Storm Warning 10, NWS Anchorage, AK

352 
FZAK52 PAFC 021308
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-030145-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure remains over the central Bering through Tue 
morning. A front over the Western Aleutians remains nearly 
stationary through Tue morning. A trough of low pressure moves 
over the Alaska Peninsula into the eastern Bering Tue morning.

$$

PKZ150-030145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 65 kt, except 55 kt E of Chirikof Island. Gusts up 
to 85 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 25 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 60 kt, except 45 kt E of Chirikof Island. Gusts up
to 80 kt out bays and passes. Seas 17 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ155-030145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 60 kt, except 40 kt W of the Shumagin Islands. Gusts
up to 80 kt out of bays and passes. Seas 22 ft, except 15 ft W of 
the the Shumagin Islands. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 55 kt. W of the Shumagin Islands, N wind 40 kt
increasing to 55 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 75 kt out of bays and
passes. Seas 21 ft, except 14 ft W of the Shumagin Islands. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 55 kt. E of the Shumagin Islands, N wind 55 kt 
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 75 kt out of bays
and passes. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 10 ft in the afternoon. W of the
Shumagin Islands, seas 10 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon. 
Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ160-030145-
Bristol Bay-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.

$$

PKZ165-030145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 40 kt, except 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 16 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ170-030145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ171-030145-
Unalaska Bay-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10 
ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-030145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. W of Unalaska, NE wind 15 kt increasing to 30
kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-030145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-030145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-030145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ176-030145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ177-030145-
Adak to Kiska-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft Bering side...30 ft Pacific 
side. Rain.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft Bering side...32 ft Pacific side. 
Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ178-030145-
Kiska to Attu-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-030145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ180-030145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-030145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-030145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
408 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...SE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray E of Saint
Matthew Island.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray E of Saint
Matthew Island.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad trough with a deep polar low seen on water vapor imagery
continues to move south towards the northern Gulf coast. A surge
of Arctic air wrapping around the north and west side of this low
is spilling across the Alaska state with 850 mb temperatures
ranging -20 to -30 degree Celsius. A cold, dry airmass coupled
with mostly clear skies and strong radiational cooling is allowing
overnight temperatures to drop in the single digits to below zero
across the lower and higher elevation regions. As the trough axis
shifts over the southern mainland, a combination of colder air
advection and strong dynamic support is creating conditions
favorable for strong north-northwesterly winds across the coastal
areas and interior valleys as well as through the gaps and passes.

Meanwhile, an upper level wave is moving into Southcentral,
bringing patchy light snow from the Mat-Su Valleys to Anchorage
Bowl and to the southern Kenai Peninsula. Another upper level
wave with an associated surface low is tracking near Yakutat with
a band of clouds and snow showers moving into Prince William
Sound to the southeast Panhandle.

Out west, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the central
Bering Sea and Aleutians. A shortwave trough with a surface low
moving upstream of the ridge is bringing gale to storm force winds
and rain west of Amchitka.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The latest operational model runs are in good agreement with the
placement and intensity of synoptic scale features at both the
surface and in the upper levels. Current forecast package is on
track with the Arctic outbreak getting underway over southern
Alaska. This will lead to gusty northerly winds for the bays and
passes, heavy freezing spray, as well as cold wind chills. Some
details are still being ironed out as far as the strength of gap
winds and frigid cold temperatures. Otherwise, forecast confidence
remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy light snow will continue for a brief time, bringing
MVFR reductions to ceiling and visibility at the terminal. By
early this afternoon, VFR conditions will persist through Sunday
as cold air advection and gusty northerly winds move into the
area. There is high confidence of winds to reach at least 35 kt
today with a potential of gusts to reach as high as 45 to 55 kt on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong winds and/or very cold temperatures will be the story for
Southcentral Alaska through Sunday. The cold air is beginning to
move into the region from the north and Northwest this morning.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day in many areas due to
the cold air advection being stronger than minimal heating from
the sun.

The most difficult part of the forecast is figuring out the low
temperatures in conjunction with the winds. Inversions will be
prevented from developing due to the mixing of the low levels of
the atmosphere. This will keep the bitterly cold temperatures
from developing as they typically do in areas such as the Copper
River Basin, but the extreme cold aloft will still bring
temperatures well below zero with the wind blowing. Wind chills
will be very noticeable for all who are outside. Worst areas are
expected to be in the northern Susitna Valley, the Copper River
Basin and through Thompson pass. All of these areas have active
Wind chill advisories for chills of 40 below zero or colder.

With 850 mb temperatures over the Copper River Basin dropping
to -30C and colder, this will create an additional thermal
component for the winds through the Matanuska Valley this
afternoon through SUnday as the cold, dense air accelerates
through the channeled terrain along the Matanuska River valley.
This is expected to bring winds to High Wind Warning levels of 75
mph for the Matanuska Valley this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon. There is also the potential for winds to gust to 60 mph
in north and west Anchorage Sunday so a high wind watch is still
in effect for Anchorage.

