Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2022

Gale Warning 679, NWS Anchorage, AK

November 20, 2022

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 20, 2022, 3:11 PM AKST. It was in force for 49 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 20, 2022, 3:11 PM AKST (00:11 UTC)
Expired
Nov 22, 2022, 3:41 PM AKST
In force
49 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

279 
FZAK62 PAFC 210011
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-211400-
311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 982 mb low at 54N 161W moves into the Gulf Monday night. A front
approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 to
13 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers and
snow showers.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft.
.FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-211400-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Freezing
spray. Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$
4 follow-up statements
926 
FZAK62 PAFC 211250
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-220145-
350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low at 55N 159W moves into the Gulf Monday night. A front 
approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday morning a 
993 mb low will be at 61N 173E.

$$

PKZ411-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8
to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.  Rain and snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ412-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.  and rain showers.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-220145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
Snow.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.

$$
814 
FZAK62 PAFC 220002
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-221445-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb low at 55N 159W moves into the Gulf Monday night. A 
front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. A 993 mb 
low will track to 61N 173E for Wednesday afternoon. High pressure 
will track across the western Bering Monday afternoon and stretch 
into the central Bering for Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers and 
snow.
.TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow.
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft.

$$

PKZ412-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ413-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers.
.TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-221445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow
showers.
.TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Freezing spray.
.TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing
spray.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$
071 
FZAK62 PAFC 221302
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-230200-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

High pressure will track across the western Bering Tuesday morning
and expand into the central Bering for Wednesday afternoon. A 
front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. A 993 mb 
low will track to 61N 173E for Wednesday afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-230200-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-230200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

.TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-230200-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Widespread rain and
snow showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft.
.FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-230200-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$
017 
FZAK62 PAFC 230041
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-231345-
341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 mb Central Kamchatka low moves to 62N 177W at 988 mb for 
Thu afternoon. Its front moves into the Central Bering by Thu 
afternoon. A 984 mb North Pacific low forms on the front and moves
to 53N 169W at 994 mb for Thu afternoon. 

$$

PKZ411-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of 58 N. 
Widespread rain and snow showers.
.WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Widespread rain
showers.
.THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft.
.FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-231345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray.
.WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers.
.THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 20, 5:05 AM AKST, 10 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 20, 5:05 AM AKST, 10 hours 6 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

There is a broad longwave trough from the Central Aleutians to the
Gulf Of Alaska. At the surface there is a low over the northern
Gulf and another surface low south of Unalaska. On satellite
imagery (GOES Airmass RGB), there are back to back occluded
fronts. South of the chain there is a jet core with an estimated
magnitude of 170 knots. The radars at Kenai and Middleton Island
have been active this early morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement with the major synoptic features
especially through 12z Tuesday. However, there are some minor
differences with the shortwaves aloft. And NAM and GFS some
discrete differences with the rain/snow line over the southern
half of mainland Alaska as well as pockets of mixed p-type. The
big forecast challenge through Tuesday is precipitation types with
freezing rain potential for portions of the western Kenai
Peninsula and Anchorage bowl.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
TAF package. There is potential for freezing rain at PANC and it
is actively being monitored. Currently, -FZRA is in the TAF from
22Z to 06Z, with the best chances during the afternoon. Any
accumulations of freezing rain are expected to be less than a
tenth of an inch.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The Gulf of Alaska low has pushed to the north Gulf coast early
this morning with the front bringing rain to the Prince William
Sound (PWS) area and radar reflectivity to the western Kenai
Peninsula. As of 5 AM, there has been no reposts of rain in the
western Kenai Peninsula as dewpoint depressions remain between 5
an 10 degrees so it appears the precipitation is evaporating
before it reaches the ground. With the freezing level around 4500
ft in Anchorage this morning (and this should be fairly
representative of the Cook Inlet and PWS areas) there should not
be much snow except at elevation. That leaves rain and or freezing
rain for the populated areas and roadways from Talkeetna
southward. For the Copper River Basin, the atmosphere aloft is
considerably colder so snow would be the precipitation type from
Chickaloon/Tahneta Pass eastward through the Copper River Basin.

So the big issue is the potential for freezing rain from the
western Kenai Peninsula northward into the MatSu Valley to about
Talkeetna, including Anchorage and Wasilla. Temperatures will be
above freezing in much of that area especially by this afternoon.
However, there will be plenty of areas that remain near or just
under freezing which will have some light freezing rain.
Therefore, the winter weather advisories for freezing rain remain
in effect for the areas from the western Kenai northward into the
Susitna Valley. This does not include the eastern Kenai Peninsula
where temperatures have all sufficiently warmed to keep
precipitation rain for both inland and coastal regions.

After today, the atmosphere will cool down aloft so for additional
precipitation chances after SUnday it should start to resemble a
more typical situation of snow below freezing and rain above
freezing without the freezing rain threat. Temperatures start to
more significantly cool aloft on Tuesday as a cold upper level
low approaches the area from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Tuesday)...

