Small Craft Advisory 49, NWS Anchorage, AK

988 
FZAK52 PAFC 191300
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-200200-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975mb 400 nm southwest of Attu moves southward and dissipates. 
Its front dips south across the Aleutians and weakens by Thu 
afternoon. A 965 mb North Pacific low Thu morning moves to 35 nm
west of Sand Point at 972 mb by Fri morning. Its front reaches 
the AKPEN Thu afternoon and crosses Bristol Bay Fri morning.

$$

PKZ150-200200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ155-200200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ160-200200-
Bristol Bay-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt in the afternoon.  Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ165-200200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt except NE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt except NE 25 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 10 ft.
Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-200200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-200200-
Unalaska Bay-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft after
midnight. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-200200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-200200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-200200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-200200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ176-200200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-200200-
Adak to Kiska-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 12
ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-200200-
Kiska to Attu-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...Bering side, E wind 45 kt. Pac side, E wind 25 kt
diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 26 ft Bering side...
14 ft Pac side. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...Bering side, NE wind 35 kt. Pac side, NE wind 20 kt. Seas
20 ft Bering side... 13 ft Pac side. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ179-200200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-200200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 25 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt.
.SAT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-200200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-200200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
400 AM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 35 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

216 
FZAK52 PAFC 200127
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-201400-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 968 mb low 540 nm South of Dutch harbor and a 954 mb North 
Pacific low merge to form a 969 mb low over Dutch Harbor for Fri 
afternoon. Its front extends over the Aleutians through Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-201400-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ155-201400-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. From
the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt after 
midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...E wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ160-201400-
Bristol Bay-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Snow.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 kt.
.MON...W wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-201400-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt except NE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft. Freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt except NE 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 10
ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight.
From Port Moller E, E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-201400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ171-201400-
Unalaska Bay-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft after
midnight. Snow and rain.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. Snow and rain.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-201400-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain and snow.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-201400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.FRI...N wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ174-201400-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-201400-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft building to 15 ft after midnight. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers and rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-201400-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain showers.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ177-201400-
Adak to Kiska-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft Bering side...8 ft Pacific side.
.THU...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ178-201400-
Kiska to Attu-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft Bering side... 13 ft Pacific
side. Rain and snow.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ179-201400-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.THU NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ180-201400-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. 
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-201400-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt.
.SAT...NW wind 20 kt.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-201400-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
427 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
544 AM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A complicated upper level pattern exists across much of Alaska
this morning. A strong Arctic upper level low is present across
the North Slope of Alaska. Over southern Alaska, very weak upper
level ridging is working in tandem with the upper low on the North
Slope creating for mostly southerly to southwesterly flow for the
southern Mainland this morning. As a result, mostly just mid to
high level clouds were streaming across Southcentral with isolated
areas of low stratus or patchy fog this morning. Temperatures
across much of Southcentral are colder tonight than as of recent
with mostly single numbers and teens area-wide. There were also
some pockets of below zero temperatures namely Willow at -1 degree
earlier in the night but they have since warmed up to around 5
degrees.

Southwest Alaska also remains mostly quiet for the time
being due to mostly being caught in between the two upper level
systems lending to weak synoptic flow aloft. Therefore, just some
mid to high level clouds were present this morning, though, there
was some low stratus around as well namely over Sleetmute as obs
there were showing an overcast deck for a couple of hours earlier
in the night. Temperatures were mostly single numbers and teens.
An upper level shortwave moving northward along the Alaska
Peninsula is causing lift out ahead of it with moisture streaming
northward lending to some light snow/flurries around the Bristol
Bay coastline this morning including Dillingham.