Widespread heavy freezing spray will continue in most of the
coastal marine areas. Te worst region will be from lower Cook
Inlet through Shelikof Strait and to the Shumagin Islands. Parts
of this region will likely see not only heavy freezing spray, but
extreme rates of freezing spray with potential for 2 to 4 inches
per hour of ice accumulation in the strongest core of the winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An extremely cold, Arctic air mass is making headway well into the
Southwest this morning as skies clear and as temperatures crash
down into the single digits to teens below 0F across the entire
region. A deep longwave trough extending over the AK interior into
the northern Gulf is contrasting with a sharp ridge over the
Bering to create a very tightened east to west pressure gradient
across the area. This coupled with continued cold air advection
and strong synoptic flow from the north is supporting gusty winds
across portions of the Middle  Valley and down across Bristol
Bay, causing localized areas of blowing snow at times. With little
change in the supporting upper level pattern expected, winds
gusting occasionally as high as 30 to 50 mph will remain possible
for areas including King Salmon, Iliamna and New Stuyahok through
at least Sunday night as very strong northerly winds sitting just
above the surface periodically mix down to ground level. These
winds will tend to keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent
temperatures from dropping much below -10 to -20F for interior
locations. However, winds coupled with these temperatures will be
enough to cause bitterly cold wind chills approaching dangerous
territory at times down to as low as -45F, particularly between
the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay where Wind
Chill Advisories are now in effect for both areas starting later
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An increasingly blocked upper level pattern will set up over the
forecast area as a deep upper trough remains anchored over the
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest with an omega block ridge forming
over the Bering. The most impactful weather will be centered on
the western and eastern side of the ridge for the next couple
days, with rather dramatically contrasting air masses between the
upstream and downstream portion of the ridging aloft. On the cold
side and near the upper level trough, very strong, deep northerly
flow coupled with Arctic air advecting south will support
extremely strong winds along the Alaska Peninsula increasing
today and lasting through much of Sunday, with Hurricane force
gusts as high as 80 kt possible out of bays and passes through
Sunday morning. These winds will weaken as upper level flow veers
from northerly to northeasterly, but will remain gale force with
gusts to storm force along the Alaska Peninsula through late
Sunday night. The winds coupled with cold temperatures dropping
into the teens will result in areas of very heavy freezing spray,
with the highest rates of accretion occurring with the core of
highest winds lasting through Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, a much warmer frontal system will stall across the far
western Bering as it runs up against the blocking ridge of high
pressure. Steady rain and southeast winds between gale and storm
force will follow along and ahead of the front across the western
Aleutians, with most of the rain staying west of Adak through late
Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering...Along the southwestern edge of high pressure in the
Bering Strait on Monday, a widespread swath of easterly gales
blows across the central and western Bering/Aleutians before
diminishing Monday night. Seas approach 30 ft accompanying the
strong gales on Monday, but subside to near 20 ft by Tuesday
afternoon. A smaller area of northeasterly gales near the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay on Monday shift into the northern
Bering by Tuesday morning and then diminish. Gale force gap winds
south of the Alaska Peninsula also diminish Monday night. Tuesday
afternoon a broad trough with embedded lows over the North Pacific
induces another round of easterly gales from Bristol Bay into the
central Bering through Wednesday. By Wednesday morning, seas begin
to build to 20 ft in the central Bering.

Gulf of Alaska...The strong gap winds expected Saturday and
Sunday begin to diminish by Monday, with localized areas of gales
continuing to linger beyond Monday afternoon, particularly near
Kamishak Bay and Shelikof Strait as low pressure exits into the
North Pacific. A front moves north into the Gulf on Tuesday
afternoon, allowing widespread easterly gales to develop in the
southern Gulf. Gale force winds may also develop through the
Barren Islands and southern Cook Inlet and persist through
Wednesday. Seas build to near 20 ft by Wednesday morning in the
far southern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Tuesday marks the beginning of a pattern shift as there is general
model consensus that a strong amplified upper level ridge sitting
over the Bering this weekend shifts northward into the Chukchi
Sea. A large closed upper low to the east of the ridge, over the
western Gulf of Alaska, begins to pinch off the ridge on Tuesday,
retrograding along its southern periphery into and across the
Bering. Ahead of the low, a blast of cold, Arctic air, previously
sitting over the Alaska mainland, is pushed across the Bering,
creating widespread snow showers and the potential for freezing
spray, especially near the Southwest coast. Various surface lows
look to move northward from the North Pacific and push a broad
front across the southern Gulf, AKPEN, and the Aleutians, leading
to a return of warmer, wetter conditions there by Wednesday. The
bulk of the warm, moist air looks to remain confined there as the
strong ridge to the north keeps the front stalled out, leaving
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska colder and drier. Weak warm
advection on the back side of the upper low nonetheless allows a
bit of a warm-up and lighter winds over the Alaska mainland
through the week.

Both GFS and the EC indicate that by Thursday stronger upper-
level ridging extends further south over mainland Alaska, likely
keeping the area clear and dry. GEM, despite a further west
placement of the strong upper-level anticyclone also indicates the
same general northwest to southeast ridge axis, which is more
prone to draw surface lows northward into the Bering. Both GFS and
GEM indicate the potential for a surface low to draw warm, moist
air deeper into the Bering and possibly into Southwest Alaska by
the end of the week. In this setup, temperatures may warm to near
or above freezing across parts of Southwest late Friday.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory: 131 141 145 152 161
High Wind Warning: 111
High Wind Watch: 101
MARINE...Hurricane Warning: 130 150
Storm Warning: 127 131 132 136 138 139 155 177 178 411
Gale Warning: 119-121 125 126 128 129 137 140 141 160 165 172 175
176 180 351 352 412-414
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119-121 125-132 136-139 141 150 155
160 165 180 181 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...CQ