Gale Warning 16, NWS Anchorage, AK

531 
FZAK61 PAFC 200020
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
320 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-201415-
320 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 988 mb low at 59N 148W moves along the front to 60N 146W at 
1008 mb and dissipates Thu afternoon. Its front extends across the
Northern Gulf through Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-201415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
320 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-201415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
320 PM AKST Wed Jan 19 2022

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.THU...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.

$$

766 
FZAK61 PAFC 201257
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-210115-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 997 mb low at 60N 144W moves to 60N 141W at 1010 mb and 
dissipates Thu afternoon. A front entering the Gulf Thu afternoon 
reaches the north Gulf coast Fri morning and dissipates by Fri 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-210115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 17 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ352-210115-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
357 AM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 17 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.

$$

900 
FZAK61 PAFC 210046
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
346 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-211415-
346 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A front moves over the north Gulf Coast Fri afternoon. A second 
front enters the western Gulf Sat morning and extends across the 
northern Gulf by Sat afternoon. A 982 mb low at 54N 159W Sat morning
moves to 51N 152W at 993 mb by Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-211415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
346 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ352-211415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
346 PM AKST Thu Jan 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 19 to 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

780 
FZAK61 PAFC 211235
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-220145-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A front moves over the North Gulf Coast for Fri afternoon. A second 
front enters the Western Gulf Sat morning and extends across the 
Northern Gulf by Sat afternoon. A 984 mb low at 54N 158W Sat morning 
moves to 59N 153W at 1006 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ351-220145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

.TODAY...S wind 30 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-220145-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
335 AM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

.TODAY...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 20 to 24 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...S wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 16 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKST Tue Jan 18 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A complex upper-level pattern dominates the region as a broad
longwave trough extends from the Northeast Pacific west across the
Aleutians and Bering Sea. Downstream, an upper-level ridge is set
up from Southeast Alaska to Southcentral. There are multiple
shortwaves embedded within the larger trough. Two of these
shortwaves are situated off the coast of the southern Mainland,
with the first just south of the AKPen and the second south of
Nunivak Island. The interaction of these features is driving a
southwesterly flow across Southcentral that is not only keeping
clouds over the region, but is beginning to push precipitation
northward toward the coast. Temperatures remain rather chilly
across Southcentral this afternoon, with single digits for the
Copper River Basin, teens for the rest of the interior, and 20s
along the coast.

For Southwest Alaska, the aforementioned shortwaves are producing
a wide expanse of cloud cover along with areas of light snow,
especially across coastal Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. Much like Southcentral, temperatures for Southwest range
from the single digits across the interior to the 20s for coastal
locations.

Farther west, a vertically stacked low south of Shemya and a
front stretched out across the Central Aleutians continues to
bring mixed precipitation along with easterly gales to the
region. Northeasterly gales also persist over the northern Bering
with heavy freezing spray along the ice edge around Saint Matthew
Island.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remains in good synoptic agreement through the next
couple of days. Discrepancies, however, persist concerning the
timing and position of the various shortwaves moving within the
overall flow. The first issue is the extent of light snow across
Cook Inlet tomorrow, as guidance continues to waiver on the
strength of a shortwave advancing from the west and whether the
dominant feature will be this or a second wave farther east. The
18z runs are keying in on a stronger wave from the west and thus,
the potential for slightly more snow across Cook Inlet and the
Anchorage Bowl for Wednesday.

Models are also better agreement with the upper-level waves over
the Aleutians and Bering, where unsettled weather will continue
through the end of the week. Model guidance diverges more
noticeably by Friday as a shortwaves and a surface low move from
the North Pacific toward the southern mainland. Even with these
differences yielding uncertainty in timing and type of sensible
weather, they all agree in a pattern change that will bring
wetter and warmer weather to much of the southern mainland by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected over the terminal through
around midnight before ceilings begin to lower to around 5000'.
Ceilings are expected to continue lowering during the overnight
hours to MVFR with light snow expected to develop by early morning
Wednesday. Light snow is expected to intensify by mid-morning with
IFR ceilings and visibility likely developing. IFR conditions are
likely to persist through Wednesday afternoon with MVFR ceilings
and visibility possible by Wednesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Thursday night)...

An upper level ridge sitting over the Gulf of Alaska and
Southcentral will shift eastward today, opening the flood gates
to a host of short-wave troughs moving up from the Pacific. As a
result, we'll be moving into a much more active weather pattern
as we head through the week and into the weekend. First off, a
short-wave trough along the Alaska Peninsula will approach
Southcentral today and combine with weak overrunning to produce
areas of light snow. Snow will begin on Kodiak Island this morning
and spread to Southcentral this afternoon through tonight. The
short-wave will weaken as it reaches Southcentral, so snowfall
intensity and resultant accumulation will be quite light. Low
level southeast flow will develop across the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains, but it will be relatively weak, so don't expect much
downslope flow. Still, it may be enough to limit snowfall from the
western Kenai to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Most likely
there will be no more than a dusting for these areas.