Two upper level lows were present spinning near each other south
of the Aleutian Chain this morning sending pulses of energy
northward across the Bering. One of these moved through Saint Paul
Island earlier in the night with 1/2 mi visibility, moderate snow,
and breezy conditions as it passed through. This same wave was
bringing a mix of rain and snow along the Eastern Aleutian
Islands. Heavy freezing spray continues west of Saint Matthew
Island off the ice edge due to northeasterly flow. Lastly, ASCAT
Scatterometer data passed over the low south of Amchitka showing a
tightly wound up low with gale force winds around it especially
on its east side. ASCAT data also confirmed high end gales across
the northern Bering off the ice edge.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance overall remains in good synoptic agreement through
Day 2. However, there continues to be differences especially in
regards to the timing and orientation of various different upper
level shortwaves moving along the Aleutian Chain and up the
Alaska Peninsula and into Southcentral. Therefore, this will have
an impact, while generally small, on the sensible weather details
going forward. Where there is better agreement is on the upper
level features just south of the Aleutian Chain, though, even here
things become fuzzy beyond Day 2 as when looking at the surface
fields, model guidance is all over the place on the next low
moving up from the North Pacific.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected over the terminal through this
evening before ceilings begin to lower to around 5000'. Ceilings
are expected to continue lowering during the overnight hours to
MVFR with potentially light snow starting to overspread the area
at this time. Light snow is expected to intensify sometime early
Wednesday morning bringing visibility to MVFR as well. However,
this is low to moderate confidence for light snow. Light northerly
winds are expected for the TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Thursday night)...

An upper level ridge sitting over the Gulf of Alaska and
Southcentral will shift eastward today, opening the flood gates
to a host of short-wave troughs moving up from the Pacific. As a
result, we'll be moving into a much more active weather pattern
as we head through the week and into the weekend. First off, a
short-wave trough along the Alaska Peninsula will approach
Southcentral today and combine with weak overrunning to produce
areas of light snow. Snow will begin on Kodiak Island this morning
and spread to Southcentral this afternoon through tonight. The
short-wave will weaken as it reaches Southcentral, so snowfall
intensity and resultant accumulation will be quite light. Low
level southeast flow will develop across the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains, but it will be relatively weak, so don't expect much
downslope flow. Still, it may be enough to limit snowfall from the
western Kenai to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Most likely
there will be no more than a dusting for these areas.

Meanwhile, a larger more significant short-wave trough over the
North Pacific will cause a weak surface low to deepen and make
its way northward into the central Gulf of Alaska tonight. Model
guidance has been struggling with the track of this low because of
the plethora of upper level short-waves over the Pacific and
overall complexity of the pattern. There is decent agreement on
the track now, which takes it northward across the central Gulf
Wednesday and then toward Yakutat and the northeast Gulf Wednesday
night as additional short-waves moving in from the Bering kick
everything eastward. Such a low track means the bulk of impacts
from strong winds and heavy precipitation will remain over the
Gulf. Some component of low level offshore flow out ahead of the
low tends to keep precipitation light along the Gulf coast and
Prince William Sound. There will be some heavier upslope flow
(east winds) across the mountains of western Prince William Sound
well out ahead of the low tonight into Wednesday. Precipitation
will then quickly end from west to east as the low exits eastward
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

As we continue to Thursday, the long-wave trough will amplify over
the North Pacific, leading to development of a corresponding high
amplitude ridge downstream over the East Pacific and Southeast
Alaska. This will lead to a strengthening southerly jet and
transport of warm and moist air from the Pacific toward southern
Alaska. This pattern tends to lead to chinook winds, warm
temperatures, and mixed precipitation types. While there is
currently uncertainty in the details, it looks favorable for a
warm front to make its way northward to Kodiak Island and the
Gulf Thursday and then continue to Southcentral Thursday night.
Precipitation will start as snow, but would expect a fairly quick
change to rain along the Gulf coast, with heavy snow likely in the
mountains. Moderate to heavy snow will also be possible over the
Susitna Valley thanks to deep southerly flow, while chinook winds
crossing the Chugach and Kenai Mountains should keep precipitation
lighter. Stay tuned, as this will likely be the first of multiple
impactful storms moving up from the Pacific.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Wednesday night)...

