Storm Warning 117, NWS Anchorage, AK

567 
FZAK52 PAFC 092357
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-101315-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 mb low 160 nm southwest of Saint Paul Island moves to 60 nm
south of Togiak at 994 mb on Mon morning. The low then moves 
inland near Naknek at 998 mb on Mon afternoon. Weak low pressure 
tracks across the southern Bering from Mon afternoon through Tue 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-101315-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft subsiding to 15 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-101315-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 20 kt 
after midnight. Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft after midnight.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-101315-
Bristol Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt becoming NW 25 kt in the afternoon, except E wind
30 kt west of Nushagak Peninsula before noon. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-101315-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 45 kt, Seas 18 ft. From Port Moller E, SW wind 25 kt
becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon, Seas 7 ft building to 15 ft in
the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 14 ft subsiding to 9 ft after midnight.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ170-101315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-101315-
Unalaska Bay-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft building to 5 ft after midnight.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
.TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-101315-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft
subsiding to 14 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-101315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-101315-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-101315-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-101315-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
20 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...S wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-101315-
Adak to Kiska-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ178-101315-
Kiska to Attu-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-101315-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 40 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ180-101315-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 20 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ181-101315-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ185-101315-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
357 PM AKDT Sun Oct 9 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
817 PM AKDT Sat Oct 8 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level trough is situated along an axis that extends
over the west coast of Alaska from Norton Sound to Bristol Bay.
This trough has continued to "dig" farther south as it tracks from
west to east. Farther east, an upper level ridge is in place over
the Alaska panhandle. At the surface, a strengthening low
associated with the upper level trough is centered near the
Alaska Peninsula over Bristol Bay. Strong pressure gradients have
allowed gusty south to southeasterly winds to persist across
Southcentral, including Portage Valley, Turnagain Arm, Anchorage
Hillside, and Knik River Valley. Due to downsloping, many
locations in the Anchorage Bowl have remained dry however across
the Inlet to the west, moderate to heavy rain remains in place as
southerly flow advects moisture northward over the southern
Susitna Valley. Additionally, moderate to heavy rain is filling in
over the Alaska Peninsula both along the Bristol Bay coast as
well as over interior locations. Gusty southerly winds and rain
persist along the northern Gulf coast including Prince William
Sound as the digging upper level trough works to strengthen the
pressure gradient and advect moisture northward.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions remain in mostly good agreement for the short term
forecast. Run to run consistency has confirmed a more southerly
track for both the low in the Gulf as well as the incoming Bering
low. Forecast challenges remain regarding the arrival of a colder
airmass over Southcentral Tuesday. Currently the NAM solution
brings a surge of cold air at 850 mb while the GFS is more
conservative. This difference, combined with the timing of
precipitation, will drive the potential snowfall amounts
Southcentral sees late Monday into early Tuesday. Confidence in
amounts remains low as there are several finer details that need
to be worked out. Finally, regarding the Bering low, there is good
agreement on the location and track of the low as it moves
eastward Sunday night, however the 18Z NAM run is coming in a
little bit faster than the EC/Canadian solution. Models
consistently show impressive cold air advection on the backside
of this Bering low, which introduces the possibility for gusty NW
winds along the central and eastern Aleutians on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist. Conditions may drop
to MVFR in passing rain showers. Gusty southeasterly Turnagain
Arm winds will taper briefly during the afternoon hours today.
Another surge of gusty winds is expected between 4Z-6Z before all
winds eventually diminish by the early morning hours Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Saturday through Monday)...

A general rainy pattern persists for much of Southcentral with
intermittent precipitation in the Anchorage Bowl due to downsloping
with a cross- barrier flow. The flow will shift gradually tonight
and bring some light precipitation into the Anchorage Bowl
overnight into Sunday. The low pressure system providing this
precipitation pattern will move East out of the area starting
Sunday afternoon, bringing the precipitation out with it. The next
system to enter the region will be a low approaching Kodiak, from
the Alaska Peninsula Monday morning. This low will push into
Southcentral Monday afternoon with some lingering precipitation
overnight.

