Small Craft Advisory 511, NWS Anchorage, AK

881 
FZAK51 PAFC 061724 AAA
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Coastal waters forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-070315-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
High pressure across the Gulf weakens through Thu afternoon. A front
moves into the Western Gulf Thu afternoon and a 997 mb low develops 
near Sitkinak Fri morning.

$$

PKZ119-070315-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ120-070315-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt becoming S 10 kt by afternoon. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-070315-
Resurrection Bay-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-070315-
Prince William Sound-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.  
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-070315-
Port Valdez-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 15 kt with 
gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable 
less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-070315-
Valdez Narrows-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-070315-
Valdez Arm-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW wind 10 kt in
the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-070315-
Passage Canal-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-070315-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-070315-
Barren Islands East-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ132-070315-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ136-070315-
Chiniak Bay-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-070315-
Marmot Bay-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-070315-
Shelikof Strait-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain. 
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-070315-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the
afternoon. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ140-070315-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming N 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-070315-
Kachemak Bay-
924 AM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming SW 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming E 10 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Rain. 
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. 
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

752 
FZAK51 PAFC 062255
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-071215-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

High pressure moves over Southeast Alaska for Fri morning. A 1009 mb
low 35 nm South of Castle Cape moves to 100 nm East of Sitkinak at 
994 mb Fri morning, then shifts to 85 nm West of Kodiak City at 997 
mb by Fri afternoon. Its front extends across the Western Gulf 
through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ119-071215-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ120-071215-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-071215-
Resurrection Bay-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming S 10 kt after
midnight. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-071215-
Prince William Sound-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...SE wind 10 kt becoming E 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-071215-
Port Valdez-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-071215-
Valdez Narrows-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt becoming N 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3
ft.
.THU...N wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft.
.THU NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ128-071215-
Valdez Arm-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.THU NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-071215-
Passage Canal-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-071215-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-071215-
Barren Islands East-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ132-071215-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ136-071215-
Chiniak Bay-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-071215-
Marmot Bay-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-071215-
Shelikof Strait-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Widespread rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ139-071215-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-071215-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft.
.THU...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming NE 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-071215-
Kachemak Bay-
255 PM AKDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming NE 15 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN AND MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

954 
FZAK51 PAFC 071147
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-080115-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1004 mb low moves to 125 nm east of Chignik Thu morning and 
dissipates by Thu evening. A 991 mb low moves to 200 nm south of 
Kodiak Fri evening and then to 122 nm south of Kodiak Fri evening.
Its front extends across the western Gulf through Sat morning.

$$

PKZ119-080115-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ120-080115-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ121-080115-
Resurrection Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ125-080115-
Prince William Sound-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ126-080115-
Port Valdez-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind less than 10 kt becoming W 10 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ127-080115-
Valdez Narrows-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 3 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ128-080115-
Valdez Arm-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NE after midnight. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ129-080115-
Passage Canal-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ130-080115-
West of Barren Islands including Kamishak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ131-080115-
Barren Islands East-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ132-080115-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming NW 20 kt after midnight. N
of Dangerous Cape, E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ136-080115-
Chiniak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ137-080115-
Marmot Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ138-080115-
Shelikof Strait-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ139-080115-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ140-080115-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 
ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ141-080115-
Kachemak Bay-
347 AM AKDT Thu Jul 7 2022

.TODAY...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
422 PM AKDT Tue Jul 5 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad upper level low remains centered over the Bering, keeping
cloud cover in place along the Aleutians, Pribilofs, Bering Sea,
and Southwest. An upper level shortwave trough extends over
Southcentral near Kodiak Island and out over the northern Gulf.
Marine stratus remains anchored across the northern Gulf coast
including Prince William Sound and the Copper River Delta.
Meanwhile much of the southcentral mainland remains clear as an
upper level ridge of high pressure maintains its hold over the
Alaska Yukon border.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model solutions are in good synoptic agreement through the short
term. By the end of the week, there is general consensus that the
Bering low will move eastward into the Gulf of Alaska. While there
are a couple of differences in the timing of associated upper
level shortwaves as they move across Southcentral, and also the
location of the center of the low, there is growing confidence
that a shift in the pattern is coming for the weekend with
increasing chances for a cooler wetter pattern for much of the
southern mainland.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Southcentral: Thunderstorm activity will kick off again this
afternoon along the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains. Most
intense thunderstorm activity will be in the northern Copper River
Basin.

