Storm Warning 147, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Nov 5, 2022, 2:43 AM AKDT (10:43 UTC)

Expired

Nov 5, 2022, 3:15 PM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

713 
FZAK52 PAFC 051043
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-052315-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure exits the eastern Bering through Sunday morning. A 
983 mb Sea of Okhotsk low extends a front that tracks into the 
central Bering for Sunday afternoon. This front connects to a 
1005 mb North Pacific low that tracks to 100 nm North of Seguam 
Island at 992 mb by Sunday night.

$$

PKZ150-052315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-052315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30 kt
becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt, Seas 8 ft building to 18 ft in the
afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, E wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 
kt in the afternoon, Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-052315-
Bristol Bay-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ165-052315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. From
Port Moller E, SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-052315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
7 ft.
.SUN...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-052315-
Unalaska Bay-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-052315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-052315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt becoming S 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-052315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 45 kt becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 28
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-052315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight. Seas 9
ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 40 kt becoming NW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-052315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ177-052315-
Adak to Kiska-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft Bering side...16 ft Pac side.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-052315-
Kiska to Attu-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-052315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ180-052315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ181-052315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-052315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
243 AM AKDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...S 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 16 ft building to 22 ft in the
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 4, 5:23 PM AKDT, 9 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 PM AKDT Fri Nov 4 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

It is a rather active pattern today with a low in the Gulf of
Alaska and another low tracking across Southwest mainland Alaska
as well. Yet another low is near Kamchatka with a front being
pushed over the Western Aleutians. Looking at the IR satellite it
is interesting to see the jet stream tracking well to the south
of Alaska with the cold air cumulus streaming off the Bering Sea,
around the low in the Gulf as well as into the north Pacific until
it gets near the jet stream. The front over the Western Aleutians
is much warmer and the start of a warm up that will move toward
Western Alaska later this weekend.

The low over Southwest Alaska has brought snow and blowing snow in
the gusty winds around it. The front is wrapped up pretty good for
such a compact low. This low is tracking quickly to the southeast
and will move over Kodiak Island this evening before moving out
into the Gulf of Alaska.

Cold air is building into the Copper River Basin from the
northeast which will begin to spill through Thompson Pass and the
Chickaloon Pass and out of the Matanuska River and increase winds
as it does so.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall synoptic agreement through the
weekend. Model spread grows slightly with the subtle features
such as the timing of weak upper-level waves and how they may
impact the gusty gap winds that will occur the next few days along
the Gulf coast as well as the Matanuska Valley. This will be the
main forecast challenge in the coming days until precipitation
type issues pop up in Southwest Alaska early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Northerly winds will become
gusty after 06Z this evening as a short-wave aloft drops through
and low level flow strengthens. Winds will strengthen further
during the day Saturday with passage of another short-wave, with
stronger winds mixing down from aloft. The terminal will be right
on the eastern edge of even stronger winds coming down Knik Arm
from the Matanuska Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 to 3)...

On satellite, a few clouds linger over the Copper River Basin as
a surface low continues to move east and weaken over the northern
Gulf of Alaska. A few clouds and brief periods of light snow near
Kodiak Island are due to a short-wave trough moving in from
Southwest Alaska. Otherwise, clear skies will continue across the
Susitna Valley, Anchorage, the Kenai Peninsula, and the coast as
high pressure builds across Southcentral. Colder temperatures and
dry weather will reinforce the development of strong winds,
especially through terrain gaps tonight through Saturday night.
Winds are expected to peak early Saturday afternoon as cold air
funnels through terrain and the upper level jet enhances north to
northeasterly gusty winds.

