Gale Warning 739, NWS Anchorage, AK

803 
FZAK52 PAFC 211251
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-220145-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 mb low 20 nm south of Sand Point moves into the Gulf Monday
night. A front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon.
Wednesday morning a 993 mb low will be at 480nm north of Attu.

$$

PKZ150-220145-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt becoming N in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-220145-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ160-220145-
Bristol Bay-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening increasing to 35 kt. Seas 3 
ft building to 12 ft after midnight.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ165-220145-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 6 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. From Port Moller E, N wind 15 kt
becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon, Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ170-220145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.  Snow and rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-220145-
Unalaska Bay-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt in the morning increasing to 35 kt. Seas 9 ft
building to 16 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Widespread snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 
ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. Widespread snow and rain 
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-220145-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 10
ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-220145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-220145-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-220145-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-220145-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ177-220145-
Adak to Kiska-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-220145-
Kiska to Attu-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-220145-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-220145-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ181-220145-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt in the morning increasing to 40 kt. Seas 16 
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-220145-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray W of Saint
Matthew Island. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

455 
FZAK52 PAFC 220014
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-221245-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 983 mb low 20 nm south of Sand Point moves into the Gulf Monday
night. A front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. A
993 mb low will track 480nm north of Attu for Wednesday 
afternoon. High pressure will track across the western Bering 
Monday afternoon and stretch into the central Bering for Wednesday
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-221245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-221245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 30
kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-221245-
Bristol Bay-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 13 ft after
midnight.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ165-221245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Snow showers and rain.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 17 ft. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-221245-
Unalaska Bay-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Snow showers and rain
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-221245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. From Unalaska W, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 
ft.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt decreasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 
14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ174-221245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ175-221245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-221245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ177-221245-
Adak to Kiska-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ178-221245-
Kiska to Attu-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain.
.WED...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 24 ft.

$$

PKZ179-221245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ180-221245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ181-221245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...


.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray after
midnight. Snow showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy freezing spray in the morning.
Snow showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. Heavy Freezing spray.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ185-221245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
314 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Heavy freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. W of Saint Matthew Island, NW wind
30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. W of Saint Matthew Island, N
wind 25 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 9 ft. Heavy Freezing 
spray.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is a broad longwave trough from the Central Aleutians to the
Gulf Of Alaska. At the surface there is a low over the northern
Gulf and another surface low south of Unalaska. On satellite
imagery (GOES Airmass RGB), there are back to back occluded
fronts. South of the chain there is a jet core with an estimated
magnitude of 170 knots. The radars at Kenai and Middleton Island
have been active this early morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement with the major synoptic features
especially through 12z Tuesday. However, there are some minor
differences with the shortwaves aloft. And NAM and GFS some
discrete differences with the rain/snow line over the southern
half of mainland Alaska as well as pockets of mixed p-type. The
big forecast challenge through Tuesday is precipitation types with
freezing rain potential for portions of the western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage bowl.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
TAF package. There is potential for freezing rain at PANC and it
is actively being monitored. Currently, -FZRA is in the TAF from
22Z to 06Z, with the best chances during the afternoon. Any
accumulations of freezing rain are expected to be less than a
tenth of an inch.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The Gulf of Alaska low has pushed to the north Gulf coast early
this morning with the front bringing rain to the Prince William
Sound (PWS) area and radar reflectivity to the western Kenai
Peninsula. As of 5 AM, there has been no reposts of rain in the
western Kenai Peninsula as dewpoint depressions remain between 5
an 10 degrees so it appears the precipitation is evaporating
before it reaches the ground. With the freezing level around 4500
ft in Anchorage this morning (and this should be fairly
representative of the Cook Inlet and PWS areas) there should not
be much snow except at elevation. That leaves rain and or freezing
rain for the populated areas and roadways from Talkeetna
southward. For the Copper River Basin, the atmosphere aloft is
considerably colder so snow would be the precipitation type from
Chickaloon/Tahneta Pass eastward through the Copper River Basin.

So the big issue is the potential for freezing rain from the
western Kenai Peninsula northward into the MatSu Valley to about
Talkeetna, including Anchorage and Wasilla. Temperatures will be
above freezing in much of that area especially by this afternoon.
However, there will be plenty of areas that remain near or just
under freezing which will have some light freezing rain.
Therefore, the winter weather advisories for freezing rain remain
in effect for the areas from the western Kenai northward into the
Susitna Valley. This does not include the eastern Kenai Peninsula
where temperatures have all sufficiently warmed to keep
precipitation rain for both inland and coastal regions.