The remnants of an upper-level ridge over Central Alaska has left
a col over the Alaska Peninsula. Unsettled weather will commence
today across Southern Southwest Alaska as the lack of a strong
pressure gradient will do little to thwart the advancing
shortwaves originating from the approaching North Pacific low.
Colder temperatures now in place over much of Southwest will
provide ample opportunity for multiple precipitation types as the
weak precipitation has begun. Later this morning, a front
approaching the Greater Bristol Bay area will provide consistent
light, showery, precipitation to persist through the weekend.
Temperature profiles suggest an environment favorable for a mix of
freezing rain and snow during this time from Dillingham to
Koliganek. Any ice accumulations associated with this wave is
expected to minimal however with a transition in precipitation to
snow and plain rain by the evening. Precipitation that makes it
north of the Goodnews Bay is expected to all fall as snow. There
is a chance for light precipitation across Southwest Alaska
through tonight and the beginning of the workweek. Several lobes
of upper level energy will transit through the region bringing
areas temporarily higher likelihoods of precipitation. One such
wave for the Kuskokwim Delta region will move in Monday morning
and will likely provide light snowfall into Tuesday morning. In
general, precipitation amounts for the next few days are expected
to be relatively minimal.

As the precipitation plays out over Southwest, weak off-shore
flow will be replaced by colder northerly flow by Tuesday morning,
drawn down by the North Pacific lows movement south of the
Eastern Aleutians. Activity driven by this low is expected to
diminish by mid-week with colder air then present across Southwest
Alaska.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Tuesday)...

A North Pacific low is spinning south of the Central Aleutians
and will track to the western tip of the Alaska Peninsula by
Monday morning. The low then continues east and will exit into the
western Gulf by Tuesday morning. This low will be spreading vast
swaths of light precipitation across the Aleutians during its
track eastward, as well as bringing cold arctic air south from
Russia and the Northern Bering. This cold northerly flow will
create cooler windy across the Aleutians, spreading eastward on
the backside of the low track. Cool northerly winds will be
reaching Adak tonight, the Pribilofs by Monday afternoon, and
Unalaska by Monday night. Precipitation across the Aleutians
associated with this low today and early tonight will be largely
plain rain, however, a transition to mixed precipitation and snow
will occur with the colder air moving in. Precipitation will
likely switch to wintry mix for the Pribilofs by early Monday
morning and Unalaska by late Monday afternoon. Not more than
dusting of snowfall is expected for places like Cold Bay and Dutch
Harbor.

A transient upper ridge will build in the wake of the
trough and precede the next system of interest. The warm front and
cold front extending from a Kamchatka low is advertised to enter
the western Bering on Tuesday morning and then Wednesday morning,
respectively. General southerly flow with this system will return
warmer temperatures to the Bering and Aleutians by the end of
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)

There is good agreement on a pattern change in the long term
forecast period, with a shift to colder weather likely the latter
half of this week as broad longwave ridging pushes east of the
state. On Wednesday, a decaying low in the northern Gulf of Alaska
in the vicinity of Prince William Sound will support upslope
showers along the coastal mountains through the evening hours.
Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough stretching across western
Alaska helps to advect a cold air mass over Southwest Alaska
eastward, leading to colder temperatures and supporting the
eastward progression of a cold front into Southcentral Alaska. As
a result, Southcentral Alaska can expect snow showers inland from
the coast on Wednesday as the front pushes east and weakens. The
cold air mass also streams into the North Pacific across the
Aleutian Range. In combination with a strong low in the eastern
Gulf of Alaska, this promotes gusty winds to gale force out of
bays and passes on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and
within the western Gulf of Alaska. The development of offshore
flow in response to low pressure in the Gulf also shuts off
precipitation along the north Gulf coastal mountains Wednesday
night.

The next impactful weather system for southern Alaska also exits
far eastern Russia into the northern Bering Sea on Wednesday. The
large low pushes eastward with a potentially storm-force front
moving through the Aleutian Islands. Wednesday night, the front,
weaker further north, reaches the Southwest coast. While there is
some uncertainty, this looks to bring mostly snow to the region
with a sufficiently cold air mass already in place. Beyond this
point, model guidance diverges significantly. GFS and GEM agree
that the bulk of the upper-level energy associated with the low
dive south across the eastern Bering Sea with the front decaying
quickly as it moves inland. The EC presents an alternate
solution, whereby the low remains consolidated much further north
in the Bering Strait and the front pushes eastward, surviving to
bring another round of snow to Southcentral by Friday. The
question will be how far west along the Aleutian Chain the cold,
northerly flow on the back side of the low will begin to surge
across. The further west solutions of the GFS/GEM bring gale force
northwesterly winds across the central/eastern Aleutians on
Thursday, while the more northerly track of the EC spares the
islands and initiates winds out of gaps in the Alaska Peninsula on
Friday. This will also impact where widespread showers will result
if cold air advects over the relatively warm waters of the
central/eastern Bering Sea, which would also affect parts of the
Aleutian Chain and the Pribilof Islands.

By Friday, there is good agreement that low pressure will be
present in the Gulf of Alaska, which will help to draw in and
reinforce colder air over southern mainland Alaska while enhancing
precipitation chances along the north Gulf coast. Gap winds also
shift south of the Alaska Peninsula and into the western Gulf as a
result. At the same time, the next system begins to track into
the far western Bering and pushes its front northward, bringing
warmer conditions and rain to the western/central Bering Sea and
Aleutians through Saturday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 121 145.
MARINE...Storm 413. Gale 170 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 185 411
412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CL
LONG TERM...CQ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 20, 3:24 PM AKSTGale WarningAFC36 hr
Nov 21, 3:51 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 3:51 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC11 hr
Nov 21, 3:51 AM AKSTHeavy Freezing Spray WarningAFC24 hr
Nov 21, 4:08 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC3 days

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2022Every gale warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.