A weakening front lingers across the Bering through Tuesday. Light
snow will continue along the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay
coasts through Tuesday afternoon. Further inland, an upper level
trough moving south across the state will bring light snow to the Lower
Kuskokwim and interior Bristol Bay valleys through Wednesday.
Snow accumulations will remain minor, with about 1 to 4 inches
expected. Temperatures drop Wednesday as the upper level trough
continues to descend across the state. However, temperatures look
to increase again on Thursday as a North Pacific low approaches
the Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Wednesday night)...

A compact low will continue to move towards the Western
Aleutians. Behind the low, a warm front will track across the
Aleutians on Tuesday, bringing a quick shot of light to moderate
rain. The front stalls just north of the Chain.

By early Wednesday morning, cold air surging southward across the
Bering will produce snow showers as it meets the warmer waters of
the Bering Sea. Periods of heavy snow, combined with robust
northeasterly winds, are expected to reduce visibilities at times
over the Pribilofs. Most of the Bering and Aleutians transition to
a showery regime by Wednesday night as the cold air continues
tracking southward. However, this will be short-lived over the
Eastern Aleutians as a North Pacific low approaches Thursday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Thursday through Saturday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A front will advance northeast across the Gulf on
Thursday, and then approach the North Gulf Coast by Thursday
evening. Expect a narrow zone of easterly gale force winds to
develop just offshore with a barrier jet, or between Prince
William Sound and Middleton Island and south of the Kenai
Peninsula from late Thursday into Friday morning. Northeast winds
to gales will also be possible near the southern Cook Inlet and
near the Barren Islands during the same timeframe. The winds will
diminish on Friday as the front falls apart, with weaker southerly
winds and seas of 15 to 20 ft spreading over the rest of the
Gulf. Another weak front or low will move into the western Gulf on
Saturday, though currently expect winds with this next system to
be under gale force with seas less than 20 ft across the entire
Gulf Saturday. However, forecast confidence is notably lower for
this second system at this time.

Bering Sea: Northeasterly winds will drop below gale force early
in the day on Thursday, with seas less than 20 ft and winds less
than 35 kt overall expected to prevail through Friday. A North
Pacific low will approach the central Aleutians from the south on
Saturday, potentially sending easterly gale force winds into much
of the southern Bering. Confidence through Friday is high, but
becomes much lower for the North Pacific low and any winds to gale
force on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Struggles with more near-term pattern complexity are keeping much of
the long range out of focus for the moment, although the largest
and most important synoptic driver still looks on track to keep a
warm/wet theme in play for much of the southern mainland. Models
continue to shift wildly around for what will be an ongoing
interaction between two systems at the start of the period on
Friday over the Bering. A polar low drifting out into the northern
Bering from the Seward Peninsula will likely become entangled
with another low pivoting north past the eastern Aleutians and
southern Alaska Peninsula, with the two centers eventually at
least partially merging and moving north and one system towards
the Bering Strait through Saturday. Consistency across models and
between runs for this evolution both remain poor, resulting in
diverging solutions for much of the smaller scale details for
nearly the entire outlook area. One feature that remains better-
resolved is the strong longwave ridge that will develop earlier in
the week over the eastern Gulf and much of the eastern mainland,
with the consensus being that this ridge will remain in place into
early next week. A series of shortwaves will attempt to work
around this ridge from the North Pacific through Monday as they
traverse deep, warm southerly flow, with each system helping to
draw enough warm air north to change snow over to mainly rain
along the immediate Gulf coast. Rounds of mixed precipitation are
also likely for the eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and
Southwest as each system moves north around the ridge. However,
precipitation will be more light and showery over parts of
interior Southcentral due to the southerly cross-barrier flow and
downslope drying. Above normal temperatures over Southwest and
Southcentral continue to be anticipated throughout the entire
extended period.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Special Weather Statement 195.
MARINE...Gale Warning 411 412 413 119 177 178 185 Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning 412 414 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
MARINE/LONG TERM...AS