Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2022
Gale Warning 679, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 20, 2022, 3:11 PM AKST. It was in force for 49 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 20, 2022, 3:11 PM AKST (00:11 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 22, 2022, 3:41 PM AKST
- In force
- 49 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
279 FZAK62 PAFC 210011 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-211400- 311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 982 mb low at 54N 161W moves into the Gulf Monday night. A front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. $$ PKZ411-211400- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. .MON NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain showers and snow showers. .TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. .THU...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 14 to 19 ft. .FRI...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ412-211400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. .MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. Freezing spray. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. .TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft. .FRI...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ413-211400- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain. .MON...NW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain showers. .TUE...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ414-211400- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 311 PM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N wind 10 to 25 kt increasing to 25 to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Rain and snow. .MON...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain. .MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 16 to 20 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .FRI...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$
4 follow-up statements
926 FZAK62 PAFC 211250 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-220145- 350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 983 mb low at 55N 159W moves into the Gulf Monday night. A front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday morning a 993 mb low will be at 61N 173E. $$ PKZ411-220145- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 .TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers. .TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain and snow. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ412-220145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray. .TUE...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Freezing spray. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ413-220145- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. and rain showers. .TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$ PKZ414-220145- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 350 AM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Snow and rain. .TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow. .TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. .WED THROUGH THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. $$
814 FZAK62 PAFC 220002 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-221445- 302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 983 mb low at 55N 159W moves into the Gulf Monday night. A front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. A 993 mb low will track to 61N 173E for Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will track across the western Bering Monday afternoon and stretch into the central Bering for Wednesday afternoon. $$ PKZ411-221445- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers and snow. .TUE...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Snow. .TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .WED...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft. .THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 17 to 24 ft. $$ PKZ412-221445- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. .TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft. Freezing spray. .WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 20 ft. .FRI...N wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .SAT...E wind 30 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. $$ PKZ413-221445- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 ...GALE WARNING TUESDAY... .TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. .TUE...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Rain showers. .TUE NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft. .THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .FRI...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .SAT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ414-221445- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 302 PM AKST Mon Nov 21 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .TUE...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 18 ft. Freezing spray. .TUE NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray. .WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .SAT...NE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. $$
071 FZAK62 PAFC 221302 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-230200- 402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... High pressure will track across the western Bering Tuesday morning and expand into the central Bering for Wednesday afternoon. A front approaches the western Bering Tuesday afternoon. A 993 mb low will track to 61N 173E for Wednesday afternoon. $$ PKZ411-230200- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 ...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Widespread rain showers. .TONIGHT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain. .WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 15 to 19 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. .THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .FRI THROUGH SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ412-230200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 .TODAY...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Freezing spray. .WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain. .WED NIGHT...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. .THU...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .SAT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ413-230200- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 ...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Widespread rain and snow showers. .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 18 ft. .FRI...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. $$ PKZ414-230200- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 402 AM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. Freezing spray. .TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming 20 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 10 to 14 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers. .WED...NW wind 20 to 35 kt becoming W 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. .THU THROUGH FRI...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. $$