The feature on the forefront of our minds today is the gusty
conditions found all across Southcentral today. Gusty conditions
higher than expected began this morning in places such as
Turnagain Arm, Anchorage Hillside, Whittier, and Gulkana, are
persisting, and will continue into tonight. A High Wind Warning
was issued for the Anchorage Hillside with observed gusts higher
than 65 kts this afternoon. A lull is expected late this afternoon followed
by a resurgence in the evening. Winds currently expected to remain
gusty in the Copper River Basin for much of the weekend, with
gusts picking up Monday afternoon.

Potential snowfall has been a focus for the next few days. As far
as tonight and tomorrow are concerned, the chance of snow across
Southcentral has been lowered significantly. Temperatures
associated with our current low pressure system are well above
freezing at the 850 mb level, dashing much of the snow concern
tonight. Tomorrow the temperatures will be lower, but the
precipitation will be out of the area. Monday will see lower
temperatures, as well as the next low pressure system, kicking off
some precipitation Monday. This set up seems to provide the most
potential Monday night, with snow accumulation currently possible
in the Anchorage hillside, the northern Susitna Valley and along
the northern Richardson highway near Paxton.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2)...

A trough of low pressure continues to dig across Southwest this
evening with scattered showers and widespread cloud cover. This
activity is expected to shift eastward and out of the region later
tonight as the trough and its associated surface low push into
the Gulf of Alaska. Gradual clearing from west to east is
forecast; however, the resulting pressure gradient from the
departing low will promote gusty northwesterly winds over much of
Southwest through the morning hours on Sunday. The windiest
conditions are anticipated over interior Bristol Bay where gusts
to over 40 mph will be possible. A colder air mass will move into
Southwest through the overnight hours and Sunday morning low
temperatures across Southwest are expected to dip down into the
lower 30's. Normally this would promote a concern for snow, but it
looks like most of the precipitation will have moved out of the
area before freezing temperatures occur. Thus, any snow at all
will be relegated largely to the higher elevations.

By Sunday night, shortwave ridging is forecast to move across
Southwest in advance of the next approaching frontal system, which
may allow Monday morning lows to drop down into the low to mid
20's. A front will reach the coasts of the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay during the late morning hours on Monday with
increasing temperatures and showers. Enhanced westerly winds are
expected to contribute to enhanced surf along the Alaska Peninsula
from Egegik, southward. A high surf advisory has replaced the
previous Coastal Flood Watch as the track of the low has trended
further south. It is in effect from Monday morning into Monday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2)...

A trough of low pressure is pushing across the Alaska Peninsula
and into the Gulf this evening. Small craft northwesterly winds
and some embedded gales are occurring from Nunivak Island into the
Eastern Aleutians. The threat for gales will persist into the
overnight hours, especially along the Bristol Bay Coast down into
the lower Alaska Peninsula. Gales with storm force gusts will be
common through the gaps and passes of the AKPEN from King Cove,
eastward to Kodiak Island. Further west, from the Pribilofs into
the western Bering, calmer conditions are noted. Though this will
be short- lived as the next upper low and front push into the
Western Aleutians tonight. Low pressure is forecast to track along
and just north of the Aleutians with gale force winds and higher
gusts through Sunday afternoon. Strong cold air advection on the
backside of the low will allow for storm force winds gusting to to
as high as 65 knots from Dutch Harbor to Cold Bay by Monday. 20
foot seas previously confined to the Pacific side of the Aleutians
through Sunday, should expand to the Bering Side Monday morning
as the center of the low tracks east of the Pribilofs and
eventually into Bristol Bay by Monday afternoon. High wind
warnings are in effect for the Central and Eastern Aleutians on
Monday.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Cold air is going to move across Southcentral. Expect multiple
lows this forecast period. The latest run of the
GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are reasonably clustered Wednesday through
Friday. The major trend suggests that there will be abrupt change
from above normal temperatures to wintery conditions for
Anchorage. There is a closed low settling over the high latitudes
of the Arctic Ocean that will favor the rotation of a series of
progressive troughs underneath into the Brooks Range. The models
continue to have a highly amplified pattern with the longwave
trough over the Bering.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 101, High Wind Watch 181 185, High Surf
         Advisory 161.
MARINE...Storm Warning 130 131 170.
         Gale Warning 119 120 125 132 138 139 141 150 155 160 165
         171-180 351 352 411-414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BL
LONG TERM...PS