After today, the atmosphere will cool down aloft so for additional
precipitation chances after SUnday it should start to resemble a
more typical situation of snow below freezing and rain above
freezing without the freezing rain threat. Temperatures start to
more significantly cool aloft on Tuesday as a cold upper level
low approaches the area from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

The remnants of an upper-level ridge over Central Alaska has left
a col over the Alaska Peninsula. Unsettled weather will commence
today across Southern Southwest Alaska as the lack of a strong
pressure gradient will do little to thwart the advancing
shortwaves originating from the approaching North Pacific low.
Colder temperatures now in place over much of Southwest will
provide ample opportunity for multiple precipitation types as the
weak precipitation has begun. Later this morning, a front
approaching the Greater Bristol Bay area will provide consistent
light, showery, precipitation to persist through the weekend.
Temperature profiles suggest an environment favorable for a mix of
freezing rain and snow during this time from Dillingham to
Koliganek. Any ice accumulations associated with this wave is
expected to minimal however with a transition in precipitation to
snow and plain rain by the evening. Precipitation that makes it
north of the Goodnews Bay is expected to all fall as snow. There
is a chance for light precipitation across Southwest Alaska
through tonight and the beginning of the workweek. Several lobes
of upper level energy will transit through the region bringing
areas temporarily higher likelihoods of precipitation. One such
wave for the Kuskokwim Delta region will move in Monday morning
and will likely provide light snowfall into Tuesday morning. In
general, precipitation amounts for the next few days are expected
to be relatively minimal.

As the precipitation plays out over Southwest, weak off-shore
flow will be replaced by colder northerly flow by Tuesday morning,
drawn down by the North Pacific lows movement south of the
Eastern Aleutians. Activity driven by this low is expected to
diminish by mid-week with colder air then present across Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A North Pacific low is spinning south of the Central Aleutians
and will track to the western tip of the Alaska Peninsula by
Monday morning. The low then continues east and will exit into the
western Gulf by Tuesday morning. This low will be spreading vast
swaths of light precipitation across the Aleutians during its
track eastward, as well as bringing cold arctic air south from
Russia and the Northern Bering. This cold northerly flow will
create cooler windy across the Aleutians, spreading eastward on
the backside of the low track. Cool northerly winds will be
reaching Adak tonight, the Pribilofs by Monday afternoon, and
Unalaska by Monday night. Precipitation across the Aleutians
associated with this low today and early tonight will be largely
plain rain, however, a transition to mixed precipitation and snow
will occur with the colder air moving in. Precipitation will
likely switch to wintry mix for the Pribilofs by early Monday
morning and Unalaska by late Monday afternoon. Not more than
dusting of snowfall is expected for places like Cold Bay and Dutch
Harbor.

A transient upper ridge will build in the wake of the
trough and precede the next system of interest. The warm front and
cold front extending from a Kamchatka low is advertised to enter
the western Bering on Tuesday morning and then Wednesday morning,
respectively. General southerly flow with this system will return
warmer temperatures to the Bering and Aleutians by the end of
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)

There is good agreement on a pattern change in the long term
forecast period, with a shift to colder weather likely the latter
half of this week as broad longwave ridging pushes east of the
state. On Wednesday, a decaying low in the northern Gulf of Alaska
in the vicinity of Prince William Sound will support upslope
showers along the coastal mountains through the evening hours.
Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough stretching across western
Alaska helps to advect a cold air mass over Southwest Alaska
eastward, leading to colder temperatures and supporting the
eastward progression of a cold front into Southcentral Alaska. As
a result, Southcentral Alaska can expect snow showers inland from
the coast on Wednesday as the front pushes east and weakens. The
cold air mass also streams into the North Pacific across the
Aleutian Range. In combination with a strong low in the eastern
Gulf of Alaska, this promotes gusty winds to gale force out of
bays and passes on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and
within the western Gulf of Alaska. The development of offshore
flow in response to low pressure in the Gulf also shuts off
precipitation along the north Gulf coastal mountains Wednesday
night.

The next impactful weather system for southern Alaska also exits
far eastern Russia into the northern Bering Sea on Wednesday. The
large low pushes eastward with a potentially storm-force front
moving through the Aleutian Islands. Wednesday night, the front,
weaker further north, reaches the Southwest coast. While there is
some uncertainty, this looks to bring mostly snow to the region
with a sufficiently cold air mass already in place. Beyond this
point, model guidance diverges significantly. GFS and GEM agree
that the bulk of the upper-level energy associated with the low
dive south across the eastern Bering Sea with the front decaying
quickly as it moves inland. The EC presents an alternate
solution, whereby the low remains consolidated much further north
in the Bering Strait and the front pushes eastward, surviving to
bring another round of snow to Southcentral by Friday. The
question will be how far west along the Aleutian Chain the cold,
northerly flow on the back side of the low will begin to surge
across. The further west solutions of the GFS/GEM bring gale force
northwesterly winds across the central/eastern Aleutians on
Thursday, while the more northerly track of the EC spares the
islands and initiates winds out of gaps in the Alaska Peninsula on
Friday. This will also impact where widespread showers will result
if cold air advects over the relatively warm waters of the
central/eastern Bering Sea, which would also affect parts of the
Aleutian Chain and the Pribilof Islands.

By Friday, there is good agreement that low pressure will be
present in the Gulf of Alaska, which will help to draw in and
reinforce colder air over southern mainland Alaska while enhancing
precipitation chances along the north Gulf coast. Gap winds also
shift south of the Alaska Peninsula and into the western Gulf as a
result. At the same time, the next system begins to track into
the far western Bering and pushes its front northward, bringing
warmer conditions and rain to the western/central Bering Sea and
Aleutians through Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 121 145.
MARINE...Storm 413. Gale 170 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 185 411
412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CL
LONG TERM...CQ