Storm Warning 158, NWS Anchorage, AK

209 
FZAK62 PAFC 050012
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-051400-
312 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 mb low at 56N 178E Sun evening will moves north as it exits 
into the northern Bering Mon morning. Its front moves eastward 
across the Bering through Mon evening. 

$$

PKZ411-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
312 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 18 to 23 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
312 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
312 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 to 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-051400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
312 PM AKST Sun Dec 4 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt becoming S 35 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas
11 to 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

261 
FZAK62 PAFC 051204
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
304 AM AKST Mon Dec 5 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-060200-
304 AM AKST Mon Dec 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low at 59N 179E exits into the northern Bering Mon 
morning. Its front moves across the Bering through Monday 
evening. A series of weak lows cross the Bering through Tue
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
304 AM AKST Mon Dec 5 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt becoming 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 to 24 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
304 AM AKST Mon Dec 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
304 AM AKST Mon Dec 5 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 21 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-060200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
304 AM AKST Mon Dec 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 to 45 kt becoming SW 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Sat Dec 3 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level ridge stretches across the Alaska mainland
with a shortwave over the southern mainland moving over the top of
the ridge as it heads east. This shortwave is mainly producing
clouds with spotty showers across the Kuskokwim Delta. Farther
west a frontal boundary extends across the western Bering and
central Aleutians as it moves eastward. This front is producing
rain and gale force winds with 35 to 45 knots winds reported
across the Bering and Aleutians. A low pressure system south of
the eastern Aleutians continues to slowly move north. Temperatures
across the Aleutians range from the 30s at Shemya with 40s across
the rest of the chain and the AKPen. Southwest Alaska has warmed
up with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Across Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim River Valley it is a bit cooler with teens
at Sleetmute and 20s elsewhere. Across Southcentral temperatures
range from the 20s and 30s near the coast and higher elevations
above 1,000 feet with teens and single digits elsewhere.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement through Monday.
However, there is disagreement with the progress of the front and
triple point low forming near the Kenai Peninsula Tuesday which
will affect the timing of the snow.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

The upper level ridge overhead will continue to slowly break down
and shift east as a series of shortwaves move into Southcentral
through Tuesday. Expect temperatures to slowly warm over the
coming days as cloud cover caps radiative cooling over most areas.
A fairly impressive inversion has set up as well with
temperatures warming to above freezing between 2700ft and 6700ft
on this afternoon's sounding in Anchorage.

A front and weak surface low will move into the region on Monday
bringing widespread light snowfall to the majority of Southcentral.
Upper level dynamics are fairly unimpressive, but the lack of
mid-level wind should also prevent any downsloping. There remains
some minor uncertainty on the start time of precipitation of a few
hours, but snowfall totals between 1 and 3 inches are expected
throughout the region on Monday. Southern coastal areas like Homer
and Cordova will likely see rain from this event, with Seward
expecting a mix of rain and snow.

A more robust system will move in on Tuesday, with good upper
level dynamics and jet support. Uncertainty in where this system
will set up as it crosses the Aleutian Range remains very high in
both surface low location and upper level vorticity fields.
Confidence is high that most of Southcentral will receive snow
through Wednesday, but timing and amounts are highly uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the mainland and
the global models are trending towards this ridge amplifying this
forecast period. On satellite imagery there is a mature low over
the Bering that is moving towards Southwest Alaska. Also on
satellite imagery (CIMSS mimic PW)there are two distinct modified
tropical fetches entrained into this low complex. Both of these
plumes literally extend back towards Hawaii. By Sunday the leading
edge of the precipitation shield will be at Nunivak and Bristol
Bay. The Alaska Peninsula will receive a hefty amount of
precipitation with this event. By Monday morning this front will
already be inland. Expect a short break. Then a second front will
come barreling across the Bering and is headed towards Western
Alaska...with the leading edge of the precipitation front at the
Nunivak and Y-K Delta Monday night. This too will be a fast moving
storm and the front will be inland by Tuesday morning. Expect
unsettled weather for the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A progressive pattern is on tap. Back to back fronts will push
across the Bering this forecast period. Expect unsettled weather
complete with gusty winds, rough seas and . Expect gales out of
the bays and passes for the eastern Aleutians. In the wake of the
second frontal passage zonal flow will set up over the Bering late
Tuesday with isolated showers. The seas surface temperatures over
the Bering vary from 6 degrees Celsius near Attu to 0 degrees
Celsius near Nunivak. In satellite imagery, ice is beginning to
form around St Lawrence Island and along portions of Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

An active pattern continues into next weekend as a parade of
storms transit the Bering/Aleutians and Southern Alaska. The
long term forecast begins on Wednesday with an upper-level trough
and associated surface low over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska.
There is general consensus for the storm to track to the
Panhandle by Thursday morning and spread northwesterly gale-force
winds across the northern and western Gulf. There is also
increasing confidence that Southcentral can expect cooler
temperatures and precipitation (likely snow, given colder
temperatures aloft) on Wednesday. In the wake of the low, an
upper-level ridge is advertised to build east over the Mainland,
tapering off precipitation across Southern Alaska for Thursday.

Out west over the Bering and Aleutians, models still struggle with
the track of a large North Pacific low. The deterministic GFS and
Canadian models both support the low center tracking into the
central Bering by Thursday afternoon, after which time agreement
begins to diverge between these two models. The GFS proceeds to
take the low across the Alaska Peninsula Friday morning and then into
the central Gulf by Saturday morning. The Canadian solution
splits the main low into two separate centers by Friday morning,
with one center lingering over the eastern Bering and the other
tracking from the Gulf to the Panhandle by Saturday morning. The
deterministic ECMWF is the outlier solution in that it tracks the
North Pacific low along the Aleutians through Friday morning and
then develops a stronger low center near the southern Panhandle by
Saturday morning. The ECMWF is also the weakest solution in terms
of central pressure and wind strength. Despite the ongoing
forecast uncertainties with this North Pacific low, there is
general consensus at this time for winds to reach at least gale-
force and for central pressure to hover near 980 mb during the
low's strongest stage.

There is very weak agreement for another low to inhabit the Bering
on Saturday; however, there are currently considerable differences
in this feature's strength and track. Thus, forecast confidence
decreases significantly towards the end of the long term forecast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 150-172 174 178-185.
		 Storm 173 175 176 177
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PJS
LONG TERM...AF