Storm Warning 154, NWS Anchorage, AK

716 
FZAK52 PAFC 141231
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-150115-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1006 mb low 60 nm S of Togiak moves inland Tue night. A 977 mb 
Kamchatka low moves to 390 nm NW of Attu Island at 976 mb Tue 
morning. A 990 mb North Pacific complex low weakens to 1003 mb as it 
moves to 330 nm S of Adak by Wed morning. A series of fronts will 
move across the western Bering Sea through Wed morning.

$$

PKZ150-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt becoming NE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ155-150115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-150115-
Bristol Bay-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable less than 10 
kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE wind 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft increasing to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing 
spray.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-150115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt except NW 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ170-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-150115-
Unalaska Bay-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-150115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-150115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-150115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-150115-
Adak to Kiska-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-150115-
Kiska to Attu-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft. 
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-150115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-150115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-150115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-150115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
331 AM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, N wind 15 kt W of Saint Matthew 
Island, S wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 
ft.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 20 kt increasing to
30 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 45 kt 
increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Seas 11 ft building to 21 ft 
after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island, S wind 50 kt W of 
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

001 
FZAK52 PAFC 150112
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-151415-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A series of fronts will move across the western and central Aleutians
from this afternoon through Wednesday morning. 

$$

PKZ150-151415-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ155-151415-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind increasing to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-151415-
Bristol Bay-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 5 ft. Heavy freezing spray after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-151415-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ170-151415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-151415-
Unalaska Bay-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 7 
ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-151415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ173-151415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-151415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-151415-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. E of Atka, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ176-151415-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. E of Atka, SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. E of Atka, SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-151415-
Adak to Kiska-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 21 ft.
Rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-151415-
Kiska to Attu-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft.
Rain.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-151415-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-151415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-151415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-151415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
412 PM AKST Mon Nov 14 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 20 kt increasing to
30 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, SE wind 40 kt
increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft building to 19 ft
after midnight. Rain and snow.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 50 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... S 45 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

760 
FZAK52 PAFC 151317
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160215-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front over the Central Bering extending from a Kamchatka low will
weaken in place through Wednesday morning. A weak low moving over
the Alaska Peninsula will merge with the Kamchatka low 180 nm W of
St. Matthew at 1002 mb Thursday morning.

$$

PKZ150-160215-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160215-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160215-
Bristol Bay-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-160215-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160215-
Unalaska Bay-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
6 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160215-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming variable 10 in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160215-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160215-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160215-
Adak to Kiska-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 22
ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160215-
Kiska to Attu-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 50 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 22
ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160215-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-160215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ185-160215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
417 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 50 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

