Storm Warning 148, NWS Anchorage, AK

209 
FZAK52 PAFC 061124
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-070015-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1004 mb North Pacific low moves to 85 nm northwest of Saint 
Paul Island at 985 mb by Mon morning and then over the Bering 
Strait at 979 mb by Tue morning. Its front tracks from the 
central Bering and Aleutians east to the Southwest mainland by 
Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-070015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-070015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, E
wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
SE wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt after midnight. Seas 10 ft 
building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt becoming W 25 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 23 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-070015-
Bristol Bay-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Gusts to 60
kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Gusts to 60 kt in the morning. Seas 14 ft 
subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain with freezing rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-070015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. From Port Moller E, S wind 40 kt becoming SW
25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ170-070015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft building to 17 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
17 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-070015-
Unalaska Bay-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-070015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 26 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt becoming SW 35 kt after midnight. Seas
24 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ173-070015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-070015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 50 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
28 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ175-070015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 40 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-070015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 22 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ177-070015-
Adak to Kiska-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
Bering side...15 ft Pac side.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft Bering side... 14 ft Pac side.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-070015-
Kiska to Attu-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ179-070015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-070015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 45 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 17 ft
subsiding to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ181-070015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-070015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
224 AM AKST Sun Nov 6 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...S wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...W 30 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad arctic trough is draped over Mainland Alaska with
multiple lows embedded within it. Upstream of the aforementioned
trough is a ridge of high pressure situated over the central
Bering/Aleutians. Cold air continues to build into the Copper
River Basin from the northeast which will begin to push through
Thompson Pass, the Chickaloon Pass, and out of the Matanuska
River. Due to this push of cold air, strong gusty winds are
already being observed with gusts of 43 kts in the port of Valdez
and in the Matanuska Valley. These winds and gusts will continue
to increase even more throughout the day. As such, High Wind
Warnings for the Matanuska Valley and Northeast Prince William
Sound, including Valdez and Thompson Pass, have been issued.
Further west, a warm front is situated over the western Aleutians
and continues to push warmer temperatures to the central Bering
and will move toward Southwest Alaska later this weekend.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement through the
weekend. Model spread grows slightly with the subtle features
such as the timing of weak upper-level waves and how they may
impact the gusty gap winds that will occur the next few days along
the Gulf coast as well as the Matanuska Valley. This will be the
main forecast challenge in the coming days until precipitation
type rears its head in Southwest Alaska early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds will be gusty today
with gusts reaching 25 to 30 kt and then slowly decreasing for
Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 2: Today
through Sunday night)...

A strong pressure gradient along with cold air filtering down from
the north will keep strong gap winds going through Sunday morning.
A shortwave moving down from the Yukon along with an upper level
jet moving over the area will reinforce the cold air today and
allow winds to strengthen especially across the Matanuska Valley
and around the Valdez to the Thompson Pass area where high wind
warnings are in effect for these locations through Sunday morning
with gusts ranging from 60 to 80 mph. Otherwise Kodiak City,
Seward, and Whittier will also have winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph
through this evening. On Sunday a ridge moves across the area and
will allow the winds to relax and weaken through the day. By
Sunday night a frontal system will begin moving towards the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island with gusty easterly winds and rain
and snow. Stay tuned as we monitor this next frontal system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Dry conditions and clear skies today through a big chunk of Sunday
as an upper level ridge cross over Southwest Alaska. Late Sunday
evening, the leading front extending from a North Pacific low
moving into the southern Bering pushes onto the Southwest coast.
There is a warmer air mass just behind the front that pushes into
Southwest Monday afternoon. Northerly winds transition to
southeasterly and become gusty through the night Sunday into
Monday and will remain gusty through the early portions of next
week. A strong moisture feed will bring about heavy snow to
Bristol Bay late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Snow switches
to a rain/snow mix late Monday morning, quickly becoming all rain
as temperatures rapidly warm above freezing by Monday afternoon
along the Southwest coast. Snow is expected elsewhere across
Southwest Alaska beginning late Sunday night as well, but will be
considerably less intense. There is still some uncertainty
regarding snow amounts, particularly from Dillingham north to New
Stuyahok and west to Togiak, who may see ranges anywhere from 8 to
12 inches of new snow. The Alaska Peninsula and Kuskokwim Delta
is expecting 1 to 3 inches of new snow, and 2 to 5 inches is
possible in the lower Kuskokwim Valley. Additionally, while this
is going to be a heavy, wet snow, there is still potential for
some blowing snow that can cause visibility issues at times.
Forecast confidence remains low to moderate at this point for
whether blowing snow will reach advisory level due to heavy, wet
snow being less easily transportable. Finer details will continue
to be assessed along with new, updated model data.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Upper level ridge slips off to the east today, pushing onto the
Southwest Mainland, ahead of an approaching North Pacific low. A
weakening front remains stationary over the western/northern
Bering Sea, producing widespread gale force winds through today.
The North Pacific low moves south of the Central Aleutians early,
early Sunday morning. The eastern edge carries areas of
southeasterly, storm force winds that will push across the Eastern
Aleutians Sunday morning, with high end gale force winds expected
along the southern Alaska Peninsula, including Cold Bay and King
Cove. Periods of storm force winds will persist through the gaps
and passes of the southern AKPen into Sunday night, diminishing by
early Monday morning. Additionally, heavy precipitation will
follow the associated front extending across the Central and
Eastern Aleutians, as well as up the Alaska Peninsula. Though mostly
rain is expected as a warmer air mass follows the front, there
will still be periods of snow or a rain/snow mix along the higher
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

General synoptic features and patterns are showing strong agreement
for Southern Alaska through the long-term period, with solutions
beginning to diverge more intensely by Friday morning. Tuesday
morning, a low moving eastward along the Aleutians will drive a
leading front up the Alaska Peninsula into Southcentral. A tighter
pressure gradient associated with this frontal boundary may give
rise to higher winds through the Barren Islands, into the Kenai
Peninsula, and Prince William Sound Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Currently, models advertise the aforementioned low to move
eastward from the Aleutians and into the Central Gulf by Wednesday
afternoon, keeping precipitation south of Southcentral Alaska.
This low however will still be providing an ample set-up for
stronger winds along coastal Southcentral. A ridge positioned
behind this low looks to do very little at halting the advancement
of a much stronger North Pacific low entering the western
Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon. Models often struggle on the
breakdown of these ridges and tend to break them down faster than
what occurs. That being said, models are converging on this solution
of a N Pac low coming into the Bering - which raises confidence.
Timing of this new low's entry into the Bering requires further
investigation. After entering the Bering models have very little
consensus on the behavior and track of the system.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning: 111, 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 170-172, 127.
		 Gale Warning: 119-121, 125-126, 128-132, 136, 138, 150, 155,
					   165, 173-180, 185, 351-352, 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...NSC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...CL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
142 PM AKDT SAT NOV 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PALMER                  61.60N 149.11W
11/05/2022  M53 MPH          MATANUSKA-SUSITNA  AK   ASOS

            PAAQ REPORTED 39 MPH GUSTING TO 53 MPH.

0115 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST VALDEZ                  61.13N 146.36W
11/05/2022  M66 MPH          CHUGACH            AK   ASOS

            PAVD REPORTED 25 MPH GUSTING TO 66 MPH.

&&