017 FZAK62 PAFC 230041 OFFALU Offshore Waters Forecast National Weather Service Anchorage AK 341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height. PKZ499-231345- 341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 980 mb Central Kamchatka low moves to 62N 177W at 988 mb for Thu afternoon. Its front moves into the Central Bering by Thu afternoon. A 984 mb North Pacific low forms on the front and moves to 53N 169W at 994 mb for Thu afternoon. $$ PKZ411-231345- Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International Dateline- 341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .TONIGHT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Widespread rain showers. .WED...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 14 to 18 ft. .WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .THU...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .THU NIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 17 ft. .FRI THROUGH SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. $$ PKZ412-231345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N- 341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 .TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray N of 58 N. Widespread rain and snow showers. .WED...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Widespread rain showers. .WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .THU...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .THU NIGHT...W wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 19 ft. .FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .SAT...SE wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. $$ PKZ413-231345- Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N- 341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 .TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. .WED...SW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Widespread rain showers. .WED NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. Widespread rain showers. .THU...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft. .THU NIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 16 ft. .FRI...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. .SAT...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 11 to 17 ft. .SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. $$ PKZ414-231345- Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W- 341 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2022 .TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Freezing spray. .WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .WED NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain showers. .THU...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .THU NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft. .FRI...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. .SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. .SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 20, 5:05 AM AKST, 10 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 20, 5:05 AM AKST, 10 hours 6 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 505 AM AKST Sun Nov 20 2022 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is a broad longwave trough from the Central Aleutians to the Gulf Of Alaska. At the surface there is a low over the northern Gulf and another surface low south of Unalaska. On satellite imagery (GOES Airmass RGB), there are back to back occluded fronts. South of the chain there is a jet core with an estimated magnitude of 170 knots. The radars at Kenai and Middleton Island have been active this early morning. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in decent agreement with the major synoptic features especially through 12z Tuesday. However, there are some minor differences with the shortwaves aloft. And NAM and GFS some discrete differences with the rain/snow line over the southern half of mainland Alaska as well as pockets of mixed p-type. The big forecast challenge through Tuesday is precipitation types with freezing rain potential for portions of the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage bowl. && .AVIATION... PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the TAF package. There is potential for freezing rain at PANC and it is actively being monitored. Currently, -FZRA is in the TAF from 22Z to 06Z, with the best chances during the afternoon. Any accumulations of freezing rain are expected to be less than a tenth of an inch. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... The Gulf of Alaska low has pushed to the north Gulf coast early this morning with the front bringing rain to the Prince William Sound (PWS) area and radar reflectivity to the western Kenai Peninsula. As of 5 AM, there has been no reposts of rain in the western Kenai Peninsula as dewpoint depressions remain between 5 an 10 degrees so it appears the precipitation is evaporating before it reaches the ground. With the freezing level around 4500 ft in Anchorage this morning (and this should be fairly representative of the Cook Inlet and PWS areas) there should not be much snow except at elevation. That leaves rain and or freezing rain for the populated areas and roadways from Talkeetna southward. For the Copper River Basin, the atmosphere aloft is considerably colder so snow would be the precipitation type from Chickaloon/Tahneta Pass eastward through the Copper River Basin. So the big issue is the potential for freezing rain from the western Kenai Peninsula northward into the MatSu Valley to about Talkeetna, including Anchorage and Wasilla. Temperatures will be above freezing in much of that area especially by this afternoon. However, there will be plenty of areas that remain near or just under freezing which will have some light freezing rain. Therefore, the winter weather advisories for freezing rain remain in effect for the areas from the western Kenai northward into the Susitna Valley. This does not include the eastern Kenai Peninsula where temperatures have all sufficiently warmed to keep precipitation rain for both inland and coastal regions. After today, the atmosphere will cool down aloft so for additional precipitation chances after SUnday it should start to resemble a more typical situation of snow below freezing and rain above freezing without the freezing rain threat. Temperatures start to more significantly cool aloft on Tuesday as a cold upper level low approaches the area from the west. