Gale Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

061 
FZAK61 PAFC 021244
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-030145-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A trough of low pressure remains over the Gulf though Tue morning.

$$

PKZ351-030145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 11 to 15 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ352-030145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
344 AM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE 15 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.THU...NE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$

903 
FZAK61 PAFC 030032
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
332 PM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-031430-
332 PM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A trough of low pressure exits the Gulf Mon evening. High Pressure 
overspreads the northwest Gulf Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-031430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
332 PM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ352-031430-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
332 PM AKST Sun Jan 2 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 to 35 kt becoming NE 10 to 25 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.FRI...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

093 
FZAK61 PAFC 031237
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 AM AKST Mon Jan 3 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-040200-
337 AM AKST Mon Jan 3 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A series of weak troughs cross the Southern Gulf through Tue
evening. A front approaches the Southwest Gulf by Wed morning.

$$

PKZ351-040200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
337 AM AKST Mon Jan 3 2022

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ352-040200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
337 AM AKST Mon Jan 3 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
547 AM AKST Sat Jan 1 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad trough with a deep polar low seen on water vapor imagery
continues to move south towards the northern Gulf coast. A surge
of Arctic air wrapping around the north and west side of this low
is spilling across the Alaska state with 850 mb temperatures
ranging -20 to -30 degree Celsius. A cold, dry airmass coupled
with mostly clear skies and strong radiational cooling is allowing
overnight temperatures to drop in the single digits to below zero
across the lower and higher elevation regions. As the trough axis
shifts over the southern mainland, a combination of colder air
advection and strong dynamic support is creating conditions
favorable for strong north-northwesterly winds across the coastal
areas and interior valleys as well as through the gaps and passes.

Meanwhile, an upper level wave is moving into Southcentral,
bringing patchy light snow from the Mat-Su Valleys to Anchorage
Bowl and to the southern Kenai Peninsula. Another upper level
wave with an associated surface low is tracking near Yakutat with
a band of clouds and snow showers moving into Prince William
Sound to the southeast Panhandle.

Out west, a ridge of high pressure is centered over the central
Bering Sea and Aleutians. A shortwave trough with a surface low
moving upstream of the ridge is bringing gale to storm force winds
and rain west of Amchitka.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The latest operational model runs are in good agreement with the
placement and intensity of synoptic scale features at both the
surface and in the upper levels. Current forecast package is on
track with the Arctic outbreak getting underway over southern
Alaska. This will lead to gusty northerly winds for the bays and
passes, heavy freezing spray, as well as cold wind chills. Some
details are still being ironed out as far as the strength of gap
winds and frigid cold temperatures. Otherwise, forecast confidence
remains high.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Patchy light snow will continue for a brief time, bringing
MVFR reductions to ceiling and visibility at the terminal. By
early this afternoon, VFR conditions will persist through Sunday
as cold air advection and gusty northerly winds move into the
area. There is high confidence of winds to reach at least 35 kt
today with a potential of gusts to reach as high as 45 to 55 kt on
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Strong winds and/or very cold temperatures will be the story for
Southcentral Alaska through Sunday. The cold air is beginning to
move into the region from the north and Northwest this morning.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day in many areas due to
the cold air advection being stronger than minimal heating from
the sun.

The most difficult part of the forecast is figuring out the low
temperatures in conjunction with the winds. Inversions will be
prevented from developing due to the mixing of the low levels of
the atmosphere. This will keep the bitterly cold temperatures
from developing as they typically do in areas such as the Copper
River Basin, but the extreme cold aloft will still bring
temperatures well below zero with the wind blowing. Wind chills
will be very noticeable for all who are outside. Worst areas are
expected to be in the northern Susitna Valley, the Copper River
Basin and through Thompson pass. All of these areas have active
Wind chill advisories for chills of 40 below zero or colder.

With 850 mb temperatures over the Copper River Basin dropping
to -30C and colder, this will create an additional thermal
component for the winds through the Matanuska Valley this
afternoon through SUnday as the cold, dense air accelerates
through the channeled terrain along the Matanuska River valley.
This is expected to bring winds to High Wind Warning levels of 75
mph for the Matanuska Valley this afternoon through Sunday
afternoon. There is also the potential for winds to gust to 60 mph
in north and west Anchorage Sunday so a high wind watch is still
in effect for Anchorage.