The Copper River Basin has come into focus for the next few days
as hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected Wednesday and
Thursday. On Wednesday, temperatures will climb into the upper
70s/low 80s. Generally, the warmest temperatures and lowest RH
values will be in the area running from Glennallen to Chitina to
McCarthy. Gusty southeasterly winds will begin to ramp up midday,
with gusts reaching 25 mph. Winds will diminish overnight and ramp
up again on Thursday, and are expected to be stronger gusting up
to 30 mph Thursday afternoon. While RH values will rebound
slightly Thursday, and temps will be in the mid 70s, the winds
will remain elevated until the evening hours.

Southwest: Fire weather concerns continue to decrease this week as
a large Bering low moves eastward towards Bristol Bay. This will
result in a general cloudier, cooler, and wetter pattern.
Although there is minor uncertainty in the timing and track of the
low, chances for wetting rains are expected to increase over
portions of Southwest, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.
As the low reforms near Kodiak Island, gusty southeasterly winds
will increase through Kachemak gap into the interior Bristol Bay
Thursday and shift a little more easterly by Friday morning.
Precipitation chances continue through Friday as scattered showers
develop on the backside of the low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tuesday night through Friday)...

A weakening upper low over the Kenai Peninsula is quickly falling
apart this afternoon. Cirrus clouds have overspread Homer while
further north, the city of Kenai has experienced clear skies. The
dissipating low will move northward through tonight while
becoming absorbed in increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the
next approaching upper low. Meanwhile, a persistent ridge of high
pressure continues to sit over the Copper River Basin and the
border of Canada. Clear conditions have prevailed throughout the
day from the Susitna Valley eastward into the Copper River Basin.
Warm temperatures are climbing into the mid to upper 70s across
the MatSu Valley and into low 80s for parts of the Copper River
Basin. Gulkana is currently sitting at 81 degrees and could warm
further through the evening hours. Thunderstorm activity for
Southcentral will be confined to far northeastern portions of the
Copper River Basin and also atop the Talkeetnas this evening.

Into Wednesday attention turns to an increasing threat for fire
weather across the Copper River Basin. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night. Winds will
begin to increase on Wednesday as an upper trough begins to push
into Southcentral from the west while high pressure to the east
should limit cloud cover until Thursday, and allow for another
warm day with relative humidity values as low as 20 percent. By
Thursday, increasing cloud cover will see the region experience
cooler temperatures and increasing humidity levels. However,
elevated winds with gusts to 30 mph will maintain the threat for
fire weather into Thursday evening.

A pattern change will gradually occur with the low moving into
Southcentral over the next few days. Associated precipitation
chances will first overspread Kodiak Island late Wednesday,
expanding into the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound
through Thursday night. Further inland, precipitation chances are
more uncertain as moisture will struggle to advance northward.
Current thoughts are that rain will be possible for the eastern
Turnagain Arm on Friday with a lower chance for precipitation to
move into the Anchorage Hillside and Matanuska Valley Friday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Friday)...

Cool and wet conditions will persist through Friday as a longwave
trough becomes established over the Bering Sea and Mainland
Alaska. A Bering Sea low will push its front into Southwest Alaska
by tonight. Rain will mostly fall along the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay coasts with this initial push. The arrival of a cold
front later Wednesday morning will help reinforce precipitation
and push it further inland. Rain could intensify again on Thursday
as a triple point low develops near Kodiak Island. However, as
flow becomes more easterly late on Thursday, precipitation may
gradually diminish due to downsloping off the Alaska Range. There
remains uncertainty with the location and strength of this low;
minor differences in these characteristics could lead to appreciable
differences in total rainfall amounts and could affect the strength
of gusty easterly winds into interior Bristol Bay for Thursday and
Friday.

