Gale Warning 571, NWS Anchorage, AK

367 
FZAK61 PAFC 252343
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-261330-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 989 mb low at 58N 153W moves to 59N 145W at 957 mb on Wed 
afternoon, then shifts to 58N 137W at 972 mb by Thu afternoon. Its
front extends across the Gulf through Thu afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-261330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 10
to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.

$$

PKZ352-261330-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
343 PM AKDT Tue Oct 25 2022

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 22 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 26 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt. Seas 20 to 28 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 23 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 21 to 29 ft.

$$

326 
FZAK61 PAFC 261151
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-270130-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 968 mb low at 59N 147W Wed morning weakens to 979 mb as it 
moves to 59N 147W Fri morning.

$$

PKZ351-270130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...NW wind 30 to 50 kt becoming W 25 to 35 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ352-270130-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
351 AM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 21 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 17 to 25 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 18 to 26 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 45 kt. Seas 22 to 28 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
400 PM AKDT Mon Oct 24 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Aloft, the weather depiction is a bit messy. Arctic high pressure
entrenches the region north of Barter Island, which is north of
Alaska's arctic coastline. A strong 180+ knot, North Pacific jet
stretches from the Philippines northeast near Kamchatka, aiming
towards the Aleutians. At the nose of this jet is an upper level
trough, off of the western coast of Kamchatka. At the surface, low
pressure continues to deepen north of Shemya this afternoon.
Showers and gusty winds are being observed from a cold front that
extends southwest of this low. To the east is a warm front that
occludes and extends north of a North Pacific high and across the
eastern Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Short term models are in good agreement with the basic synoptic
features. All models develop and deepen the surface low that is
north of Shemya. There is very little difference in the timing,
strength and track of this feature. All develop a triple point low
Tuesday evening in the Gulf of Alaska and move it east as the
parent low slides across Bristol Bay. Small differences in
mesoscale features play out with the usual challenges, but will be
discussed in the respective short term forecast sections.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Tonight through Thursday)...

High pressure associated with a ridge situated over the interior
of Alaska and low pressure located over the Gulf, will aid in
maintaining localized gap winds along the coast tonight through
Tuesday morning. A strong short-wave trough located in the eastern
Bering will amplify tonight and progress quickly across the
Alaska Peninsula and move into southern Alaska for Tuesday. Light
precipitation will reach Kodiak Island tonight along a leading
warm front. As the upper-level trough reaches Southcentral,
precipitation will begin to overspread into the region from
southwest to northeast throughout the day. An occluded surface low
will reach the Southwest coast Tuesday and will hinder the
advection of warm air into Southcentral. Meanwhile, a triple point
low will form over the northwest Gulf Tuesday afternoon and will
also block warmer air from continuing northward into Southcentral.
Therefore, temperatures will stay cool enough for precipitation
to stay snow across much of the region. The exception will be for
the southern Kenai Peninsula and Gulf coast. These areas will warm
up enough to see a transition to rain Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Due to the progressive nature of the flow, the concern
for downsloping over Anchorage, the Mat-Su, and western Kenai
Peninsula will be hindered and not as impressive with this system
as it would be for previous systems this time of year. As a
result, expect some downslope drying as the low passes south of
Seward late Tuesday afternoon-early Tuesday evening, but this
should be short-lived as favorable southerly flow aloft will aid
in bringing periods of snow to the usual downslope areas. A Winter
Weather Advisory continues to be in effect for the western Kenai
Peninsula from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM AKDT Wednesday. This is due
to the initial short- wave tracking up Cook Inlet Tuesday which
will aid in the development of a heavier band of snow over the
Inlet and the Sterling Highway corridor, extending up into the
southern to western Susitna Valley. The heaviest snow amounts will
likely be from Soldotna northward to Nikiski and then shift
eastward to Prince William Sound Tuesday night as the upper-level
trough and triple point low continue to progress eastward. Periods
of light precipitation will linger across the region Wednesday as
the best forcing for heavier snow tracks eastward out of the
area. Colder air will pool into the region behind the exiting
storm system, which will help dry things out late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Meanwhile, the redevelopment of offshore gap
winds will reoccur through mountain passes and coastal bays, while
short-waves tracking into the Gulf from the Bering will lead to
stronger winds across the western Gulf and Kodiak Island waters
through the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strengthening low in the central Bering will move eastward
towards Southwest Alaska tonight and tomorrow. This is a fast
moving system. This storm will result in widespread gusty winds, a
wintry mix, increased wave heights and the possibility for high
surf from Kipnuk to Togiak...and potentially other portions of
Bristol Bay. Expect a batch of unsettled weather most of this
forecast period. When the upper low moves inland expect light
light showers into Thursday morning. For the entire event,
accumulations will not be significant. Also noteworthy, in the
wake of the frontal passage expect widespread cold air advection
with temperatures plummeting to the the teens and 20s by Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

There is a mature low moving across the Bering with an estimated
surface pressure of 997 mb. This low has a tight pressure gradient
force associated with it. Gale to storm force winds and areas of
moderate to heavy rain will accompany this system. Also expect
enhanced seas. The upper level jet that is driving this system has
a jet core of 175 knots. This is a fast moving system. The
surface low will be near Nunivak Tuesday morning. In the wake of
the frontal passage expect widespread northerly flow and cold air
advection. Also a transient ridge will move over the Western
Aleutians on Wednesday. By Thursday morning a new Pacific low will
be on the horizon for Attu Island.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Colder than normal temperatures across southern mainland Alaska
continue to be the main headline through the extended period. Low
temperatures in the 10s are expected for inland locations through
Monday, with single digit temperatures in the Copper River Basin
and Lower Kuskokwim Valley. Most precipitation will fall as snow,
with the exception of coastal areas as a persistent longwave
trough situated over the state draws cold air across the forecast
area for the duration of the long term forecast. A surface low in
the Gulf of Alaska aiding this cold advection will weaken on
Friday, allowing north/northwesterly gap winds out of bays and
passes along the Gulf coast to relax going into the weekend.

Beyond the large-scale pattern, there continues to be significant
spread in model guidance for the long term forecast, lending low
confidence to any particular evolution of features. Model guidance
hints at the development of two streams of activity, a northern
one across the Bering and a southern one across the North Pacific,
with the balance between which of these is expected to be
stronger remaining highly uncertain at this time. Two lows, one
from each stream, or some permutation of them, looks to traverse
from the central/western Bering Sea on Friday into the vicinity of
the Gulf of Alaska by Sunday or Monday. All the while, northerly
flow across the eastern Bering appears highly favored, reinforcing
the cold air mass in place. While the southern mainland is
expected to be mostly dry on Friday, uncertainty increases for the
weekend depending on the strength of the northern feature. A
stronger northern low pressure system would likely mean another
round of snow for Southwest Alaska, with even more uncertainty
further east. Overall however, a drier period of weather is the
favored solution across the domain through early next week, with
the exception of the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula, which
can expect rain.

By Sunday, another potential pair of features enters the picture
in the western Bering and North Pacific, with the potential to
reverse the flow across the western Bering and bring warmer air to
the region on southerly flow for Monday. Further east, low
pressure in the Gulf once again enhances gap winds on Sunday and
Monday out of bays and passes along the Gulf coast.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory: 121.
		 High Surf Advisory: 155, 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning: 165, 180, 414.
		 Gale Warning: 119, 125, 132, 150, 155, 160, 170-177, 179,
					   181, 185, 352, 411-413.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...NS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS
LONG TERM...CQ