Widespread heavy freezing spray will continue in most of the
coastal marine areas. Te worst region will be from lower Cook
Inlet through Shelikof Strait and to the Shumagin Islands. Parts
of this region will likely see not only heavy freezing spray, but
extreme rates of freezing spray with potential for 2 to 4 inches
per hour of ice accumulation in the strongest core of the winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An extremely cold, Arctic air mass is making headway well into the
Southwest this morning as skies clear and as temperatures crash
down into the single digits to teens below 0F across the entire
region. A deep longwave trough extending over the AK interior into
the northern Gulf is contrasting with a sharp ridge over the
Bering to create a very tightened east to west pressure gradient
across the area. This coupled with continued cold air advection
and strong synoptic flow from the north is supporting gusty winds
across portions of the Middle  Valley and down across Bristol
Bay, causing localized areas of blowing snow at times. With little
change in the supporting upper level pattern expected, winds
gusting occasionally as high as 30 to 50 mph will remain possible
for areas including King Salmon, Iliamna and New Stuyahok through
at least Sunday night as very strong northerly winds sitting just
above the surface periodically mix down to ground level. These
winds will tend to keep the boundary layer mixed and prevent
temperatures from dropping much below -10 to -20F for interior
locations. However, winds coupled with these temperatures will be
enough to cause bitterly cold wind chills approaching dangerous
territory at times down to as low as -45F, particularly between
the Middle Kuskokwim Valley and interior Bristol Bay where Wind
Chill Advisories are now in effect for both areas starting later
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An increasingly blocked upper level pattern will set up over the
forecast area as a deep upper trough remains anchored over the
Alaska Peninsula and Southwest with an omega block ridge forming
over the Bering. The most impactful weather will be centered on
the western and eastern side of the ridge for the next couple
days, with rather dramatically contrasting air masses between the
upstream and downstream portion of the ridging aloft. On the cold
side and near the upper level trough, very strong, deep northerly
flow coupled with Arctic air advecting south will support
extremely strong winds along the Alaska Peninsula increasing
today and lasting through much of Sunday, with Hurricane force
gusts as high as 80 kt possible out of bays and passes through
Sunday morning. These winds will weaken as upper level flow veers
from northerly to northeasterly, but will remain gale force with
gusts to storm force along the Alaska Peninsula through late
Sunday night. The winds coupled with cold temperatures dropping
into the teens will result in areas of very heavy freezing spray,
with the highest rates of accretion occurring with the core of
highest winds lasting through Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, a much warmer frontal system will stall across the far
western Bering as it runs up against the blocking ridge of high
pressure. Steady rain and southeast winds between gale and storm
force will follow along and ahead of the front across the western
Aleutians, with most of the rain staying west of Adak through late
Sunday night.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Bering...Along the southwestern edge of high pressure in the
Bering Strait on Monday, a widespread swath of easterly gales
blows across the central and western Bering/Aleutians before
diminishing Monday night. Seas approach 30 ft accompanying the
strong gales on Monday, but subside to near 20 ft by Tuesday
afternoon. A smaller area of northeasterly gales near the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay on Monday shift into the northern
Bering by Tuesday morning and then diminish. Gale force gap winds
south of the Alaska Peninsula also diminish Monday night. Tuesday
afternoon a broad trough with embedded lows over the North Pacific
induces another round of easterly gales from Bristol Bay into the
central Bering through Wednesday. By Wednesday morning, seas begin
to build to 20 ft in the central Bering.

Gulf of Alaska...The strong gap winds expected Saturday and
Sunday begin to diminish by Monday, with localized areas of gales
continuing to linger beyond Monday afternoon, particularly near
Kamishak Bay and Shelikof Strait as low pressure exits into the
North Pacific. A front moves north into the Gulf on Tuesday
afternoon, allowing widespread easterly gales to develop in the
southern Gulf. Gale force winds may also develop through the
Barren Islands and southern Cook Inlet and persist through
Wednesday. Seas build to near 20 ft by Wednesday morning in the
far southern Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 8: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Tuesday marks the beginning of a pattern shift as there is general
model consensus that a strong amplified upper level ridge sitting
over the Bering this weekend shifts northward into the Chukchi
Sea. A large closed upper low to the east of the ridge, over the
western Gulf of Alaska, begins to pinch off the ridge on Tuesday,
retrograding along its southern periphery into and across the
Bering. Ahead of the low, a blast of cold, Arctic air, previously
sitting over the Alaska mainland, is pushed across the Bering,
creating widespread snow showers and the potential for freezing
spray, especially near the Southwest coast. Various surface lows
look to move northward from the North Pacific and push a broad
front across the southern Gulf, AKPEN, and the Aleutians, leading
to a return of warmer, wetter conditions there by Wednesday. The
bulk of the warm, moist air looks to remain confined there as the
strong ridge to the north keeps the front stalled out, leaving
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska colder and drier. Weak warm
advection on the back side of the upper low nonetheless allows a
bit of a warm-up and lighter winds over the Alaska mainland
through the week.

Both GFS and the EC indicate that by Thursday stronger upper-
level ridging extends further south over mainland Alaska, likely
keeping the area clear and dry. GEM, despite a further west
placement of the strong upper-level anticyclone also indicates the
same general northwest to southeast ridge axis, which is more
prone to draw surface lows northward into the Bering. Both GFS and
GEM indicate the potential for a surface low to draw warm, moist
air deeper into the Bering and possibly into Southwest Alaska by
the end of the week. In this setup, temperatures may warm to near
or above freezing across parts of Southwest late Friday.

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory: 131 141 145 152 161
High Wind Warning: 111
High Wind Watch: 101
MARINE...Hurricane Warning: 130 150
Storm Warning: 127 131 132 136 138 139 155 177 178 411
Gale Warning: 119-121 125 126 128 129 137 140 141 160 165 172 175
176 180 351 352 412-414
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 119-121 125-132 136-139 141 150 155
160 165 180 181 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...CQ