Storm Warning 168, NWS Anchorage, AK

363 
FZAK52 PAFC 041253 CCA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-050100-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 980 mb low 110 nm west of Saint Paul exits into the Gulf of 
Anadyr Sun afternoon. A North Pacific low moves 200 nm north of
Shemya at 975 mb Sun evening and then moves 220 nm west of Saint
Matthew Island as it exits into the northern Bering Mon morning. 
Its front crosses the Bering through Monday evening.

$$

PKZ150-050100-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas 17 ft.
Rain.
.MON...W wind 15 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-050100-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, SE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt
increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-050100-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-050100-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 30 kt
diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 25 kt increasing
to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-050100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-050100-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-050100-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ173-050100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-050100-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 50 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-050100-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-050100-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 55 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-050100-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-050100-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-050100-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft 
building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 50 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft. 
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-050100-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.MON...S wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-050100-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-050100-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 19 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon. 
Snow.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft. 
Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

893 
FZAK52 PAFC 050028
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-051315-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 mb low 300 nm north of Amchitka Sun evening moves north as it 
exits into the northern Bering Mon morning. Its front moves eastward
across the Bering through Mon evening.

$$

PKZ150-051315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ155-051315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, SW wind 20 kt
increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ160-051315-
Bristol Bay-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft. Snow with rain.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-051315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. From Port Moller E, SW wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt except S 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 12 ft.
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-051315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 16
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-051315-
Unalaska Bay-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft
subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-051315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-051315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-051315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-051315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-051315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-051315-
Adak to Kiska-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-051315-
Kiska to Attu-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft Bering side...23 ft Pac side.
Rain showers.
.MON...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-051315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-051315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-051315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-051315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
328 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17
ft. Snow with rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Sat Dec 3 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level ridge stretches across the Alaska mainland
with a shortwave over the southern mainland moving over the top of
the ridge as it heads east. This shortwave is mainly producing
clouds with spotty showers across the Kuskokwim Delta. Farther
west a frontal boundary extends across the western Bering and
central Aleutians as it moves eastward. This front is producing
rain and gale force winds with 35 to 45 knots winds reported
across the Bering and Aleutians. A low pressure system south of
the eastern Aleutians continues to slowly move north. Temperatures
across the Aleutians range from the 30s at Shemya with 40s across
the rest of the chain and the AKPen. Southwest Alaska has warmed
up with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Across Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim River Valley it is a bit cooler with teens
at Sleetmute and 20s elsewhere. Across Southcentral temperatures
range from the 20s and 30s near the coast and higher elevations
above 1,000 feet with teens and single digits elsewhere.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement through Monday.
However, there is disagreement with the progress of the front and
triple point low forming near the Kenai Peninsula Tuesday which
will affect the timing of the snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

The upper level ridge overhead will continue to slowly break down
and shift east as a series of shortwaves move into Southcentral
through Tuesday. Expect temperatures to slowly warm over the
coming days as cloud cover caps radiative cooling over most areas.
A fairly impressive inversion has set up as well with
temperatures warming to above freezing between 2700ft and 6700ft
on this afternoon's sounding in Anchorage.

A front and weak surface low will move into the region on Monday
bringing widespread light snowfall to the majority of Southcentral.
Upper level dynamics are fairly unimpressive, but the lack of
mid-level wind should also prevent any downsloping. There remains
some minor uncertainty on the start time of precipitation of a few
hours, but snowfall totals between 1 and 3 inches are expected
throughout the region on Monday. Southern coastal areas like Homer
and Cordova will likely see rain from this event, with Seward
expecting a mix of rain and snow.

A more robust system will move in on Tuesday, with good upper
level dynamics and jet support. Uncertainty in where this system
will set up as it crosses the Aleutian Range remains very high in
both surface low location and upper level vorticity fields.
Confidence is high that most of Southcentral will receive snow
through Wednesday, but timing and amounts are highly uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the mainland and
the global models are trending towards this ridge amplifying this
forecast period. On satellite imagery there is a mature low over
the Bering that is moving towards Southwest Alaska. Also on
satellite imagery (CIMSS mimic PW)there are two distinct modified
tropical fetches entrained into this low complex. Both of these
plumes literally extend back towards Hawaii. By Sunday the leading
edge of the precipitation shield will be at Nunivak and Bristol
Bay. The Alaska Peninsula will receive a hefty amount of
precipitation with this event. By Monday morning this front will
already be inland. Expect a short break. Then a second front will
come barreling across the Bering and is headed towards Western
Alaska...with the leading edge of the precipitation front at the
Nunivak and Y-K Delta Monday night. This too will be a fast moving
storm and the front will be inland by Tuesday morning. Expect
unsettled weather for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A progressive pattern is on tap. Back to back fronts will push
across the Bering this forecast period. Expect unsettled weather
complete with gusty winds, rough seas and . Expect gales out of
the bays and passes for the eastern Aleutians. In the wake of the
second frontal passage zonal flow will set up over the Bering late
Tuesday with isolated showers. The seas surface temperatures over
the Bering vary from 6 degrees Celsius near Attu to 0 degrees
Celsius near Nunivak. In satellite imagery, ice is beginning to
form around St Lawrence Island and along portions of Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

An active pattern continues into next weekend as a parade of
storms transit the Bering/Aleutians and Southern Alaska. The
long term forecast begins on Wednesday with an upper-level trough
and associated surface low over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska.
There is general consensus for the storm to track to the
Panhandle by Thursday morning and spread northwesterly gale-force
winds across the northern and western Gulf. There is also
increasing confidence that Southcentral can expect cooler
temperatures and precipitation (likely snow, given colder
temperatures aloft) on Wednesday. In the wake of the low, an
upper-level ridge is advertised to build east over the Mainland,
tapering off precipitation across Southern Alaska for Thursday.

Out west over the Bering and Aleutians, models still struggle with
the track of a large North Pacific low. The deterministic GFS and
Canadian models both support the low center tracking into the
central Bering by Thursday afternoon, after which time agreement
begins to diverge between these two models. The GFS proceeds to
take the low across the Alaska Peninsula Friday morning and then into
the central Gulf by Saturday morning. The Canadian solution
splits the main low into two separate centers by Friday morning,
with one center lingering over the eastern Bering and the other
tracking from the Gulf to the Panhandle by Saturday morning. The
deterministic ECMWF is the outlier solution in that it tracks the
North Pacific low along the Aleutians through Friday morning and
then develops a stronger low center near the southern Panhandle by
Saturday morning. The ECMWF is also the weakest solution in terms
of central pressure and wind strength. Despite the ongoing
forecast uncertainties with this North Pacific low, there is
general consensus at this time for winds to reach at least gale-
force and for central pressure to hover near 980 mb during the
low's strongest stage.

There is very weak agreement for another low to inhabit the Bering
on Saturday; however, there are currently considerable differences
in this feature's strength and track. Thus, forecast confidence
decreases significantly towards the end of the long term forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 150-172 174 178-185.
		 Storm 173 175 176 177
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...AF