Overall, this will be a wet couple of days for Southwest Alaska,
with total rain amounts around an inch possible for some areas. In
fact, satellite observations currently show precipitable water
(PWAT) amounts ranging from 1 to 1.2 inches in the Bering Sea,
giving a hint at the amount of moisture on the way. This influx of
moisture could also lead to areas of fog as rain saturates the
surface and lower atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

An active pattern continues for the Bering Sea and Aleutians as
the longwave trough becomes established over the Bering Sea and
Mainland Alaska. The low pressure system we have been tracking is
currently pushing its front across the Eastern Bering Sea and
towards Western Alaska. Rain will continue along the Eastern
Bering and Pribilof Islands through tonight, with the potential
for areas of thick fog that linger after precipitation ends. Less
rain is expected along the Eastern Aleutians, where the front is
weaker.

By mid-day Wednesday, the front exits into Western Alaska. Showers
remain possible through Wednesday across the Central and Eastern
Bering as the low center itself moves over the region. Though
another surface low approaches Attu on Wednesday afternoon, weak
ridging behind the front should keep it at bay. By Thursday, a
triple point low begins to develop near Kodiak Island. There
remain some minor differences with the strength and location of
this low. However, its positioning looks likely to bring gusty
northwesterly gap winds through the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula from Thursday through Friday. Also on Friday, a strong
shortwave tracks along the periphery of the longwave trough,
bringing a swath of rain across the Western Bering and into the
Central Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5: Friday through Sunday)...

Expect winds less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the
Day 3 through 5 period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, the latest operational
model runs are in good agreement with the evolution and
progression of the synoptic scale features, but diverge in the
specific details towards the end of the period. An active weather
pattern change remains on track as an upper ridge from western
Canada to the eastern mainland Alaska slowly weakens as a longwave
trough and closed upper low moves into the eastern Bering Sea. As
we head into next weekend, the trough axis extends from the
Alaska Peninsula through the Gulf. Model guidance has been overall
consistent for this northwest to southeast orientation to bring
increased moisture and appreciable rain for the southern mainland.

At the surface, a frontal boundary extending from a low pressure
system near Kodiak Island progresses northward into Southcentral.
Much of the coastal areas and portions of interior Alaska can
expect widespread wetting rain along with some moderate to locally
terrain enhancing precipitation as increasing southerly flow
draws deep Gulf moisture. Significant rain is also likely for the
Gulf coasts, including Prince William Sound and along the eastern
Kenai Peninsula. With the Kenai River currently running high due
to warmer temperatures and snow melt, any coastal rain could push
the river into flood stage. Temperatures are also expected to
trend back toward normal as lower heights and thicknesses brings
in a cooler air mass spreading eastward across the state. By early
next week, a North Pacific low circulated around the trough may
spread additional periods of moisture and precipitation onshore
across the southern state.

Ensemble means are decently clustered with the pattern evolution
aloft through the medium range period as subsequent shortwaves
rounding the southern edge of the trough brings continued rain
chances and possible gusty winds along the north gulf coast.
Uncertainty emerges, however, as individual model solutions vary
significantly with embedded systems and interactions over time.
Meanwhile, periodic wet conditions continue for the Bering Sea and
Aleutians as the aforementioned trough shifts to the southeast
beginning on Saturday. From Sunday to Tuesday, another shortwave
trough moves from the Chukchi Sea southward into the eastern
Bering, potentially bringing another round of light to moderate
precipitation along the Southwest coast, while an upper ridge
builds across the western Bering.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/MF