Storm Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

826 
FZAK51 PAFC 252356
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261245-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 989 mb low 50 nm Northwest of Kodiak City moves to 35 nm East 
of Middleton Island at 957 mb on Wed afternoon, then shifts to 20 
nm West of Cape Spencer at 972 mb by Thu afternoon. Its front 
extends across the Gulf through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-261245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind increasing to 40 kt. Near the coast, E wind 
increasing to 50 kt during the evening, then diminishing to 30 kt
late. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft after midnight. Rain.
.WED...W wind 35 kt, except NE 30 kt N of Middleton Island. Seas 16 
ft. Widespread rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ120-261245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 14 ft. 
Rain.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-261245-
Resurrection Bay-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain and snow showers.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-261245-
Prince William Sound-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. Rain and 
snow.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-261245-
Port Valdez-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-261245-
Valdez Narrows-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-261245-
Valdez Arm-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ129-261245-
Passage Canal-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt becoming variable less than 10 kt late.  
Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...W wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-261245-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.WED...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 12 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 60 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ131-261245-
Barren Islands East-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14
ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ132-261245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain showers.
.WED...W wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ136-261245-
Chiniak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Gusts to 55 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 7 
ft after midnight.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ137-261245-
Marmot Bay-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 40 
kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ138-261245-
Shelikof Strait-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 10 ft late.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ139-261245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Snow and rain.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ140-261245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Snow.
.WED...N wind 15 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-261245-
Kachemak Bay-
356 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NW 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft. Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

239 
FZAK51 PAFC 261159
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-270030-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 968 mb low at 30 nm SE of Montague Island Wed morning weakens 
to 979 mb as it moves to 70 nm SE of Montague Island Fri morning.

$$

PKZ119-270030-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S of Middleton Island, W wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 16 ft. N of Middleton Island, NE wind 30 kt
becoming becoming NW in the afternoon. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ120-270030-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ121-270030-
Resurrection Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas building to 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ125-270030-
Prince William Sound-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon, 
strongest W of Naked Island. Seas 4 ft, building to 7 ft 
W of Naked Island in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ126-270030-
Port Valdez-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt becoming NE 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. 
Seas building to 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-270030-
Valdez Narrows-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT AND THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-270030-
Valdez Arm-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT AND THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ129-270030-
Passage Canal-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 25 kt near Whittier increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Gusts to 
40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ130-270030-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt early, then becoming NW and increasing 
to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 11 ft in the 
afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 60 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ131-270030-
Barren Islands East-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind increasing to 55 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 20 ft.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ132-270030-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 45 kt, except W 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. 
Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ136-270030-
Chiniak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ137-270030-
Marmot Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the morning. 
Seas 6 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ138-270030-
Shelikof Strait-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 40 kt late. Gusts to 55 kt 
out of bays and passes late afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 70 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes 
late afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...W wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ139-270030-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt becoming Variable 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray along 
western bays. 
.THU...NW wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray along western bays in the morning. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ140-270030-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 3 ft subsiding.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
Freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the 
morning.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ141-270030-
Kachemak Bay-
359 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind to 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 2 ft, except building to 5 ft 
outer bay.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft, except 5 ft outer bay in the 
morning.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKDT Mon Oct 24 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Aloft, the weather depiction is a bit messy. Arctic high pressure
entrenches the region north of Barter Island, which is north of
Alaska's arctic coastline. A strong 180+ knot, North Pacific jet
stretches from the Philippines northeast near Kamchatka, aiming
towards the Aleutians. At the nose of this jet is an upper level
trough, off of the western coast of Kamchatka. At the surface, low
pressure continues to deepen north of Shemya this afternoon.
Showers and gusty winds are being observed from a cold front that
extends southwest of this low. To the east is a warm front that
occludes and extends north of a North Pacific high and across the
eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Short term models are in good agreement with the basic synoptic
features. All models develop and deepen the surface low that is
north of Shemya. There is very little difference in the timing,
strength and track of this feature. All develop a triple point low
Tuesday evening in the Gulf of Alaska and move it east as the
parent low slides across Bristol Bay. Small differences in
mesoscale features play out with the usual challenges, but will be
discussed in the respective short term forecast sections.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Thursday)...