The High Wind Watches, both for the Valdez area and the Matanuska
Valley, have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings. Higher
confidence continues for the potential for high sustained winds
through Thompson Pass and the city of Valdez with gusts up to 80
mph. Although snow is not expected, snow already on the ground may
become lofted and drift along roadways that could reduce
visibility to a half mile at times. While models do not
necessarily depict the magnitude of these winds well, there is
plenty of evidence in the dynamic forcing mechanisms that increase
confidence of strong, gusty, and potentially damaging winds for
the Matanuska Valley. While gusts will likely reach 65 mph in many
locations, the exact magnitude realized from this is of moderate
confidence and 75 mph gust potential exists for exposed areas to
the north and northeasterly direction.

Winds will gradually diminish Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon, but strong winds may linger for the Valdez and
Thompson Pass area Sunday. Come Monday, winds will shift southerly
and precipitation chances increase along a front expected from
the west as another low develops. Kodiak could see precipitation
as early as Monday morning and spreading eastward into Southcentral
during the day. Temperatures will also shift in trend relatively
warmer with the system next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

A compact low pressure system currently positioned in the
Kuskokwim Valley is on track to move quickly into interior Bristol
Bay tonight. As this happens, bands of snow showers will taper
off by Saturday morning along with gusty northwesterly winds
winding down. Heading into the weekend, a ridge of high pressure
provides a brief break of drier weather under mostly clear skies.
Daytime temperatures will range in the 20s to 30s with overnight
lows in the teens to single digits. The ridge axis is expected to
shift eastward by early next week in response to a North Pacific
low lifting northward into the Bering Sea. The main front ahead of
the low will bring enough warmer air and gusty southeasterly
winds for precipitation type as rain for the Alaska Peninsula.
The low occludes as it lifts into the Bering Strait sometime
Monday afternoon. How much of the warmer air remains as the front
advances east into Southwest Alaska is the main forecast
challenge. The current forecast package has heavy wet snow for
interior Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta between Sunday night and
Monday afternoon, with snow amounts and winds reaching advisory
levels. Forecast confidence is low to moderate at the moment, so
stay tuned for the latest updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

For tonight, an elongated front extending ahead of a low pressure
system in eastern Russia continues to bring high end gales and
rain along the western Bering/Aleutians. Winds are expected to
subside with rain tapering off sometime late Saturday night.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure is providing benign conditions
for the rest of the Bering/Aleutians. The next weather feature is
associated with a North Pacific low lifting north of Atka early
Sunday morning. In addition to moderate to heavy rain, south-
southeasterly storm force winds through the central/eastern
Aleutians will initially accompany this system. The winds will
then decrease to gales as the low tracks west of the Pribilof
Islands on Sunday night. Unsettled conditions will likely persist
through early next week under a general troughing pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

General synoptic features and patterns are showing strong agreement
for Southern Alaska through the long-term period, with solutions
beginning to diverge more intensely by Friday morning. Tuesday
morning, a low moving eastward along the Aleutians will drive a
leading front up the Alaska Peninsula into Southcentral. A tighter
pressure gradient associated with this frontal boundary may give
rise to higher winds through the Barren Islands, into the Kenai
Peninsula, and Prince William Sound Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Currently, models advertise the aforementioned low to move
eastward from the Aleutians and into the Central Gulf by Wednesday
afternoon, keeping precipitation south of Southcentral Alaska.
This low however will still be providing an ample set-up for
stronger winds along coastal Southcentral. A ridge positioned
behind this low looks to do very little at halting the advancement
of a much stronger North Pacific low entering the western
Aleutians by Wednesday afternoon. Models often struggle on the
breakdown of these ridges and tend to break them down faster than
what occurs. That being said, models are converging on this solution
of a N Pac low coming into the Bering - which raises confidence.
Timing of this new low's entry into the Bering requires further
investigation. After entering the Bering models have very little
consensus on the behavior and track of the system.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 111 131.
MARINE...Storm Warning 127 174 178.
         Gale Warning 119 120 121 125 126 128 129 130 131 132
                      136 137 138 150 155 160 165 172 173 176
                      177 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...VR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
LONG TERM...CL

Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2022Every storm warning in 2022

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.