering Sea in response to it instead of the
ECMWF solution of pushing a concentric, but weakening low, into
it over the Gulf. That is a ways off but is worth watching as it
gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and north winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3/Tonight
through Tuesday)...

A broad longwave trough will begin to take hold of the north
Pacific Monday as a series of shortwaves move north into the Gulf.
The resultant increased cloud cover and a marginal airmass
replacement will help to warm temperatures across the region
after one last cold morning Monday. Expect highs to climb into
the mid to upper 20s from the Cook Inlet region north to the
Susitna Valley with single digits to teens in the Copper River
Basin. The Prince William Sound will increase into the low to
mid 30s by Monday with Kodiak possibly reaching into the 40s.

The front extending north from a slow moving, but moderately
strong north Pacific low will reach Kodiak Island early Sunday
morning and encompass the majority of the Gulf coast Sunday
afternoon. Precipitation type for Kodiak is expected to remain
snow, with northerly to northeasterly winds helping to reinforce
cold air. With moderately warm air at the surface, blowing snow
should not be an issue at sea level, though periods of heavy snow
may reduce visibility at times. There is still some uncertainty in
snow totals depending on the exact track of the low. Most of the
precipitation for this event will remain confined to coastal
areas and the Chugach mountains, though areas in the southern
Copper Basin may see some spill over near Chitina and the
Edgerton Highway cutoff. Downsloping appears likely from Kenai
north through Anchorage and into the Mat Valley though brief
periods of light snow are possible at times as weak shortwaves
ride over the mountains. Large discrepancies exist between global
models and high resolution models for QPF over the mountains. With
moderate east to southeast winds aloft, this forecast package
represents higher-end totals for QPF and snow over high terrain
and the Western Prince William Sound. As the event progresses,
warm air will slowly make its way into the Prince William Sound.
Expect the transition to rain or a rain snow mix to reach Cordova
and Whittier early Monday morning, spreading into the eastern
Turnagain Arm and Valdez area shortly after. With cold air
continuing to funnel out of the Copper Basin and into Valdez,
a snow and freezing rain mix is possible for Valdez on Monday.

By Tuesday another shortwave will make its way in from the north
Pacific, which will transition the flow aloft from southeasterly
to south to southwesterly. This will help but an end to the
downsloping, providing a better chance for snow for the Cook Inlet
region north into the Susitna Valley as the shortwave quickly
moves through. Accumulation will remain light, with a quick shot
of 0.5 to 1.0 inches for these areas. Colder air will accompany
this shortwave, which should transition areas with mixed
precipitation types or rain back to snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Day 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

An upper-level shortwave will move across Southwest Alaska this
evening through tonight. With this, a chance for snow showers for
Bristol Bay is possible as the shortwave passes through. However,
any precipitation would have to overcome very dry air, so its a
virga scenario with no precipitation actually likely reaching the
ground. Models are showing snow showers possibly extending into
the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley tonight into
Sunday, but again, the dry air in place will most likely dominate
resulting in some clouds at best, with a slight possibility of a
light snow shower. As the aforementioned upper-level shortwave
makes its way through the Southwest, pressure gradients will
tighten and result in gusty northeasterly winds tonight through
Sunday. Sustained northeasterly to northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts as high as 40 mph are possible. Consequently, with the
combination of cold arctic air in place and high winds, wind
chills this evening through Sunday afternoon may reach as low as
35 below zero at times. Monday night into Tuesday, a stronger
shortwave with more moisture will approach from the southwest and
could produce more widespread snow shower activity over the area
due to more moisture availability.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Day 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

Northeasterly flow is expected to dominate across much of the
Bering Sea region throughout the weekend and into early next
week. This will act as a barrier and keep storms south over the
North Pacific or moving northward into the Gulf of Alaska.
Currently, a low is sitting in place just south of the Aleutian
Chain and is expected to remain there for the next couple days.
Its front will continue to impact the coastal marine waters and
the Aleutian islands as the low keeps the area unsettled, so an
occasional period of precipitation of snow/rain over the course
of the weekend is possible. Widespread gales paint much of the
central Bering and extend all the way to the Pacific side of the
central Aleutians as the aforementioned low sits in place. Heavy
Freezing Spray will impact much of the Bering Sea as the Arctic
air flows off the ice and over the relatively warm open water.
Heavy freezing spray will remain a concern through the weekend
and into early next week along with increased wave heights. A
potential for cloud streets to form with some snow showers
impacting Adak and Shemya is also possible in the coming days.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Tuesday through Thursday)...

Gulf of Alaska: Gales and large seas of more than 20 ft will
build across the Gulf starting Wed night through Thu night as a
result of a strong frontal system from the North Pacific. This
phenomenon will also bring widespread gusty winds across the
western Gulf through Prince William Sound. With systems moving
up from the Pacific, air temperatures will be fairly warm and
freezing spray should not be much of a threat.

Bering Sea: A relatively quiet forecast period with benign seas
are expected through at least Wed afternoon. A strong North
Pacific front could potentially usher gales and large seas south
of the Alaska Peninsula and parts of the eastern Aleutians by Thu
morning through Thu night. A trough over the Bering could enhance
gales farther north and west of Pribilof Islands starting Tue
night through Wed morning. For now, will maintain small craft
conditions until gain better confidence in the large scale pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A predominant upper ridge over the Mainland could stick around
for several days as it latches to a strong upper high over British
Columbia, leading to clear to partly cloudy skies north of
Talkeetna and parts of Copper River Basin through the long term.
A series of short-wave troughs lifting north and across the Gulf
of Alaska and the southern mainland of Alaska could bring light
precipitation across the region with a rain/snow mixed near the
coastal areas including the northern Gulf. A split Arctic low
aloft skirts right through the southern Bering but north of the
western Aleutians by Fri morning. Meanwhile, a North Pacific low
and its associated front aims for the western Aleutians Fri night.
As these separate developing systems interact, the potential for
elevated weather and hazardous marine conditions could take place
between Fri and Sat, starting from the western Aleutians eastward.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Watch 131 Thompson Pass.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 119 126 127 128 130 139 141
                                      165 179 185.
         Storm Warning 130.
         Gale Warning 119 120 127 128 131 132 136 137 138 139
                      150 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
MARINE/LONG TERM...CB