High pressure associated with a ridge situated over the interior
of Alaska and low pressure located over the Gulf, will aid in
maintaining localized gap winds along the coast tonight through
Tuesday morning. A strong short-wave trough located in the eastern
Bering will amplify tonight and progress quickly across the
Alaska Peninsula and move into southern Alaska for Tuesday. Light
precipitation will reach Kodiak Island tonight along a leading
warm front. As the upper-level trough reaches Southcentral,
precipitation will begin to overspread into the region from
southwest to northeast throughout the day. An occluded surface low
will reach the Southwest coast Tuesday and will hinder the
advection of warm air into Southcentral. Meanwhile, a triple point
low will form over the northwest Gulf Tuesday afternoon and will
also block warmer air from continuing northward into Southcentral.
Therefore, temperatures will stay cool enough for precipitation
to stay snow across much of the region. The exception will be for
the southern Kenai Peninsula and Gulf coast. These areas will warm
up enough to see a transition to rain Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Due to the progressive nature of the flow, the concern
for downsloping over Anchorage, the Mat-Su, and western Kenai
Peninsula will be hindered and not as impressive with this system
as it would be for previous systems this time of year. As a
result, expect some downslope drying as the low passes south of
Seward late Tuesday afternoon-early Tuesday evening, but this
should be short-lived as favorable southerly flow aloft will aid
in bringing periods of snow to the usual downslope areas. A Winter
Weather Advisory continues to be in effect for the western Kenai
Peninsula from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday. This is due
to the initial short- wave tracking up Cook Inlet Tuesday which
will aid in the development of a heavier band of snow over the
Inlet and the Sterling Highway corridor, extending up into the
southern to western Susitna Valley. The heaviest snow amounts will
likely be from Soldotna northward to Nikiski and then shift
eastward to Prince William Sound Tuesday night as the upper-level
trough and triple point low continue to progress eastward. Periods
of light precipitation will linger across the region Wednesday as
the best forcing for heavier snow tracks eastward out of the
area. Colder air will pool into the region behind the exiting
storm system, which will help dry things out late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the redevelopment of offshore gap
winds will reoccur through mountain passes and coastal bays, while
short-waves tracking into the Gulf from the Bering will lead to
stronger winds across the western Gulf and Kodiak Island waters
through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strengthening low in the central Bering will move eastward
towards Southwest Alaska tonight and tomorrow. This is a fast
moving system. This storm will result in widespread gusty winds, a
wintry mix, increased wave heights and the possibility for high
surf from Kipnuk to Togiak...and potentially other portions of
Bristol Bay. Expect a batch of unsettled weather most of this
forecast period. When the upper low moves inland expect light
light showers into Thursday morning. For the entire event,
accumulations will not be significant. Also noteworthy, in the
wake of the frontal passage expect widespread cold air advection
with temperatures plummeting to the the teens and 20s by Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a mature low moving across the Bering with an estimated
surface pressure of 997 mb. This low has a tight pressure gradient
force associated with it. Gale to storm force winds and areas of
moderate to heavy rain will accompany this system. Also expect
enhanced seas. The upper level jet that is driving this system has
a jet core of 175 knots. This is a fast moving system. The
surface low will be near Nunivak Tuesday morning. In the wake of
the frontal passage expect widespread northerly flow and cold air
advection. Also a transient ridge will move over the Western
Aleutians on Wednesday. By Thursday morning a new Pacific low will
be on the horizon for Attu Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Colder than normal temperatures across southern mainland Alaska
continue to be the main headline through the extended period. Low
temperatures in the 10s are expected for inland locations through
Monday, with single digit temperatures in the Copper River Basin
and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Most precipitation will fall as snow,
with the exception of coastal areas as a persistent longwave
trough situated over the state draws cold air across the forecast
area for the duration of the long term forecast. A surface low in
the Gulf of Alaska aiding this cold advection will weaken on
Friday, allowing north/northwesterly gap winds out of bays and
passes along the Gulf coast to relax going into the weekend.

Beyond the large-scale pattern, there continues to be significant
spread in model guidance for the long term forecast, lending low
confidence to any particular evolution of features. Model guidance
hints at the development of two streams of activity, a northern
one across the Bering and a southern one across the North Pacific,
with the balance between which of these is expected to be
stronger remaining highly uncertain at this time. Two lows, one
from each stream, or some permutation of them, looks to traverse
from the central/western Bering Sea on Friday into the vicinity of
the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday or Monday. All the while, northerly
flow across the eastern Bering appears highly favored, reinforcing
the cold air mass in place. While the southern mainland is
expected to be mostly dry on Friday, uncertainty increases for the
weekend depending on the strength of the northern feature. A
stronger northern low pressure system would likely mean another
round of snow for Southwest Alaska, with even more uncertainty
further east. Overall however, a drier period of weather is the
favored solution across the domain through early next week, with
the exception of the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula, which
can expect rain.

By Sunday, another potential pair of features enters the picture
in the western Bering and North Pacific, with the potential to
reverse the flow across the western Bering and bring warmer air to
the region on southerly flow for Monday. Further east, low
pressure in the Gulf once again enhances gap winds on Sunday and
Monday out of bays and passes along the Gulf coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 121.
		 High Surf Advisory: 155, 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 165, 180, 414.
		 Gale Warning: 119, 125, 132, 150, 155, 160, 170-177, 179,
					   181, 185, 352, 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...NS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...CQ