802 
FZAK52 PAFC 160043
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161345-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A front extending over the Western and Central Aleutians will
weaken through Thursday morning. A weak low moving over the 
Alaska Peninsula will merge with a Kamchatka low 180 nm west of 
St. Matthew at 1002 mb Thursday morning. The low tracks north and 
exits the Bering Sea by Thursday afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161345-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161345-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161345-
Bristol Bay-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ165-161345-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161345-
Unalaska Bay-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161345-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161345-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161345-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt late. Seas 12 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161345-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 18 
ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161345-
Adak to Kiska-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 22
ft. Rain.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161345-
Kiska to Attu-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161345-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161345-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ181-161345-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ185-161345-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
343 PM AKST Tue Nov 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... SE 45 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 25 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
847 AM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A closed upper high exists over the northern Bering with a broad
trough to it's south extending from the Kamchatka Peninsula south
to 40N and then due north into Southcentral. Multiple embedded
shortwaves exist within the trough, with the most notable features
being a low over Bristol Bay and a developing low in the North
Pacific south of Kodiak Island. Southerly winds/gap winds
throughout Southcentral have kept overnight temperatures in the
mid 30s to mid 40s despite areas of clear skies. On radar a broad
precipitation shield from the low south of Kodiak has reached the
Gulf Coast. Over Southwest, northerly flow from Togiak north and
west has kept temperatures cold, with wind chill over the
Kuskokwim Delta between -5 and 5 degrees Fahrenheit. Over the
Bering, cold air streaming south through the Bering Strait has
lead to cloud streets and below freezing temperatures for the
Pribilof Islands.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in moderate agreement in the short term but continue to
have differences in timing and speed of propagation of a north
Pacific low that is expected to move up the Cook Inlet and into
the Interior this afternoon and into the evening. Upon model
initialization, a narrow low with two centers develops near 50N,
with the faster solutions developing the northern low into the
dominant system and the slower solutions developing the southern
solutions into the dominant system. Overall the models have a
similar overall storm system/structure, but the timing of certain
impacts such as wind and precipitation varies by up to 5 hours
depending on the solution. Out west, models have finally locked in
on a solution for the Bristol Bay low with high confidence the
low will dissipate in place rather than moving inland. After the
Southcentral low, model agreement is good with high confidence of
warmer conditions persisting and a general drying trend for the
Southern Mainland as the northern Bering high shifts east.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will likely persist through the daytime
hours with flow aloft keeping the area downsloped. Turnagain Arm
winds are expected to weaken through the morning before becoming
northerly as a North Pacific low moves South of the Kenai
Peninsula and pulls winds down the inlet through the late
afternoon to evening hours. The low is then expected to pass over
the terminal as it moves north, which will bring a period of
strong southerly winds, rain and MVFR ceilings this evening.
During a short period of time just after the low passes overhead
gusts in the 30 to 35kt range are possible. There is some
uncertainty in the wind forecast in regards to timings and
strength, particularly between 0Z and 6Z as the low moves through.
After the low passes winds will remain southerly while slowly
diminishing.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

A low just to the south of Kodiak Island this morning will deepen
slightly as it takes a due north track up to the western Kenai Peninsula
midday then inland across the Susitna Valley late this afternoon.
There is some uncertainty in the speed of the low, but confidence
in the track and expected weather is higher. It's important to
note the environment this storm is moving into. As per the 12Z
Anchorage, aside from a shallow inversion near the surface, the
lower levels are well mixed and warm, with a freezing level over
3000 feet. This is quite representative of Southcentral as a
whole, where gusty winds overnight have maintained above freezing
temperatures across much of the region. While pressure gradients
will flip this morning in the Cook Inlet-Susitna Valley corridor,
causing a shift to northerly winds, there will be little change in
the overall environment. Meanwhile, warmer air and strong winds
will move in with the system. As a result, this will be primarily
a rain event for lower elevations of Southcentral.

With an overall fast movement of the low, weather conditions will
be fast changing through the day. The low does look a little
deeper than the previous forecast, so have strengthened winds
across the board, but especially over the northern Gulf and into
the Prince William Sound region. Winds will be further enhanced
through bays and passes and up in the mountains. Precipitation
will be heavy at times, but generally won't be long-lived in any
one location due to the fast northward progression of the low.
Lower elevations of Anchorage and the Mat Valley will largely be
downsloped due to very string low level southeasterly flow ahead
of the low. However, the approach of an upper level short-wave in
due south flow aloft combined with deep moisture transport from
the Pacific, can't completely rule out some light rain this
afternoon. As the low heads inland late this afternoon and
evening, downslope flow will end. Cold air advection induced
instability combined with some weak upper level waves will cause
showers to linger. With persistent strong low level flow, steadier
precipitation will persist tonight in the Susitna Valley and
eastern Prince William Sound (Valdez/Cordova area). Once again,
gusty winds will tend to maintain elevated temperatures. So
despite the cold air advection, the predominant precipitation-
type for areas at sea level will remain rain.

