Gale Warning 683, NWS Anchorage, AK

141 
FZAK62 PAFC 260011
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
311 PM AKST Fri Nov 25 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-261345-
311 PM AKST Fri Nov 25 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A front extending from a 970 mb North Pacific low moves across 
the Western Aleutians on Sat afternoon. A 998 mb low forms on the 
front at 53N 179E Sat night and moves to 57N 175E by Sun 
afternoon. Its front extends into the Central Bering for Sun 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
311 PM AKST Fri Nov 25 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ412-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
311 PM AKST Fri Nov 25 2022

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming N up to 15 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
311 PM AKST Fri Nov 25 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind up to 20 kt becoming E 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ414-261345-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
311 PM AKST Fri Nov 25 2022

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...N wind up to 15 kt becoming E 10 to 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

441 
FZAK62 PAFC 261150
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
250 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-270145-
250 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 mb low will move to 54N 180E Saturday evening. The low then
moves to 57N 165E at 976 mb Monday morning. An 1017 mb low will
develop over Bristol Bay Monday morning.

$$

PKZ411-270145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
250 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ412-270145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
250 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-270145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
250 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 to 35 kt increasing to 30 to 40 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-270145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
250 AM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.WED...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

508 
FZAK62 PAFC 270007
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
307 PM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-271530-
307 PM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 996 mb low at 52N 176E moves to 57N 174E at 993 mb for Sun
afternoon. It curves towards the Kamchatka Peninsula through Mon 
afternoon. A 1017 mb low develops at 58N 166W on Mon morning and 
exits into the Western Gulf at 1015 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-271530-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
307 PM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-271530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
307 PM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 50 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.MON...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-271530-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
307 PM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ414-271530-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
307 PM AKST Sat Nov 26 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.

$$

068 
FZAK62 PAFC 271244
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 AM AKST Sun Nov 27 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-280230-
344 AM AKST Sun Nov 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 mb low at 55N 178E moves to 58N 175E at 996 mb for Sun 
afternoon as it exits towards the Kamchatka Peninsula. A 1017 mb 
low develops at 57N 164W on Mon morning and exits into the Western
Gulf at 1015 mb by Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
344 AM AKST Sun Nov 27 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...N wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.THU...S wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
344 AM AKST Sun Nov 27 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming S 10 to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt becoming up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ413-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
344 AM AKST Sun Nov 27 2022

.TODAY...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ414-280230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
344 AM AKST Sun Nov 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt becoming S 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.  Rain and snow.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind up to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKST Thu Nov 24 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A negatively tilted through extending southeastward across
Southcentral is bringing active weather to the region in short-term.
Associated precipitation tracking across the western Gulf will
move onshore this evening. More zonal flow is seen across
Southwest Alaska leading to drier conditions and partly cloudy
skies. A weak ridge is bringing benign conditions to much of the
Bering, with slightly stronger northwesterly winds south of the
AKPEN between these large scale features.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The GFS remains a significant outlier with regards to a low
developing and tracking through the Gulf late tonight into Friday.
Its position allows for a band of snow to continue through Friday
evening and thus would bring much higher totals to Anchorage and
the Mat-Su. All other models bring an initial shot of snow to the
area late tonight into early Friday before quickly ending. This
is the preferred solution at this time. Source layer temperatures
are near -15C. As such, lighter, more fluffy snow may yield to
slightly higher totals but much lower overall than the GFS
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR this evening as snow moves into
the region. Brief IFR visibilities are possible during heavier
periods of snow. VFR conditions will return by Friday afternoon.
Light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday night)...

A shallow, negatively-tilted, upper-level trough continues
extending into Southcentral from the west and will bring a quick
round of light, widespread snow to Southcentral. Snowfall is
expected to begin for the Anchorage area and Mat-Su Valleys this
evening and then taper off through Friday morning as wind
generally shifts westerly and drier air moves in. The Copper
River Basin can expect to see the bulk of the snowfall on Friday
morning. Snow is expected to linger along coastal Prince William
Sound locations (Valdez and Cordova) through Friday night due to a
surface low that develops over the Gulf. Overall with this
system, the greatest snow amounts are advertised for the Hatcher
Pass area, Paxson area, and northeast Prince William Sound. The
aforementioned low will continue exiting to the southeast while
high pressure builds over the Mainland. As a result, precipitation
across Southcentral clears by Saturday and gusty northerly
offshore winds develop along northern Gulf coast, especially
through areas of channeled terrain like Thompson Pass. Cold, dry,
and clear conditions are expected to persist through the end of
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Sunday)...

Precipitation will taper off this evening across all of Southwest
as a front progresses into the western Gulf. A ridge of high
pressure then builds over the Bering which will result in cool
northwesterly flow making its way back into the region. The return
of a colder air mass should help bring temperatures back down
into the 20s for highs and 0s to 10s for lows for both Friday and
Saturday. Any new snowfall through the end of the week should stay
generally confined to areas favored for upslope flow along the
Kuskokwim Mountains and Aleutian/Alaska Ranges. One exception will
pertain to a small, fast-moving shortwave that will move
southeast on Friday between the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. A
quick flurry of snow showers will likely follow this system as it
tracks through, with the best chance for light snow over southern
portions of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta for Friday
afternoon. Otherwise, expect cool and quiet conditions to persist
across the region through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Sunday)...

A brief lull in the pattern is expected for most of Friday into
Friday night as a broad upper-level ridge expands across the
Bering. Westerly small craft winds near Saint Matthew Island and
occasional snow showers moving into the Pribilofs are forecasted
for Friday. On Saturday, the ridge axis will begin to shift east
as a North Pacific low approaches the western Aleutians. Winds
will pick up from the east and rain will begin as the low's front
approaches on Saturday morning across western parts of the Chain.
Rain will spread east out to Atka and Dutch harbor by Saturday
evening as the low crosses into the western Bering. Easterly gale
force to winds will shift into the central Aleutians through
Saturday evening and track northeastward before exiting the
northern Bering early next week.

&&.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The key feature in the long term is a building ridge over the
mainland, creating a highly amplified pattern for next week. By
Monday afternoon, an upper level trough over the Alaska-Yukon
border will be departing eastward. As an upper level ridge to the
west builds in, gusty outflow winds, particularly along the
northern Gulf coast, will be the main concern for much of Monday
into Tuesday. By Tuesday morning, an upper level shortwave
dropping southward will likely enhance the northerly winds for a
brief period. As the ridge builds over the mainland Wednesday,
generally quiet conditions are expected for Southcentral.
Meanwhile attention shifts to Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula
as models are all hinting at the arrival of a shortwave trough
Wednesday into Thursday. While confidence is low due to lack of
model agreement, this feature does have the potential to introduce
onshore flow and increase chances of precipitation for the end of
the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 120 130 131 150 155 176-178 185 351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...NS
LONG TERM...KO