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)... The remnants of an upper-level ridge over Central Alaska has left a col over the Alaska Peninsula. Unsettled weather will commence today across Southern Southwest Alaska as the lack of a strong pressure gradient will do little to thwart the advancing shortwaves originating from the approaching North Pacific low. Colder temperatures now in place over much of Southwest will provide ample opportunity for multiple precipitation types as the weak precipitation has begun. Later this morning, a front approaching the Greater Bristol Bay area will provide consistent light, showery, precipitation to persist through the weekend. Temperature profiles suggest an environment favorable for a mix of freezing rain and snow during this time from Dillingham to Koliganek. Any ice accumulations associated with this wave is expected to minimal however with a transition in precipitation to snow and plain rain by the evening. Precipitation that makes it north of the Goodnews Bay is expected to all fall as snow. There is a chance for light precipitation across Southwest Alaska through tonight and the beginning of the workweek. Several lobes of upper level energy will transit through the region bringing areas temporarily higher likelihoods of precipitation. One such wave for the Kuskokwim Delta region will move in Monday morning and will likely provide light snowfall into Tuesday morning. In general, precipitation amounts for the next few days are expected to be relatively minimal. As the precipitation plays out over Southwest, weak off-shore flow will be replaced by colder northerly flow by Tuesday morning, drawn down by the North Pacific lows movement south of the Eastern Aleutians. Activity driven by this low is expected to diminish by mid-week with colder air then present across Southwest Alaska. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)... A North Pacific low is spinning south of the Central Aleutians and will track to the western tip of the Alaska Peninsula by Monday morning. The low then continues east and will exit into the western Gulf by Tuesday morning. This low will be spreading vast swaths of light precipitation across the Aleutians during its track eastward, as well as bringing cold arctic air south from Russia and the Northern Bering. This cold northerly flow will create cooler windy across the Aleutians, spreading eastward on the backside of the low track. Cool northerly winds will be reaching Adak tonight, the Pribilofs by Monday afternoon, and Unalaska by Monday night. Precipitation across the Aleutians associated with this low today and early tonight will be largely plain rain, however, a transition to mixed precipitation and snow will occur with the colder air moving in. Precipitation will likely switch to wintry mix for the Pribilofs by early Monday morning and Unalaska by late Monday afternoon. Not more than dusting of snowfall is expected for places like Cold Bay and Dutch Harbor. A transient upper ridge will build in the wake of the trough and precede the next system of interest. The warm front and cold front extending from a Kamchatka low is advertised to enter the western Bering on Tuesday morning and then Wednesday morning, respectively. General southerly flow with this system will return warmer temperatures to the Bering and Aleutians by the end of Tuesday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday) There is good agreement on a pattern change in the long term forecast period, with a shift to colder weather likely the latter half of this week as broad longwave ridging pushes east of the state. On Wednesday, a decaying low in the northern Gulf of Alaska in the vicinity of Prince William Sound will support upslope showers along the coastal mountains through the evening hours. Meanwhile, a strong shortwave trough stretching across western Alaska helps to advect a cold air mass over Southwest Alaska eastward, leading to colder temperatures and supporting the eastward progression of a cold front into Southcentral Alaska. As a result, Southcentral Alaska can expect snow showers inland from the coast on Wednesday as the front pushes east and weakens. The cold air mass also streams into the North Pacific across the Aleutian Range. In combination with a strong low in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, this promotes gusty winds to gale force out of bays and passes on the south side of the Alaska Peninsula and within the western Gulf of Alaska. The development of offshore flow in response to low pressure in the Gulf also shuts off precipitation along the north Gulf coastal mountains Wednesday night. The next impactful weather system for southern Alaska also exits far eastern Russia into the northern Bering Sea on Wednesday. The large low pushes eastward with a potentially storm-force front moving through the Aleutian Islands. Wednesday night, the front, weaker further north, reaches the Southwest coast. While there is some uncertainty, this looks to bring mostly snow to the region with a sufficiently cold air mass already in place. Beyond this point, model guidance diverges significantly. GFS and GEM agree that the bulk of the upper-level energy associated with the low dive south across the eastern Bering Sea with the front decaying quickly as it moves inland. The EC presents an alternate solution, whereby the low remains consolidated much further north in the Bering Strait and the front pushes eastward, surviving to bring another round of snow to Southcentral by Friday. The question will be how far west along the Aleutian Chain the cold, northerly flow on the back side of the low will begin to surge across. The further west solutions of the GFS/GEM bring gale force northwesterly winds across the central/eastern Aleutians on Thursday, while the more northerly track of the EC spares the islands and initiates winds out of gaps in the Alaska Peninsula on Friday. This will also impact where widespread showers will result if cold air advects over the relatively warm waters of the central/eastern Bering Sea, which would also affect parts of the Aleutian Chain and the Pribilof Islands. By Friday, there is good agreement that low pressure will be present in the Gulf of Alaska, which will help to draw in and reinforce colder air over southern mainland Alaska while enhancing precipitation chances along the north Gulf coast. Gap winds also shift south of the Alaska Peninsula and into the western Gulf as a result. At the same time, the next system begins to track into the far western Bering and pushes its front northward, bringing warmer conditions and rain to the western/central Bering Sea and Aleutians through Saturday. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 101 111 121 145. MARINE...Storm 413. Gale 170 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 185 411 412 414. && SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CL LONG TERM...CQ
The office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 3:24 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:51 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:51 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 11 hr | |
| Nov 21, 3:51 AM AKST | Heavy Freezing Spray Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 21, 4:08 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 3 days |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.