While the storm exits to the Alaska Interior tonight, upper level
cyclonic flow will persist through Monday, with precipitation
lingering in the aforementioned upslope areas. Still, expect most
of the region to dry out on Monday and winds to diminish. High
pressure will then build over mainland Alaska Monday night through
Tuesday, leading to offshore flow and cooling temperatures. A
warm front extending from a deep low over the Pacific will lift
north and west across the Gulf of Alaska Monday night through
Tuesday night. The front looks pretty weak, so winds and
precipitation with this are highly unimpressive. Most likely this
will produce a brief period of rain for Kodiak Island. Some
precipitation could reach the Kenai Peninsula, depending on the
position of the ridge. With warming temperatures aloft, expect
strengthening temperature inversions over Southcentral and
increased chance for fog as we continue through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

Morning satellite reveals a weak trough of low pressure remains
just offshore of Bristol Bay. Areas of rain and snow continue lift
northward across Southwest as a result. Temperatures have been
warm enough from King Salmon to Iliamna to maintain rain while
snow has been observed from Dillingham to Bethel to Aniak. Light
precipitation chances will linger through tonight before gradually
tapering off by Monday afternoon as low pressure over Bristol Bay
fills in and dissipates. Meaningful snow accumulations are not
anticipated. Finally, as high pressure over the Bering eventually
slides into Central Alaska by Tuesday, precipitation chances for
Southwest should come to an end.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday)...

A longwave ridge of high pressure continues over much of the
Bering Sea with a persistent weak trough of low pressure remaining
offshore of Bristol Bay. Between these two features a belt of
northeasterly small craft and gale force winds will continue to
stream over the YK Delta, across Nunivak Island, and into the
Pribilof Islands through tonight. Winds are forecast to diminish
later on Monday as the low over Bristol Bay fills in and
dissipates. Of greater significance, a strong upper low is
expected to move into the western Bering early on Monday. With its
arrival increasing gales are forecast to expand across much of
the western Bering and Western Aleutians along with developing
storm force winds west of Saint Matthew Island through Tuesday
night. Resultant peak seas of 20+ feet are forecast from the
Western Aleutians, northward.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Looking ahead at the longterm forecast, a strong ridge builds
over the southern Mainland while a cutoff low lingers south of the
Gulf of Alaska. Benign conditions under the stagnant ridge and
across the southern Mainland are expected to persist into the
weekend though this pattern may lead to widespread fog at lower
elevations. Above average daytime highs and overnight lows are
also anticipated through the long term. There is average
confidence that a front may clip the north Gulf coast on Saturday
morning.

Out west, an upper-level trough and attendant surface low inhabit
the western Bering and Aleutians on Wednesday. However, decent
model spread still exists with the low track and strength which
will affect associated impacts. The GFS and Canadian solutions are
currently the strongest as they advertise winds up to storm force
between Shemya and Adak and over parts of the Bering. The
Canadian low is much quicker in lifting to the north to Russia
already by Wednesday morning, while the GFS low does not reach
Russia until Thursday. The EC is overall the slowest and weakest
solution as it produces only small crafts by the time it tracks
near Adak late Wednesday morning, weakening as it moves into the
Bering thereafter. Fortunately, there is better model agreement on
another low set to reach the western Aleutians for Friday and
Saturday. At this time, there is consensus between the GFS and
Canadian for widespread rain and gale force winds to accompany the
low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 125 131 139 351 352 177 178 180 181
411 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CJ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...AF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
224 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

AKZ101-111-142100-
Anchorage-Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Anchorage, Eagle River, Indian, Eklutna,
Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
224 PM AKST Sun Nov 13 2022

...ICE JAMS IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MAT-SU VALLEY...

The abnormally cold temperatures the past few weeks caused ice
formation on area rivers and streams across the Anchorage and Mat-
Su valleys. This ice formation is causing ice jams, and has led
to localized overflow flooding in the vicinity of the jam. Warming
weather this weekend has continued to enhance ice movement on the
waterways, and continued low land overflows are expected through
the first part of this week.

Currently, widespread ice jams are being reported on streams in
Anchorage and across other waterways including Wasilla Creek.

With temperatures at or above freezing, water levels may rise
further due to runoff from snow melt. As the week progresses, ice
jam issues should begin to subside as the warmer temperatures
erode lingering ice cover, which will allow water levels to
decrease.