Meanwhile, a larger more significant short-wave trough over the
North Pacific will cause a weak surface low to deepen and makes
its way northward into the central Gulf of Alaska tonight. Model
guidance has been struggling with the track of this low because of
the plethora of upper level short-waves over the Pacific and
overall complexity of the pattern. There is decent agreement on
the track now, which takes it northward across the central Gulf
Wednesday and then toward Yakutat and the northeast Gulf Wednesday
night as additional short-waves moving in from the Bering kick
everything eastward. Such a storm track means the bulk of impacts
from strong winds and heavy precipitation will remain over the
Gulf. Some component of low level offshore flow out ahead of the
low tends to keep precipitation light along the Gulf coast and
Prince William Sound. There will be some heavier upslope flow
(east winds) across the mountains of western Prince William Sound
well out ahead of the low tonight into Wednesday. Precipitation
will then quickly end from west to east as the low exits eastward
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

As we continue to Thursday, the long-wave trough will amplify over
the North Pacific, leading to development of a corresponding high
amplitude ridge downstream over the East Pacific and Southeast
Alaska. This will lead to a strengthening southerly jet and
transport of warm and moist air from the Pacific toward southern
Alaska. This pattern tends to lead to chinook winds, warm
temperatures, and mixed precipitation types. While there is
currently uncertainty in the details, it looks favorable for a
warm front to make its way northward to Kodiak Island and the
Gulf Thursday and then continue to Southcentral Thursday night.
Precipitation will start as snow, but would expect a fairly quick
change to rain along the Gulf coast, with heavy snow likely in the
mountains. Moderate to heavy snow will also be possible over the
Susitna Valley thanks to deep southerly flow, while chinook winds
crossing the Chugach and Kenai Mountains should keep precipitation
lighter. Stay tuned, as this will likely be the first of multiple
impactful storms moving up from the Pacific.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Friday)...

A couple of shortwaves will keep light steady snow ongoing for
the rest of tonight across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay
regions. Meanwhile, a cold Arctic trough moving across the
northern half of the state will play a role in generating some
light snow for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley beginning tonight. As
the shortwaves exit out of area, snow will taper off by Wednesday
afternoon with about 1 to 3 inches expected for the duration of
the event.

A shift in the weather pattern will get underway for
the rest of the week as southerly flow sets up over the Gulf of
Alaska. By Thursday, a North Pacific low will bring a chance of
rain/snow mix for the AKPEN and snow across the coastal areas and
interior valleys. As the system departs to the east, another North
Pacific low will follow on its heels on Thursday night, bringing
a greater chance of precipitation through Friday. The main
challenge with this system will be the timing of the warm air
advection from Bristol Bay northward and how quickly the
precipitation type will change from snow to all rain. Stay tuned
as we refine the forecast for later this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

A compact low will phase with a broad trough of low pressure
currently positioned in the western Aleutians. Persistent east-
northeast gale force winds, elevated seas above 20 ft, and rain
are expected to last through Thursday over the northern Bering.
Additionally, snow showers and reduced visibilities are expected
for the Pribilof Islands until late Wednesday night as cold,
Arctic air surges southward across the Bering. Winds will decrease
to small crafts with a small pocket of gales for the Central and
Eastern Aleutians through Thursday night. By Friday, the cold,
Arctic airmass will move southward and help transition the
precipitation type to all snow showers for the western
Bering/Aleutians, while rain will be predominant in the Eastern
Aleutians.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Friday through Sunday)...

Gulf of Alaska...A front extends across the northern Gulf through
Sunday. Forecast confidence starts high but decreases with the
second front's approach. An easterly high end gale force barrier
jet develops along the north Gulf coast, Cook Inlet and Shelikof
Strait diminishes Saturday. Widespread southerly gales spread
over the Gulf behind the front, diminishing Saturday. Seas build
to 20 feet for Saturday, and subside Sunday. A new front enters
the Gulf midday Saturday with gusty winds increasing to southerly
high-end gales over the western Gulf Sunday. Seas to 17 feet
Sunday.

Aleutians / Bering...Arctic high pressure yields to a moderately
strong multi-centered low over the eastern Bering for Sunday.
Forecast confidence starts high, but decreases with the lows'
development. Widespread gales over the central and eastern Bering
diminishes over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Saturday,
but continue over the central and eastern Bering through Sunday.
Seas to 20 feet subsiding. Gusty winds continue around the lows
over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Seas to 15 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

While models continue to show discrepancies with small-scale
features in the short-term, it appears that guidance is gradually
converging on a large scale pattern change by the end of the
week. The takeaway for now is that much of the forecast area can
expect to see a warming trend over the weekend. A longwave trough
will be making its way eastward into the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska
Peninsula on Friday and eventually into the eastern Bering by
Saturday. Strong southerly flow ahead of the trough will bring an
influx of moisture and warmer temperatures into much of Southwest
and all of Southcentral through early Monday as multiple
shortwaves lift around the trough into Southcentral. Any initial
snow along the coast should transition to all rain Friday into
Saturday with interior Southcentral more likely to experience a
mixed precipitation type. Precipitation will be ongoing at the
start of the period late Friday/early Saturday as a front moves
into the Alaska Peninsula and Southcentral coast. This may
persist along the coastal areas into Monday from the Kenai
Peninsula through Prince William Sound into the Copper River
Delta. For the rest of Southcentral, much of this precipitation
will become filtered out by the mountains, though expect showery
conditions as some moisture makes its way through and further
north. The exception to the above normal temperatures will exist
behind the longwave trough as seasonably colder air filters
southward out of the northern Bering into the Western and Central
Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning: 119, 178, 185, 411-413.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning: 179, 185, 412, 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/BL